Días llevo observando este sistema .... pero vamos lo que comentas Pepe el JTWC lo ve como un churrasco ,lo tiene muy crudo , pero claro esta que es todo un machote ,lleva estacionario ya varios días aguantando una cizalladura bestial ....
Pero por el momento
91BINVEST.
15kts-
1010mb-60N-835E
VORTICITY AT 850 HPA LEVEL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE HAS INCREASED DURING PAST 06 HRS. THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE, WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 120N AT 200 HPA LEVEL. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS). THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILATION (MJO) INDEX LIES OVER THE EAST EQUATORTIAL INDIAN OCEAN WITH LOW AMPLITUDE (Ë‚0.5) WHICH IS FAVOURABLE FOR GENESIS, BUT NOT FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION INTO CYCLONIC STORM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (260-280 C), AND THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL IS LESS THAN 40 KJ/CM2, WHICH ARE NOT FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. CONSIDERING ALL THESE,
THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY INTO A CYCLONIC STORM AND IT WOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS.Lo único favorable es la anomalía del SST en la Bahía de Bengala en su parte más al S, (SE de Sri Lanka ), claro esta + 1.00 ....pero por lo demás...
Saludos.
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