Igual fue el Iván:

http://www.atmos.umd.edu/~stevenb/hurr/98/ivan/index.html

Mirando el mapa de la trayectoria, pasó muy cerca de Azores y luego rumbo a la Península...

Ophelia ademas de moverse despacio, cada vez se va encontrando con aguas mas calidas, asi que cada vez tiene mas gasolina para reforzarse, asi que cuidado, que como paso con Katrina, antes de llegar a Florida, podria reforzarse aun mas

Cita de: sasa en Miércoles 07 Septiembre 2005 15:49:27 PM
Ophelia ademas de moverse despacio, cada vez se va encontrando con aguas mas calidas, asi que cada vez tiene mas gasolina para reforzarse, asi que cuidado, que como paso con Katrina, antes de llegar a Florida, podria reforzarse aun mas

Eso es,. podría dejar importantes inundaciones 

Cita de: vigilant en Miércoles 07 Septiembre 2005 16:42:01 PM

Cita de: sasa en Miércoles 07 Septiembre 2005 15:49:27 PM
Ophelia ademas de moverse despacio, cada vez se va encontrando con aguas mas calidas, asi que cada vez tiene mas gasolina para reforzarse, asi que cuidado, que como paso con Katrina, antes de llegar a Florida, podria reforzarse aun mas

Eso es,. podría dejar importantes inundaciones 

Por lo menos no es la misma zona que afecto al Katrina

Cita de: vigilant en Miércoles 07 Septiembre 2005 16:42:01 PM

Cita de: sasa en Miércoles 07 Septiembre 2005 15:49:27 PM
Ophelia ademas de moverse despacio, cada vez se va encontrando con aguas mas calidas, asi que cada vez tiene mas gasolina para reforzarse, asi que cuidado, que como paso con Katrina, antes de llegar a Florida, podria reforzarse aun mas

Eso es,. podría dejar importantes inundaciones 

Asi es,ya estan dando avisos :

Local Hurricane Statement
Sponsored by State Farm
Expires 12:00 PM EDT on Septiembre 07, 2005

Statement as of 5:55 AM EDT on Septiembre 07, 2005


... Tropical Storm Ophelia making northward progress while moving
nearly parallel to the coast...

... New information...
the Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward and is now in
effect as far north as Flagler Beach. However... the Tropical Storm
Warning has been dropped from Sebastian Inlet southward.

... Watches and warnings...
a Tropical Storm Warning is currently in effect from Sebastian
Inlet to Flagler Beach.

... Areas affected...
this statement emphasizes actions that should be taken in the
following coastal counties... Indian River... Brevard... and Volusia
counties. Additionally... the counties of Martin... Saint
Lucie... Okeechobee... Osceola... Orange... Seminole... and lake should
stay closely informed since there is some uncertainty in the
forecast.

... Storm information...
at 5 am... the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was located near
latitude 28.3 north... longitude 78.9 west or about 105 miles east
of Cape Canaveral. Ophelia is moving toward the north northwest at 8
mph. This motion is expected to continue but Ophelia is forecast to
gradually slow its forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 40
mph with higher gusts... and some further strengthening is likely
today.

... Precautionary/preparedness actions...
Ophelia is forecast to intensify slowly to a strong tropical storm
by Thursday... and remain offshore. Beyond 36 hours... the
forecast becomes more uncertain. Residents are urged to keep informed
to the latest forecast... smartly making the adjustments to their
daily and weekly plans. Review personal or business action plans and
replenish hurricane supply kits. Initial preparations should be made
for strong tropical storm force winds within the watch and warning
areas... recalling that it remains peak hurricane season.

... Marine impacts...
small craft are urged to remain in port. Tropical storm force
winds... with gusts in squalls... are forecast to spread northward over
the near shore waters to affect much of the coastal waters during the
day Wednesday through Friday as Ophelia slows its forward speed.
Seas will build to 12 feet or higher from Sebastian Inlet to Flagler
Beach.

... Flood impacts...
locally heavy rain associated with outer bands from Ophelia
continue to affect east central Florida and will likely do so
over the next few days. Amounts of 3 to 5 inches are possible...
especially north of a line from Cocoa Beach to Orlando. Isolated
event totals could reach 6 to 8 inches. As a result... there is
a moderate threat for flooding. A Flood Watch is in effect for
Volusia... Seminole... Orange... and North Brevard counties. Flooding
will be most likely to occur in urban locations... as well as poorly
drained and low lying areas that are more susceptible to flooding.

... Wind impacts...
tropical storm force wind gusts in the outer rainbands are expected
today within passing squalls... mainly along the coast within the
warning area. On the current forecast track... sustained tropical
storm force winds may start to impact parts of the coastline
early Thursday... especially for Brevard County near Cape Canaveral...
and spread northward into Volusia near New Smyrna Beach and Daytona
Beach. Since Ophelia is moving nearly parallel to the
coastline... there are currently no inland watches or warnings in
effect.

... Storm surge flood and storm tide impacts...
surge heights of 2 to 3 feet are typical for a tropical storm... but
should not be realized with Ophelia since its right side is
forecast to remain over the marine area. However... due to the
persistent... long fetch of increasing onshore flow... battering waves
will impact beaches for the next couple days. This is likely to
result in beach erosion around the time of each high tide for the
next few days... leading to a major beach erosion event. The greatest
impacts will likely be over Brevard and Volusia counties... where the
onshore winds will persist for two days or more.

... Tornado impacts...
there is a very low threat for an isolated brief tornado... mainly
within the coastal zone from Sebastian Inlet to Flagler Beach.

... Next update...
the next statement will be issued around noon... or sooner if
conditions warrant.

Flood Watch / Flood Statement
Sponsored by State Farm
Expires 6:15 PM EDT on Septiembre 07, 2005

Statement as of 5:28 AM EDT on Septiembre 07, 2005


... Flood Watch in effect until Thursday morning at 10 am EDT...

The National Weather Service in Melbourne has issued a

* Flood Watch for east central Florida

* until 10 am Thursday morning

* abundant tropical moisture and brisk northeast flow associated
with Tropical Storm Ophelia will push numerous showers and
isolated storms onshore from the Atlantic into Thursday. The
showers will be the more persistent over northeast sections of
east central Florida. Quick rainfall amounts of an inch may
occur as Showers Pass. Rainfall accumulations up to three to
four inches will be possible through Thursday morning in areas
where more than one round of rainfall moves through.

* Flooding will be most likely to occur in urban locations... as
well as poorly drained and low lying areas that are more
susceptible to flooding.

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. Do not drive your vehicle into areas where
water covers the Road. The water depth may be too great to allow
your car to cross safely. Vehicles caught in rising water should
be abandoned quickly. It takes less than two feet of water for most
vehicles to become incapacitated and begin to float.
Turn around... don't drown.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should take
protective measures against flooding... and be prepared to take
quick action should flooding develop.

VTEC:/X.NEW.KMLB.FA.A.0002.050907T0928Z-050908T1500Z/

Y empiezan los primeros efectos,que sea lo menos posible :



09/06/2005 0720 PM

Jacksonville, Duval County.

Flood, reported by trained spotter.


            One foot of water at intersection of park St and
            Edgewood Ave.





09/06/2005 0720 PM

Jacksonville, Duval County.

Flood, reported by trained spotter.


            One foot of water at intersection of park and Edgewater
            streets.

Saludos desde orense despues de la tarde-noche de lluvias intensas caidas ayer ....

Ultimo aviso del NHC

000
WTCA41 TJSJ 071506
TCPSP1

BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO   5
NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MIERCOLES 7 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005

...OPHELIA CONTINUA FORTALECIENDOSE...SE ESPERA QUE SE MANTEGA JUSTO
FUERA DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS...   

PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA ESTE
DE FLORIDA DESDE SEBASTIAN INLET HACIA EL NORTE HASTA FLAGLER BEACH.
UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL SON ESPERADAS EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24
HORAS.

PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA
COSTA NORESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE FLAGLER BEACH HASTA
FERNANDINA BEACH. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE
SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO
VIGILANCIA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS.

LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN EL NORTE Y CENTRO DE LA
FLORIDA...Y EN LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DEBEN
MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA.

PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE
REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA
LOCAL.

A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA
ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 28.8 NORTE... LONGITUD 79.3
OESTE O COMO A 85 MILLAS AL ESTE DE CABO CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

OPHELIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH. SE
ESPERA QUE ESTE LENTO MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O
DOS.

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO A CERCA DE 50 MPH CON
RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS
PROXIMAS 24 HORAS.

LOS VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTINEDEN HASTA 70 MILLAS
PRINCIPALMENTE AL NORTE Y ESTE DEL CENTRO.

LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 1000 MB...29.53 PULGADAS.

SE ESPERAN ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS...CON
CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAYORES DE HASTA 8 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE SECTORES
DEL CENTRO Y NORTE DE FLORIDA...Y AL SURESTE DE GEORGIA.

SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DE RESACAS Y CORRIENTES
SUBMARINAS A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS
DESDE LAS CAROLINAS HACIA EL SUR HASTA FLORIDA.

REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM EDT...28.8 NORTE... 79.3 OESTE.
MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE  3 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS
SOSTENIDOS... 50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1000 MB.

UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE
HURACANES A LAS 2 PM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA
A LAS 5 PM EDT EDT.

PRONOSTICADOR AVILA

Cuidadin con ofelia, que segun los modelos podria rozar el las costas de florida para volver al atlantico, reforzarse, y tomar de nuevo rumbo a la peninsula de florida, siguiendo una trayectoria similar a la de Katrina.



Os imaginais un huracan de categoria 2 o 3 rumbo a Nueva Orleans??

La marina cambia su pronostico y Ophelia ya no cruzaria Florida

Habra que estar muy atentos ante la posible reentrada de ophelia como huracan en Florida en unos dias, y sobre todo el rumbo que tomara despues

Cita de: Bicaraco en Jueves 08 Septiembre 2005 00:12:35 AM
Habra que estar muy atentos ante la posible reentrada de ophelia como huracan en Florida en unos dias, y sobre todo el rumbo que tomara despues

Solo faltaba que cogiese la misma trayectoria de Katrina, esperemos que no

La trayectoria de Ophelia no está asegurada... aunque probablemente no llegue a entrar, sino que se quedaría estacionaria en frente de Florida

__________________________________

Impresionante, María ha vuelto a alcanzar la Cat1  Parece ser que se debe a la inmensa nubosidad que representa: gana con facilidad capacidad de absorver energía del mar:

Yo tambien creo que Ophelia no entrara en florida y se metera en la circulacion del Atlantico