En el ultimo parte del NHC (9) tan solo le dan un pico de 55kts.

Comentan que la cizalladura esta afectando al sistema, y que pese a que la SST es favorable, una masa de aire seco va a afectar al sistema en los próximos dias. Además los modelos no marcan un desarrollo profundo del sistema, en base a un desacople entre los niveles medio-bajo y los niveles altos del mismo.
En resumidas cuentas:

THE
OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND NO LONGER CALLS FOR BUD TO BECOME A HURRICANE

Vamos a ver de lo que es capaz por que a esta hora de la mañana su aspecto no es tan malo.

Cita de: Pepeavilenho en Miércoles 23 Mayo 2012 09:35:25 AM
En el ultimo parte del NHC (9) tan solo le dan un pico de 55kts.
Comentan que la cizalladura esta afectando al sistema, y que pese a que la SST es favorable, una masa de aire seco va a afectar al sistema en los próximos dias. Además los modelos no marcan un desarrollo profundo del sistema, en base a un desacople entre los niveles medio-bajo y los niveles altos del mismo.
En resumidas cuentas:

THE
OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND NO LONGER CALLS FOR BUD TO BECOME A HURRICANE

Vamos a ver de lo que es capaz por que a esta hora de la mañana su aspecto no es tan malo.

Posible "resbalón" de los pronosticadores. Tan solo hay que echarle un vistazo al Visible y ver las numerosas explosiones rodeando el sistema y su centro completamente tapado. Sube a 55 Kts-997 Mb. No me fio. Este va derechito a Puerto Vallarta.

Última imagen a 85 Ghz

Rectifican y le meten un pico de 75Kts en 24 horas derechito hacia la costa oeste mexicana.



02EBUD.55kts-997mb-132N-1074W

---

Excelente seguimientos compañeros, yo ando en OFF volviendo loca mi cabeza con modelos económicos abstractos y demás temas...

Ando muy liado como para poder colaborar en condiciones en el seguimiento  Muchas gracias a todos los que estáis colaborando.

Os dejo una bonita animación del canal visible 

Ganando enteros con el paso de las horas. BUD a puntito de caramelo con 60Kts-992Mb

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 240545
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BUD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
1100 PM PDT WED MAY 23 2012

...BUD BECOMES A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 107.7W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTO SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO LA FORTUNA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.7 WEST. BUD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF BUD IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO BY LATE FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  BUD IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN BY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.  HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25
MILES...35 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTHWEST MEXICO WITHIN THE WATCH BY LATE FRIDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY BUD WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO ON THURSDAY.  THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. 


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Como una moto

75kts-980mb


El NHC le da un pico de 75kts, cosa que ya ha conseguido.
¿RI?

Buufffff

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 240857
TCDEP2

HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
200 AM PDT THU MAY 24 2012

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT BUD HAS
CONTINUED TO QUICKLY ORGANIZE.  A WELL-DEFINED EYE WAS SEEN IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF MICROWAVE IMAGES BETWEEN 0300-0500 UTC...AND MORE
RECENTLY A RAGGED EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY.  OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM UW/CIMSS HAVE INCREASED
TO T4.6 AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.5
AND 4.0...RESPECTIVELY.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT.

BUD APPEARS TO HAVE ABOUT ANOTHER 12-18 HOURS IN FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN WHICH TO STRENGTHEN. AFTER THAT
TIME...COOLER WATERS...INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR...AND A DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING.  AS BUD
APPROACHES SOUTHWEST MEXICO...LAND INTERACTION IS LIKELY TO
HASTEN THE WEAKENING PROCESS.  THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST IS HIGHER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE HIGHER INITIAL
INTENSITY.  THEREAFTER...IT IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND IS CLOSEST TO THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.

BUD HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE EAST OF DUE NORTH OVERNIGHT...WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 010/6.  THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES.  AS BUD APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO...
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT.
HOWEVER...THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONGER
CYCLONE MOVING MORE QUICKLY NORTHWARD INTO MEXICO.  THE TYPICALLY
RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST BUD IS LIKELY TO DECOUPLE
WITH THE MID-LEVEL CENTER CONTINUING NORTHWARD...WHILE THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE COAST.  THE GUIDANCE IS IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER
THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED MODEL SPREAD INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY.  THE NHC
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

BASED ON THE NEW FORECAST...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO.  BECAUSE OF THE LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK
AND INTENSITY FORECASTS...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS REACHING THE COAST
OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0900Z 15.0N 107.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
12H  24/1800Z 15.9N 107.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
24H  25/0600Z 17.1N 106.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
36H  25/1800Z 18.2N 106.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
48H  26/0600Z 18.9N 105.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
72H  27/0600Z 19.0N 106.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
96H  28/0600Z 18.5N 107.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
120H  29/0600Z 18.0N 108.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Dvorak dice:

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 975.9mb/ 82.2kt

La estructura de su anillo convectivo es de un casi... Categoría 3




WoW con el primero de la temporada 

A cada salida.....y se siguen quedando cortos. Sube hasta los 90Kts-970Mb. Como no acierten con el Track, a los de Puerto Vallarta les van a doler la cabeza.