Huracán DARBY Categoría 3 (05E SW México)

Celia, Darby y 93L. 

sale el parte del NHC, que otorga a Darby 70 kt

DARBY CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A SMALL SYMMETRIC CDO WITH SOME BANDING
FEATURES OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND THERE ARE HINTS OF AN
EYE IN THE VISIBLE IMAGES.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 77 KT AND 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB
RESPECTIVELY.  ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST SINCE THE
HURRICANE SHOULD REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  LATER ON...STRONG
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE ANTICYCLONE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF DARBY WILL PROBABLY INDUCE SOME WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL REMAIN OVER RATHER WARM WATERS.  THE
OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST FOLLOWS THE LGEM GUIDANCE RATHER
CLOSELY.

THE FORWARD SPEED CONTINUES TO SLOW GRADUALLY AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS NOW ABOUT 285/7.  SINCE THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTH OF DARBY IS PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO WEAKEN...STEERING CURRENTS ARE LIKELY TO COLLAPSE IN A
FEW DAYS AND THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DECELERATE.   ALMOST ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE NOW REJECTS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT DARBY WILL INTERACT WITH THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
OVER THE CARIBBEAN.  THEREFORE IT IS PROBABLE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
SIMPLY MEANDER IN ROUGHLY THE SAME LOCATION NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST BRINGS
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO A HALT BY DAY 4.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      24/2100Z 12.9N  99.3W    70 KT
 12HR VT     25/0600Z 13.1N 100.4W    70 KT
 24HR VT     25/1800Z 13.4N 101.6W    75 KT
 36HR VT     26/0600Z 13.5N 102.5W    80 KT
 48HR VT     26/1800Z 13.5N 103.2W    80 KT
 72HR VT     27/1800Z 14.0N 104.0W    70 KT
 96HR VT     28/1800Z 14.5N 103.5W    65 KT
120HR VT     29/1800Z 14.5N 103.5W    55 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




 

Ya ha salido el nuevo parte, donde dicen que DARBY se fortalece un poco más y comienza a ralentizarse el movimiento de traslación hacia el NNE. En la discursión sobre el futuro del Sistema, ya no están tan seguros de que interaccione con la 93-L
Veremos.

Así es Sudoku, está 2 posts mas arriba...

ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST SINCE THE
HURRICANE SHOULD REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  LATER ON...STRONG
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE ANTICYCLONE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF DARBY WILL PROBABLY INDUCE SOME WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL REMAIN OVER RATHER WARM WATERS.  THE
OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST FOLLOWS THE LGEM GUIDANCE RATHER
CLOSELY.

Como haga como Celia lo llevan claro...
Aunque la SST y los niveles de THCP habrán descendido debido al paso de Celia, pero son suficientes.



 

DARBY sigue siendo un poco más fuerte, y alcanza los 80kt

INITIAL      25/0300Z 13.2N 100.0W    80 KT

El propio NHC comenta que poco más pòdrá fortalecerse

DARBY COULD
STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE BEFORE THE SHEAR HITS THE CYCLONE IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS AS DIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      25/0300Z 13.2N 100.0W    80 KT
 12HR VT     25/1200Z 13.5N 101.0W    80 KT
 24HR VT     26/0000Z 13.7N 102.0W    85 KT
 36HR VT     26/1200Z 13.8N 103.0W    85 KT
 48HR VT     27/0000Z 13.9N 103.5W    80 KT
 72HR VT     28/0000Z 14.0N 103.8W    70 KT
 96HR VT     29/0000Z 14.4N 103.5W    60 KT
120HR VT     30/0000Z 14.8N 103.3W    50 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Darby ya es Huracán categoria 2, con 90 kt.


000
WTPZ45 KNHC 250852
TCDEP5
HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052010
200 AM PDT FRI JUN 25 2010

DARBY HAS MAINTAINED A SMALL 10-N MI EYE FOR ABOUT THE PAST FIVE
HOURS BUT HAS DISPLAYED AN OBLONG CONVECTIVE PATTERN WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE BOTH T5.0...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 90 KT.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME FURTHER
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS
INDICATE THAT DARBY HAS MOVED INTO A FAVORABLE NORTH-SOUTH CORRIDOR
OF HIGHER SSTS AND SHOULD REMAIN OVER THOSE WATERS FOR ANOTHER 12
TO 24 HOURS.  IN ADDITION...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
DURING THAT PERIOD.  THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST BRINGS
DARBY TO MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 12 HOURS...WHICH IS ABOVE ALL
OF THE GUIDANCE EXPECT FOR SHIFOR.  THE SHIPS RI INDEX DOES
INDICATE A 1 IN 4 CHANCE OF A 30 KT INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...SO IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR DARBY TO
STRENGTHEN MORE THAN INDICATED HERE.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
AFTER 24 HOURS DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR AND LOWER SSTS...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO SHIPS AND LGEM.

THE TRACK FORECAST IS HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.  NEARLY ALL
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BY THE TIME IT
GETS TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS...AND THESE MODELS
STALL DARBY BY DAY 2 FOLLOWED BY A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION ON
DAYS 4 AND 5...MOST NOTABLY INDICATED BY THE ECMWF AND UKMET.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GENERAL PATTERN...BUT DOES NOT
INDICATE A POSITION AS FAR TO THE EAST ON DAY 5 AS THE MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCN...WHICH IS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE ECMWF AND UKMET
OUTLIERS.  ON ANOTHER NOTE...THE GFS SHOWS ALMOST NO DEVELOPMENT OF
THE CARIBBEAN LOW AND THEREFORE KEEPS DARBY ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE RATHER HELTER-SKELTER GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  ESSENTIALLY...THE
STRONGER THE CARIBBEAN LOW GETS WHILE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE
FARTHER TO THE EAST DARBY COULD BE LOCATED BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      25/0900Z 13.4N 100.7W    90 KT
 12HR VT     25/1800Z 13.5N 101.6W   100 KT
 24HR VT     26/0600Z 13.6N 102.6W    95 KT
 36HR VT     26/1800Z 13.4N 103.5W    90 KT
 48HR VT     27/0600Z 13.4N 103.7W    80 KT
 72HR VT     28/0600Z 13.6N 103.7W    70 KT
 96HR VT     29/0600Z 14.0N 103.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     30/0600Z 14.5N 102.0W    50 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP5+shtml/250852.shtml?



 Time             Lat   Lon   Wind(mph)  Pressure  Storm type
------------------------------------------------------------------------
03 GMT 06/23/10  11.0N 93.4W     35       1006     Tropical Depression
09 GMT 06/23/10  11.5N 94.0W     40       1005     Tropical Storm
15 GMT 06/23/10  11.8N 94.8W     50       1000     Tropical Storm
21 GMT 06/23/10  12.0N 96.1W     65        995     Tropical Storm
03 GMT 06/24/10  12.3N 97.0W     65        995     Tropical Storm
09 GMT 06/24/10  12.6N 98.0W     70        994     Tropical Storm
15 GMT 06/24/10  12.8N 98.7W     75        990     Category 1 Hurricane
21 GMT 06/24/10  12.9N 99.3W     80        980     Category 1 Hurricane
03 GMT 06/25/10  13.2N 100.0W     90        978     Category 1 Hurricane
09 GMT 06/25/10  13.4N 100.7W    105        967     Category 2 Hurricane

Como comentan más arriba, ya es un huracán categoría 2, habrá que cambiar el titulo 

Una imágen sobre cizalladura y aire seco...

una cosita.....las previsiones del NHC marcan otro Major....

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      25/0900Z 13.4N 100.7W    90 KT
 12HR VT     25/1800Z 13.5N 101.6W   100 KT
 24HR VT     26/0600Z 13.6N 102.6W    95 KT
 36HR VT     26/1800Z 13.4N 103.5W    90 KT
 48HR VT     27/0600Z 13.4N 103.7W    80 KT
 72HR VT     28/0600Z 13.6N 103.7W    70 KT
 96HR VT     29/0600Z 14.0N 103.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     30/0600Z 14.5N 102.0W    50 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG



No tiene mal aspecto.



 

Según ATCF actualizado rozando la categoría3:

95kt, 966mb.

- ATCF:

EP, 05, 2010062512,   , BEST,   0, 135N, 1009W,  95,  966, HU

Amanece en el EPAC.



 



 

La virgen con el EPAC... 

...DARBY BECOMES THE SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON...

INITIAL      25/1500Z 13.6N 101.2W   100 KT

Y contaba con que a corto plazo cogiera fuerza..., pero tanto reconozco que no. La no influencia de CELIA le ha beneficiado

Toma ya con Darby!!

DARBY IS A SMALL BUT INTENSE HURRICANE.  SATELLITE IMAGES AND
MICROWAVE DATA REVEAL AN EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY DEEP
CONVECTION. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 5.5 ON
THE DVORAK SCALE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD
TO 100 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A
LITTLE MORE BEFORE THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES UNFAVORABLE
IN A DAY OR TWO. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED.

DARBY HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES
AT 6 KNOTS.  HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS AND THE
STEERING CURRENTS COLLAPSE...THE HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN TO MEANDER
AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF DARBY...BUT MOST OF THEM WEAKEN THE
CYCLONE AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      25/1500Z 13.6N 101.2W   100 KT
 12HR VT     26/0000Z 13.9N 102.0W   105 KT
 24HR VT     26/1200Z 13.9N 103.2W   100 KT
 36HR VT     27/0000Z 13.5N 103.5W    90 KT
 48HR VT     27/1200Z 13.5N 104.0W    80 KT
 72HR VT     28/1200Z 13.8N 104.0W    70 KT
 96HR VT     29/1200Z 14.0N 103.3W    60 KT
120HR VT     30/1200Z 14.5N 102.5W    50 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


La virgen con el EPAC, 2 Majors en Junio...
Esta mañana leí en Storm2k que desde la década de los 70's no se daba un Major en Junio en esta cuenca...