Huracán DARBY Categoría 3 (05E SW México)

Una nueva imágen de Darby, arriba presión estimada según técnica Devorak



Va cogiendo fuelle 

Sigue mejorando.





A ver que dicen en el próximo parte, aunque desde el satélite mejora algo su aspecto.

...DARBY INTENSIFIES A LITTLE MORE...

105 KT-960 mb

Sale el parte del NHC, otorgado a Darby 105 kt

DARBY REMAINS A WELL-ORGANIZED HURRICANE WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWING A DISTINCT EYE AND AN IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN. DVORAK
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 1800 UTC WERE
T5.5...102 KT.  SINCE THAT TIME...THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED WITH DEEPER CONVECTION IN THE EYEWALL. THUS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS NUDGED UPWARD TO 105 KT.  EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST
BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT FUTURE STRENGTHENING.  THIS SHEAR WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AND CAUSE DARBY TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN.  MOST OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...
AND THE NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285/5.  A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER MEXICO IS
FORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE DARBY TO SLOW DOWN AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY.  THEREAFTER...THE MODELS HAVE WILDLY DIVERGENT
SOLUTIONS...WITH THE HWRF CONTINUING A WESTWARD MOTION OF DARBY AND
THE ECMWF/UKMET SHOWING AN EASTWARD MOTION.  MOST OF THIS
DISAGREEMENT IS CAUSED BY THE HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND WHETHER THE MUCH-SMALLER DARBY GETS
CAUGHT UP IN WESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF MEXICO.  IT IS BEST TO STAY
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...A LITTLE WEST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.

DARBY IS THE EARLIEST SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE FORMATION IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC SINCE RELIABLE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1971...ECLIPSING OF
THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF HURRICANE DANIEL ON JUNE 30 1978.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      25/2100Z 13.6N 101.5W   105 KT
 12HR VT     26/0600Z 13.7N 102.3W   105 KT
 24HR VT     26/1800Z 13.5N 103.3W   100 KT
 36HR VT     27/0600Z 13.4N 103.8W    90 KT
 48HR VT     27/1800Z 13.5N 104.2W    80 KT
 72HR VT     28/1800Z 14.0N 103.5W    65 KT
 96HR VT     29/1800Z 14.3N 102.7W    55 KT
120HR VT     30/1800Z 14.6N 102.0W    45 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


lo que comenataba antes, nuevo record en el EPAC

"...MINIATURE DARBY WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE..."

Efectivamente, es un huracán muy pequeño. Unos 60 kms de diámetro. Creo que el récord lo tiene Tracy que en la Nvaidad de 1974 arrasó Darwin (Australia) con 48 kms de diámetro y vientos de 240 km/h.

Darby pierde fuelle rápidamente y comienza su giro hacia NW y post a N-NE; previsiblemente no llegará a la costa.

Pos yo si le veo entrando por México, como Tormenta Tropical. Sigo pesando que ALEX actuará de atractor de DARBY

Pos yo si le veo entrando por México, como Tormenta Tropical. Sigo pesando que ALEX actuará de atractor de DARBY

Hombre sí está bastante cerca de la costa, pero las previsiones creo que apuntan a debilitarse rápidamente......Claro, no se si han tenido en cuenta la atracción que pueda hacer ALEX......

Acabo de bajarme esta imagen....Darby y Alex en un mismo plano satelital....

Preciosa imagen Kauri...

Pos yo si le veo entrando por México, como Tormenta Tropical. Sigo pesando que ALEX actuará de atractor de DARBY

¿Algún tipo de ''efecto fujiwara''?....¿Al menos algo parecido, no?
Bueno, amanece en el EPAC.


Posee 95 kt.

75 kt en el último parte.

Sistema afectado por la cizalladura, que sigue generando explosiones convectivas en torno a su centro, pero que no tardarán que remitir.
Además, seguirá siendo afectado por la cizalladura.

EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF DARBY BECAME
PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST....
APPARENTLY DUE TO INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR. SINCE THAT TIME...A
NEW BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER...BUT
THIS NEW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD BE TEMPORARY. DVORAK SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 85 KT FROM TAFB AND 95 KT FROM
SAB...BUT THEY ARE CONSTRAINED DUE TO RULES. THE CIMSS ADT AT 1745
UTC WAS 75 KT...WHICH SEEMS MUCH MORE REASONABLE SINCE SMALL...
COMPACT TROPICAL CYCLONES WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY THAN A NORMAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED
TO 75 KT. THE EASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...RESULTING IN FURTHER WEAKENING. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH
INDICATES A QUICKER WEAKENING TREND

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      26/2100Z 13.4N 102.8W    75 KT
 12HR VT     27/0600Z 13.4N 103.2W    65 KT
 24HR VT     27/1800Z 13.5N 103.6W    60 KT
 36HR VT     28/0600Z 13.8N 103.5W    55 KT
 48HR VT     28/1800Z 14.2N 103.1W    50 KT
 72HR VT     29/1800Z 14.5N 102.4W    40 KT
 96HR VT     30/1800Z 14.9N 101.9W    35 KT
120HR VT     01/1800Z 15.2N 101.7W    30 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA

 

DARBY al igual que CELIA se debilita a tormenta tropical

EP, 05, 2010062700,   , BEST,   0, 135N, 1029W,  60,  992, TS,  50, NEQ

DARBY baja a 50kt y ya interacciona con ALEX. EL NHC lo comenta:

UW-CIMSS SHEAR PRODUCT INDICATES 30 KT OF
EASTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE OUTFLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CYCLONE.  THIS STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE OUTFLOW PATTERN OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX

THE DECAYING CYCLONE
SHOULD MAKE A TURN NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE 24 HR PERIOD IN
RESPONSE TO THE RATHER LARGE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL
STORM ALEX CURRENTLY MOVING OVER YUCATAN

ALEX toma cartas en el asunto, y gana la partida

No me extraña que Alex gane la partida...es enorme....!!!

Darby, convertido en tormenta tropical tiene las horas contadas. El NHC lo localiza de aquí a 72 horas ya como post-tropical y sin llegar a la costa.