Huracán DARBY Categoría 3 (05E SW México)

Esto es un tren Tropical...  y la posible causa de que CELIA no carbure en el Este...

- ATCF

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep952010.invest
EP, 95, 2010062018,   , BEST,   0,  80N,  890W,  20, 1009, LO,  34

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Podéis abrir vosotros los Invest.  

Hay un nuevo invest en el EPAC

Otro más


Pues el europeo y el CM ven movimiento por la zona, no se yo...

pD:Parungo, un día te vas a adelantar al ATCF....

 

De momento le dan 20kt

Un par de imágenes :





Parece que tiene buenas condiciones a su alrededor.

Esto es un tren Tropical...  y la posible causa de que CELIA no carbure en el Este...

 

Las probabilidades aumentan a nivel naranja ( 40% )

 A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

Cierto Kike, estáis teniendo por allá con comienzo de temporada bastante animado eeh!

Europeo y CMC ven desarrollo de este INVEST a 4-6 días vista.
Mr.Barcos(SHIPS ) TT de 50 kt a +120h

De serlo sería Darby

De momento es un INVEST bastante pobre.



 

Si pepe  , animado el comienzo de temporada en el EPAC
Cambiando no mucho de tema el CNH ya ubica en nivel ROJO(60%) al invest 95E

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
GUATEMALA IS ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...
60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

Y en este caso, entiendo menos todavía

No decían que la temporada del EPAC iba a ser flojita... menudo tren ciclónico 

Actualiza el NHC.



1. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
GUATEMALA IS ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...
60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

Tienen muchas esperanzas en Florida con éste INVEST, vamos a ver cómo evoluciona

 

eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeepssssssssss
 

ahí esta la conveccion...



le dan ya un 70% de chance

1. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
GUATEMALA IS ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  THIS LOW CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10
MPH.

 

Pues va mejorando con las horas...



A ver si Mr. Darby está llamando a la puerta....Tiene pinta de que así puede ser.

 

Sigue mejorando le dan un 80% de posibilidades de desarrollo.



1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUATEMALA HAVE
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.  THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_epac_sub.shtml?area1#contents