Las imágenes de radar son las más veraces del mundo mundial. A ojo de observador, sirven tanto como las microondas, porque revelan el estado del eyewall a la perfección. Y así lo parece, un ERC en camino
A ver si el NHC lo comenta. Por lo pronto, debería perder algo de fuelle durante el ciclo
- Tanto una cosa como otra, comenta el NHC en su aviso nº 24, confirmando el ERC:000
WTNT42 KNHC 310902
TCDAT2
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT EARLIER REPORTED
700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 124 KT...AND ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS
OF 112 KT FROM THE SFMR. THE PLANE ALSO REPORTED A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 931 MB. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
AT 115 KT. SINCE THE PLANE LEFT...
A TRMM OVERPASS AND DATA FROM
THE SAN JUAN WSR-88D RADAR INDICATE THAT EARL HAS STARTED AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL
ARRIVE IN EARL NEAR 12Z TO DETERMINE IF IT HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY
FOR NOW.
- Respecto a su intensidad, todo depende de si completa el ERC, y las condiciones se mantienen (aire muy seco en niveles medios y altos, del Norte)...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL
FOLLOW THE GFDL/GFDN SCENARIO WITH A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING
DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR...BASED ON THE HURRICANE COMPLETING THE
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT AND THE DRY AIR NOT REACHING THE HURRICANE
CORE. THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES EARL OVER COLDER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INTO INCREASING SHEAR AFTER 72 HR...WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/0900Z 20.5N 66.7W 115 KT
12HR VT 31/1800Z 21.4N 68.2W 120 KT
24HR VT 01/0600Z 23.3N 70.3W 120 KT
36HR VT 01/1800Z 25.5N 72.3W 120 KT
48HR VT 02/0600Z 28.0N 73.8W 115 KT
72HR VT 03/0600Z 33.5N 74.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 04/0600Z 40.0N 69.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 05/0600Z 48.0N 60.5W 60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
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