00
WTNT62 KNHC 291232
TCUAT2
HURRICANE EARL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
830 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010
...EARL ATTAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH...

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT EARL HAS BECOME A HURRICANE WITH MAXIMIM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75
MPH...120 KM/HR.


SUMMARY OF 830 AM AST...1230 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 57.7W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES

$$

Ojito con Antillas...


NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY...AND THE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      29/1500Z 17.2N  58.4W    65 KT
12HR VT     30/0000Z 17.6N  60.4W    75 KT
24HR VT     30/1200Z 18.5N  62.7W    90 KT
36HR VT     31/0000Z 19.6N  64.5W   100 KT
48HR VT     31/1200Z 21.1N  66.3W   105 KT
72HR VT     01/1200Z 25.2N  69.8W   110 KT
96HR VT     02/1200Z 31.0N  72.0W   110 KT
120HR VT     03/1200Z 37.0N  71.5W   100 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

Buen aspecto.

Mapa de avisos



Aparte, bonito feature.



Y ADT nos dice 65 kts y 4.0

Publicado por: Pepeavilenho  Publicado en: Hoy a las 17:24:33  

Ojito con Antillas...  


Sí. Y cuidado también en las Carolinas, USA. Porque me da a mí  que no va a recurvar tanto al NW tal como ponen en la trayectoria y quizás una de las causas sea el "efecto DANIELLE", que ralentiza su marcha y su paso rápido a extratropical, lo que supone que "EARL" siga una trayectoria un poco más al WNW. Lo importante en la discursión: su intensificación a MAJOR el Martes, continuando como tal hasta el Viernes. Espero que por donde pase no haga mucha pupa, aunque me da que......
Saludos.

Radar MeteoFrance...


EARL, mostrando el Eye:

Empujoncito de EARL

.07LEARL.70kts-978mb-174N-589W

OMG ... EARL   

El ojo va a pasar por Anguila y las Islas Vírgenes, probablemente curve a partir de aquí. Sigo diciendo que no me fío ni un pelo de esas trayectórias y las costas E de los USA se van a llevar un buen susto.

Espectacular imagen que arroja el GOES...

A punto de tocar la HB oriental...

EARL, como una hormiguita 

THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL
MODELS SHOW EARL REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A DAY OR SO
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.  LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
OVER COOLER SSTS AND INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      29/2100Z 17.6N  59.5W    75 KT
12HR VT     30/0600Z 18.0N  61.3W    90 KT
24HR VT     30/1800Z 18.9N  63.3W   100 KT
36HR VT     31/0600Z 20.3N  65.1W   110 KT
48HR VT     31/1800Z 22.1N  66.9W   115 KT
72HR VT     01/1800Z 27.3N  70.2W   115 KT
96HR VT     02/1800Z 33.5N  71.5W   105 KT
120HR VT     03/1800Z 40.0N  68.0W    90 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

- GOES-15 0.63 µm visible images, 5 minutales.




- GOES-15 10.7 µm IR images

The coldest cloud top IR brightness temperatures were -86º C (darker violet color enhancement) at 16:15 UTC and again at 19:25 UTC.

EARL categoría 2

LOCATION...17.9N 61.1W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ENE OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 130 MI...215 KM E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES

EARL HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTERS RECENTLY FOUND AN SFMR-MEASURED SURFACE WIND
SPEED OF 83 KT JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS FROM THE AIRCRAFT WERE 93 KT...WHICH ADJUSTS TO 84 KT AT THE
SURFACE USING THE STANDARD REDUCTION FACTOR.  BASED ON THESE
OBSERVATIONS...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET TO 85 KT