Después de la excelente información de Parungo sobre el CRO iniciado, una pequeña cuestión quería establecer contigo: ¿te has dado cuenta de que los CROs comienzan cuando el ciclón tropical alcanza el pico de intensidad? Este fenómeno no ocurre cuando el ciclón se está intensificando, sino cuando, por las condiciones reinantes, ya no consigue reforzarse más.
He llegado a esta conclusión después de 5 años estudiando los huracanes en la cuenca del Atlántico Norte............
¿Esto será así o será una hipótesis incorrecta?
No es lugar de comentar el tema, pero simplemente apuntar que la contracción del ojo original y la organización de las bandas externas para generar la nueva pared, generalmente suponen una disminución en la intensidad, pero no definitivamente (una vez termine el ERC) una parada en su intensificación.
Dos lecturas:
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http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D8.html"Concentric eyewall cycles" (or "eyewall replacement cycle" ) naturally occur in intense tropical cyclones , i.e. major hurricanes (winds > 50 m/s, 100 kt, 115 mph) or Categories 3, 4, and 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. As tropical cyclones reach this threshold of intensity, they usually - but not always - have an eyewall and radius of maximum winds that contract to a very small size, around 10 to 25 km [5 to 15 mi]. At this point, some of the outer rainbands may organize into an outer ring of thunderstorms that slowly moves inward and robs the inner eyewall of its needed moisture and momentum. During this phase, the tropical cyclone is weakening (i.e. the maximum winds die off a bit and the central pressure goes up). Eventually the outer eyewall replaces the inner one completely and the storm can be the same intensity as it was previously or, in some cases, even stronger. A concentric eyewall cycle occurred in Hurricane Andrew (1992) before landfall near Miami: a strong intensity was reached, an outer eyewall formed, this contracted in concert with a pronounced weakening of the storm, and as the outer eyewall completely replaced the original one the hurricane reintensified. Another example is Hurricane Allen (1980) which went through repeated eyewall replacement cycles -- going from Category 5 to Category 3 status several times. To learn more about concentric eyewall cycles, read Willoughby et al. (1982) and Willoughby (1990a).
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http://www.meted.ucar.edu/tropical/textbook/ch10/tropcyclone_10_4_5_3.htmlThe concentric eyewall phenomenon or eyewall replacement cycle107 is often observed during periods of intensification or weakening of intense TCs (those with winds greater than 50 m s-1, 115 mph). In general, TC eyewalls contract as they strengthen to the intense TC threshold. After the existing eyewall has contracted to its minimum size for that threshold intensity, the TC enters a weakening phase. All other factors being equal, the TC weakens when an outer eyewall forms; some of the moisture and momentum is taken from the existing eyewall, which dissipates. The outer eyewall contracts gradually and the TC regains its original strength or becomes stronger. For example, major Hurricane Ivan weakened, from a category 5 to a category 4, as it approached Jamaica from the southeast, in part because of an eyewall replacement cycle. Two concentric eyewalls are evident in the radar image from Kingston, Jamaica (Fig. 10.60). The case of Hurricane Georges on 19 September 1998 illustrates the intensification phase of the eyewall replacement cycle. Fig. 10.61 shows TMI images of Hurricane Georges during a period of intensification when the concentric eyewalls were replaced by a single eyewall.
Un saludo.