A
1042 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS OF 35 KT...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE SET TO THAT VALUE. EASTERLY SHEAR IS PRESENT
OVER IGOR...BUT IS FORECAST TO LIGHTEN IN A DAY OR SO. ALL
RELIABLE MODELS SHOW INTENSIFICATION INTO A HURRICANE IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. BECAUSE OF THE SHEAR...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
WILL ONLY SHOW RELATIVELY SLOW STRENGTHENING...BELOW THE GUIDANCE
INITIALLY...BUT THE FORECAST ENDS UP CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AT DAY
5. IF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE PATTERN SEEN IN MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS VERIFY...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 08/1500Z 13.7N 23.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 09/0000Z 13.7N 24.6W 40 KT
24HR VT 09/1200Z 13.8N 26.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 10/0000Z 14.0N 29.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 10/1200Z 14.5N 31.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 11/1200Z 15.5N 36.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 12/1200Z 16.8N 41.2W 75 KT
120HR VT 13/1200Z 18.0N 46.0W 85 KT
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH
Jopetas
11L.IGOR.35kts.1005mb.13.7N.23.3W
¿Es record?
Tiene pinta...este es Debbie, fijaté en el 2º punto...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Debbie_1961_track.png