BOLETÍN"TROPICAL STORM ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST MON JAN 02 2006
...ZETA STRENGTHENED AGAINST ALL ODDS AND FORECASTS...
[...Dseda intensificandose en contra de todas las probabilidades y previsiones...]
{las del GFDL no }ZETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS STILL FORECAST.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB"
DISCUSIÓN"TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST MON JAN 02 2006
ZETA IS STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY. IT APPEARS THAT EVERY PULSE OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS THAT HAS TRIED TO APPROACH ZETA BECOMES DIVERTED AWAY FROM THE CYCLONE. CONSEQUENTLY...THE CYCLONE HAS NOT BECOME SHEARED. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTER AND THE OUTFLOW HAS EXPANDED WESTWARD. BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TODAY. IN ADDITION...
THE LATEST SSMI IMAGE SHOW A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION RESEMBLING AN EYEWALL...BUT NOT QUITE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS AND I COULD GO EVEN HIGHER IF THE LATEST QUIKSCAT IS USED.
A BRAVO FOR THE GFDL. IT HAS BEEN THE ONLY MODEL WHICH HAS KEPT ZETA ALIVE DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS AND IN FACT...THE LATEST RUN MAKES IT A 79-KNOT HURRICANE AS A SHARP UPPER-TROUGH APPROACHES THE HURRICANE"....
La física teórica -y experimental- del GFDL [http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/] se ha impuesto esta vez a la física aplicada del NHC [http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/]