Invest 98S ( Baja tropical NW australia )

Desconectado HurricaneMex'

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Invest 98S ( Baja tropical NW australia )
« en: Jueves 30 Diciembre 2010 03:02:46 am »
Posiblemente sea el prximo cicln de la temporada australiana, bureau ya nombra a la 98S como baja tropical y podra convertirse en cicln tropical el viernes por la noche o el sbado por la madrugada despus que salga de la costa  ::)

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone after it moves off the west
Kimberley coast late Friday or early Saturday


98SINVEST.20kts-1007mb-155S-1309E



Trayectoria



« ltima modificacin: Jueves 30 Diciembre 2010 03:10:32 am por HurricaneMex »

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Re: Invest 98S ( Baja tropical NW australia )
« Respuesta #1 en: Jueves 30 Diciembre 2010 14:05:45 pm »
Buen aspecto ha cojido a lo largo de la noche.



Veremos pues, que sale de este Invest ::)
Seguimiento Polos del Fro 2013-2014
Garganta del Villar (-17.6C) - Puerto El Pico (-11.4C)

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Re: Invest 98S ( Baja tropical NW australia )
« Respuesta #2 en: Jueves 30 Diciembre 2010 15:30:02 pm »
Pues se encamina hacia una zona donde la cizalladura le ser muy favorable y, por supuesto, la temperatura del agua del mar.....as pues, yo me sumo al pronstico de Hurricanemex y lo veo como cicln.




Barcelona ciudad. A la falda de Collserola, 120 m.s.n.m. .

Desconectado HurricaneMex'

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Re: Invest 98S ( Baja tropical NW australia )
« Respuesta #3 en: Jueves 30 Diciembre 2010 18:16:23 pm »
La marina aumenta la intensidad de este invest y ya bureau pronostica que para el dia sbado por la tarde se convierta en cicln tropical  8)

98SINVEST.25kts-1004mb-162S-1284E




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Re: Invest 98S ( Baja tropical NW australia )
« Respuesta #4 en: Viernes 31 Diciembre 2010 03:22:03 am »
El JTWC lanz la alerta de formacin tropical y comenta que este sistema tiene muy buenas condiciones para continuar desarrollndose como son temperaturas en el mar de hasta 30 y cizalladura vertical de 10-15 KT  :o

THE SYSTEM THROUGH ITS OVERLAND TRAJECTORY
AND NOW THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OFF-SHORE NEAR CYGNET BAY, WESTERN
AUSTRALIA, INTO VERY WARM (IN EXCESS OF 30 CELSIUS)


EXISTS IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT UNDER 10-15 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WINDSHEAR



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Re: Invest 98S ( Baja tropical NW australia )
« Respuesta #5 en: Viernes 31 Diciembre 2010 07:45:58 am »
El centro (que continua bien definidio), a punto de salir a aguas del ndico. No tardar mucho en adquirir nombre (VINCE  :D)


Oviedo Este (180m)

Oviedo Observatorio (336m)

Desconectado hardstyle

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Re: Invest 98S ( Baja tropical NW australia )
« Respuesta #6 en: Viernes 31 Diciembre 2010 19:39:41 pm »
Como me esta haciendo recordar este sistema a Laurence.....


25 knots  997 hectopascals

IDW20400
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TOP PRIORITY

WIND WARNING
For coastal waters from Kuri Bay to Northwest Cape
Issued at 11:54 pm WST on Friday 31 December 2010

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 11:00 pm WST a Tropical Low was located within 45 nautical miles of
latitude seventeen decimal five degrees South (17.5S)
longitude one hundred and twenty one decimal five degrees East (121.5E)
about 50 nautical miles west northwest of Broome
and 235 nautical miles northeast of Port Hedland
Recent movement : west southwest at 16 knots
Maximum winds   : 25 knots
Central pressure: 997 hectopascals

Forecast to be over water within 75 nautical miles of
latitude eighteen decimal seven degrees South (18.7S)
longitude one hundred and eighteen decimal three degrees East (118.3E)
about 230 nautical miles west of Broome
with maximum winds of 45 knots
at 11:00 am WST Saturday

Forecast to be within 105 nautical miles of
latitude nineteen decimal four degrees South (19.4S)
longitude one hundred and fourteen decimal nine degrees East (114.9E)
about 430 nautical miles west southwest of Broome
with maximum winds of 65 knots
at 11:00 pm WST Saturday

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING
Within 20 nautical miles of centre
Clockwise winds above 64 knots developing by 11:00 pm WST Saturday. Combined
seas and swell to 6m.

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING
Within 30 nautical miles of centre
Clockwise winds above 48 knots from 2:00 pm WST Saturday. Combined seas and
swell to 5m.

GALE WARNING
Within 80 nautical miles of centre in the southern semicircle
  and within 40 nautical miles of centre in the northern semicircle
Clockwise winds increasing to 35/45 knots by 8:00 am WST Saturday. Combined
seas and swell to 4m.

STRONG WIND WARNING
For coastal waters elsewhere from Kuri Bay to Northwest Cape
Winds between Kuri Bay and Broome northeast to northwest 20/30 knots,
increasing to 25/33 knots during Saturday morning. Winds between Broome and
Wallal increasing to east to northeast 20/30 knots during Saturday morning,
reaching 25/33 knots offshore for a period Saturday, tending north to northeast
20/30 knots Saturday afternoon. Winds between Wallal and Northwest Cape
increasing to southeast to northeast 25/33 knots during Saturday, easing to
northeast 20/30 knots in the east during the afternoon. Squalls to 45 knots in
thunderstorms. Seas rising to 2.5 metres and swell rising to 1.0 to 2.0 metres.

The next warning will be issued by 3:00 am WST Saturday 01 January.



Tropical Low
A tropical low over the Kimberley, south of Kuri Bay, is moving west southwest. The low is bringing increasingly heavy rainfall over the Kimberley with between 100 and 150mm possible over the next 24 hours. Overnight, into January 1st, the low is likely to move offshore, north of Broome (where heavy rainfall can be expected). Once over the ocean the low should develop rapidly and become a category one cyclone by mid morning on 1st January (to the north of Port Headland).

The current track keeps the intensifying cyclone parallel to the Pilbarra coast with potential for reaching a category 3 system by 2nd January north of Exmouth. Current forecast do not indicate that the cyclone will impact along the coast within the next 24 hours, although heavy seas and rainfall may affect coastal areas.

A warning is current between Exmouth and Wallal.








Over the last 3 hours the low has moved offshore from the west Kimberley coast and is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone during Saturday morning.

Coastal areas of the west Kimberley between Cape Leveque and Wallal including Broome may experience a period of STRONG, SQUALLY WINDS and HEAVY RAIN, easing during Saturday as the low moves away from the west Kimberley coast.

Gales may develop for a brief period along the Pilbara coast during Saturday as the system moves steadily towards the west southwest parallel to the Pilbara coast. By Sunday morning the system is likely to be north of Exmouth and continuing to move towards the west southwest away from the state.

Heavy rainfall of 50mm to 100mm with localised falls to 150mm are expected to ease in the west Kimberley during Saturday. Flash flooding and local stream rises are possible. The system is unlikely to cause flooding in the Pilbara due to its rapid movement.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in communities between Wallal and Fortescue Roadhouse, including Port Hedland, South Hedland, Karratha, Roebourne, Wickham, Dampier and all other coastal communities in the above named coastal area should be taking precautions.

Communities between Fortescue Roadhouse and Exmouth should listen for the next advice.


De momento se mantiene como tormenta tropical... en este momento su centro localizado  a 17.5 S - 1215 E.
Su pronostico pues para el da 1 ( +6  horas  , vamos maana ya sera categora 1 , pero por la pinta que esta cogiendo , entre completamente en el mar y con todo favorable para su rapido desarrollo , yo no descarto que maana pase de categora 1 a  2 ... o incluso intuyo que podria estar maana por la noche como categora 3 , siendo muy optimista , esta claro !!!
« ltima modificacin: Viernes 31 Diciembre 2010 20:55:45 pm por Hardstyle »

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Re: Invest 98S ( Baja tropical NW australia )
« Respuesta #7 en: Viernes 31 Diciembre 2010 23:13:03 pm »
Bureau a rebajado sus expectativas con la 98S , ahora solo le da una intensidad mxima de categora 2 escala australiana ( 60 KT )  :P

Intensification to category 2 intensity remains possible within 24 hours but
further development to category 3 is now less likely as the system should
encounter cooler waters during Sunday and Monday northwest of the state

Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 01/0600: 18.8S 116.7E:     075 [140]:  040  [075]:  991
+24: 01/1800: 19.4S 113.4E:     105 [195]:  050  [095]:  983
+36: 02/0600: 19.7S 111.0E:     135 [250]:  060  [110]:  973
+48: 02/1800: 19.9S 109.4E:     170 [315]:  055  [100]:  976
+60: 03/0600: 19.9S 108.3E:     215 [400]:  045  [085]:  984
+72: 03/1800: 20.1S 107.1E:     265 [490]:  040  [075]:  987




« ltima modificacin: Viernes 31 Diciembre 2010 23:15:47 pm por HurricaneMex »

Desconectado hardstyle

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Re: Invest 98S ( Baja tropical NW australia )
« Respuesta #8 en: Sbado 01 Enero 2011 00:26:26 am »
Registros de precipitacin por el momento :

Theyona - Distrito de Darwin-Daly : 126 mm
Delamere: 78 mm ( X cieto el da ms lluvioso desde febrero del 2008 ) ::)




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Re: Invest 98S ( Baja tropical NW australia )
« Respuesta #9 en: Sbado 01 Enero 2011 12:21:47 pm »

 Bureau ya no emitir ms partes sobre este sistemas por el momento, ya que segn ellos se aleja de las costas W.


IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 15
Issued at 2:54 pm WST on Saturday 1 January 2011

The Cyclone WARNING for coastal and island communities from Whim Creek to
Exmouth has been CANCELLED.

At 2:00 pm WST a tropical low was estimated to be
200 kilometres north northwest of Karratha and
280 kilometres north northeast of Onslow and
moving west southwest at 39 kilometres per hour.

The low is moving quickly towards the west southwest, parallel to the Pilbara
coast. Although it has intensified slightly during the day it has not reached
tropical cyclone intensity and has remained well offshore. By 8 pm WST tonight
the system is likely to be around 270 kilometres north of Exmouth and
continuiing to move quickly towards the west southwest away from the state.
Sustained gales are no longer likely on the Pilbara coast although people west
of Karratha should expect STRONG WINDS and occasional SQUALLS during the
afternoon and evening. Winds in exposed coastal locations will be near gale
force.

Flooding is not expected because there is relatively little rain associated
with this small and rapidly moving low.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises:
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in communities between Whim Creek and Fortescue
Roadhouse, including Karratha, Roebourne, Wickham, Dampier and all other
coastal communities in the above named coastal area are advised to proceed with
caution.



Details of Tropical Low at 2:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 19.2 degrees South 115.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 39 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 993 hectoPascals

No further advices will be issued for this system unless it moves back towards
the coast




Por el momento sigue vigente el aviso de cicln para las comunidades costeras  e insulares de Capricho Creek a Exmouth.
« ltima modificacin: Sbado 01 Enero 2011 12:36:41 pm por Hardstyle »

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Re: Invest 98S ( Baja tropical NW australia )
« Respuesta #10 en: Sbado 01 Enero 2011 12:29:47 pm »
IDW20400
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Sigue rebajando espectativas y ahora ya le da posibilidad de cat 1.





ltimo comunicado del Bureau.




TOP PRIORITY

WIND WARNING
For coastal waters from Wallal to Northwest Cape
Issued at 3:16 pm WST on Saturday 1 January 2011

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 2:00 pm WST a Tropical Low was located within 30 nautical miles of
latitude nineteen decimal two degrees South (19.2S)
longitude one hundred and fifteen decimal eight degrees East (115.8E)
about 110 nautical miles north northwest of Karratha
and 150 nautical miles north northeast of Onslow
Recent movement : west southwest at 21 knots
Maximum winds   : 30 knots reaching 35 knots at times within 70 nautical miles
in the southern semicircle.
Central pressure: 993 hectopascals

Forecast to be within 60 nautical miles of
latitude nineteen decimal eight degrees South (19.8S)
longitude one hundred and eleven decimal nine degrees East (111.9E)
about 285 nautical miles west of Karratha
with maximum winds of 40 knots
at 2:00 am WST Sunday

Forecast to be within 90 nautical miles of
latitude twenty decimal two degrees South (20.2S)
longitude one hundred and nine decimal zero degrees East (109.0E)
about 440 nautical miles west of Karratha
with maximum winds of 40 knots
at 2:00 pm WST Sunday

GALE WARNING
Within 70 nautical miles in the southern semicircle, and within 30 nautical
miles of centre in the northern semicircle from 8:00 pm WST Saturday.
Clockwise winds 30/40 knots. Combined seas and swell to 2.5m.

STRONG WIND WARNING
For coastal waters elsewhere from Wallal to Northwest Cape
East of low northeast to northerly winds 20/30 knots. West of low northeast to
southeast winds 20/30 knots. Squalls to 50 knots in thunderstorms. Seas 1.5 to
2.0 metres and swell rising to 1.0 to 1.5 metres.

The next warning will be issued by 9:00 pm WST Saturday 01 January.

Ostres Hardstyle hemos ido a la par......

Barcelona ciudad. A la falda de Collserola, 120 m.s.n.m. .

Desconectado HurricaneMex'

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Re: Invest 98S ( Baja tropical NW australia )
« Respuesta #11 en: Sbado 01 Enero 2011 16:13:14 pm »
Todava puede alcanzar la categora de cicln tropical antes de que entre a aguas ms frescas es lo que comenta bureau.  :P

The system has a narrow window for development and may struggle to reach TC
intensity before reaching cooler waters by late Sunday
.



Saludos  ;D