Como me esta haciendo recordar este sistema a Laurence.....
25 knots 997 hectopascalsIDW20400Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
TOP PRIORITY
WIND WARNING
For coastal waters from Kuri Bay to Northwest Cape
Issued at 11:54 pm WST on Friday 31 December 2010
Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
SITUATION
At 11:00 pm WST a Tropical Low was located within 45 nautical miles of
latitude seventeen decimal five degrees South (17.5S)
longitude one hundred and twenty one decimal five degrees East (121.5E)
about 50 nautical miles west northwest of Broome
and 235 nautical miles northeast of Port Hedland
Recent movement : west southwest at 16 knots
Maximum winds : 25 knots
Central pressure: 997 hectopascals
Forecast to be over water within 75 nautical miles of
latitude eighteen decimal seven degrees South (18.7S)
longitude one hundred and eighteen decimal three degrees East (118.3E)
about 230 nautical miles west of Broome
with maximum winds of 45 knots
at 11:00 am WST Saturday
Forecast to be within 105 nautical miles of
latitude nineteen decimal four degrees South (19.4S)
longitude one hundred and fourteen decimal nine degrees East (114.9E)
about 430 nautical miles west southwest of Broome
with maximum winds of 65 knots
at 11:00 pm WST Saturday
HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING
Within 20 nautical miles of centre
Clockwise winds above 64 knots developing by 11:00 pm WST Saturday. Combined
seas and swell to 6m.
STORM FORCE WIND WARNING
Within 30 nautical miles of centre
Clockwise winds above 48 knots from 2:00 pm WST Saturday. Combined seas and
swell to 5m.
GALE WARNING
Within 80 nautical miles of centre in the southern semicircle
and within 40 nautical miles of centre in the northern semicircle
Clockwise winds increasing to 35/45 knots by 8:00 am WST Saturday. Combined
seas and swell to 4m.
STRONG WIND WARNING
For coastal waters elsewhere from Kuri Bay to Northwest Cape
Winds between Kuri Bay and Broome northeast to northwest 20/30 knots,
increasing to 25/33 knots during Saturday morning. Winds between Broome and
Wallal increasing to east to northeast 20/30 knots during Saturday morning,
reaching 25/33 knots offshore for a period Saturday, tending north to northeast
20/30 knots Saturday afternoon. Winds between Wallal and Northwest Cape
increasing to southeast to northeast 25/33 knots during Saturday, easing to
northeast 20/30 knots in the east during the afternoon. Squalls to 45 knots in
thunderstorms. Seas rising to 2.5 metres and swell rising to 1.0 to 2.0 metres.
The next warning will be issued by 3:00 am WST Saturday 01 January.
Tropical Low
A tropical low over the Kimberley, south of Kuri Bay, is moving west southwest. The low is bringing increasingly heavy rainfall over the Kimberley with between 100 and 150mm possible over the next 24 hours. Overnight, into January 1st, the low is likely to move offshore, north of Broome (where heavy rainfall can be expected). Once over the ocean the low should develop rapidly and become a category one cyclone by mid morning on 1st January (to the north of Port Headland).
The current track keeps the intensifying cyclone parallel to the Pilbarra coast with potential for reaching a category 3 system by 2nd January north of Exmouth. Current forecast do not indicate that the cyclone will impact along the coast within the next 24 hours, although heavy seas and rainfall may affect coastal areas.
A warning is current between Exmouth and Wallal.
Over the last 3 hours the low has moved offshore from the west Kimberley coast and is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone during Saturday morning.
Coastal areas of the west Kimberley between Cape Leveque and Wallal including Broome may experience a period of STRONG, SQUALLY WINDS and HEAVY RAIN, easing during Saturday as the low moves away from the west Kimberley coast.
Gales may develop for a brief period along the Pilbara coast during Saturday as the system moves steadily towards the west southwest parallel to the Pilbara coast. By Sunday morning the system is likely to be north of Exmouth and continuing to move towards the west southwest away from the state.
Heavy rainfall of 50mm to 100mm with localised falls to 150mm are expected to ease in the west Kimberley during Saturday. Flash flooding and local stream rises are possible. The system is unlikely to cause flooding in the Pilbara due to its rapid movement.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in communities between Wallal and Fortescue Roadhouse, including Port Hedland, South Hedland, Karratha, Roebourne, Wickham, Dampier and all other coastal communities in the above named coastal area should be taking precautions.
Communities between Fortescue Roadhouse and Exmouth should listen for the next advice.
De momento se mantiene como tormenta tropical... en este momento su centro localizado a 17.5 S - 1215 E.
Su pronostico pues para el día 1 ( +6 horas , vamos mañana ya sera categoría 1 , pero por la pinta que esta cogiendo , entre completamente en el mar y con todo favorable para su rapido desarrollo , yo no descarto que mañana pase de categoría 1 a 2 ... o incluso intuyo que podria estar mañana por la noche como categoría 3 , siendo muy optimista , esta claro !!!
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