Manchas solares/Sunspots: Seguimiento del Ciclo Solar (Links en primer post)

SSN: 51 (ayer)   

Durante el fin de semana estaremos bajo tormenta geomagnética leve G1, originada por la corriente solar del CH (coronal hole), que se suma a las pequeñas erupciones CME y eyecciones de filamentos.

Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Aug 09: None (Below G1) Aug 10: G1 (Minor) Aug 11: G1 (Minor)
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and   Maine.



http://www.solarham.net/

El doble pico del máximo ya se intuye, ya sabéis lo que eso significa, a partir de ahora irá todo hacia abajo.

hasta que revierta el campo sur faltan unos cuantos meses (viendo como esta ahora y comparando con otros ciclos), lo que si es cierto es que lo que se puede considerar como alcanzada es la reversión total (punto en el que se cruzan los dos campos, lo que sería el punto medio del ciclo) que se habría producido en abril.

http://www.solen.info/solar/polarfields/polar.html

SSN: 104

SSN: 134

Atención a la ultima actualización de ayer dia 19, del valor magnetico del campo polar sur que ya es de SF8.Dejo las capturas de pantalla del 25 de Julio, 3 de Agosto y ayer 19, donde podemos observar como en los ultimos 26 dias el valor del 6/7/2013 lo han ido modificando/actualizando de SF12 a SF9.De seguir con la actual progresión, veremos que valor alcanzamos en las 3 proximas actualizaciones de 6/16/26 de Agosto, porque sigo pensando que en Agosto podriamos tener o ya el valor de 0 o inversión magnetica o un valor muy cercano a el, por ejemplo SF4.El tema se pone realmente interesante y mas viendo el repunte que está teniendo a dia de hoy la superficie solar, con un aumento de las manchas solares en sus 2 hemisferios y que podria estar anunciandonos la inminente inversion magnetica del sur y la definitiva, dando por finalizado el Máximo Solar de este debil Ciclo Solar 24, dejemos que sigan dando las actualizaciones hasta el 26 de Agosto, para ver como evoluciona el valor del campo solar Sur 

Edito, no me deja subir la captura del 25 de Julio 

En el ciclo solar 22 tardó 30 dias en bajar del valor SF8 al SF2:

1991:02:22_21h:07m:13s    47N   39S    4Avg   20nhz filt:   47Nf    8Sf   19Avgf
1991:03:04_21h:07m:13s    48N   42S    3Avg   20nhz filt:   48Nf    6Sf   21Avgf
1991:03:14_21h:07m:13s    52N   32S   10Avg   20nhz filt:   49Nf    4Sf   22Avgf
1991:03:24_21h:07m:13s    35N   15S   10Avg   20nhz filt:   50Nf    2Sf   24Avgf
1991:04:03_21h:07m:13s    33N    8S   13Avg   20nhz filt:   51Nf   -1Sf   26Avgf

http://wso.stanford.edu/Polar.html#latest

SSN: 115 (ayer)

Ayer:

SUNDIVING COMET AND FULL-HALO CME:

A small comet plunged into the sun on August 20th. Just before it arrived, the sun expelled a magnificent full-halo CME. Click to view a movie from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO):





In the final frames of the movie, the comet can be seen furiously vaporizing. Indeed, those were the comet's final frames. It did not emerge again from its flyby of the hot sun. "With a diameter of perhaps a few tens of meters, this comet was clearly far too small to survive the intense bombardment of solar radiation," comments Karl Battams of the Naval Research Lab, who studies sungrazing comets.

The CME (coronal mass ejection) came from an explosion on the farside of the sun. Although the CME and the comet appear to intersect, there was probably no interaction between the two. The comet is in the foreground and the farside CME is behind it.

Occasionally, readers ask if sundiving comets can trigger solar explosions. There's no known mechanism for comets to spark solar flares. Comets are thought to be too small and fragile to destabilize the sun's magnetic field. Plus, this comet was still millions of kilometers from the sun when the explosion unfolded.

The comet, R.I.P., was a member of the Kreutz family. Kreutz sungrazers are fragments from the breakup of a single giant comet many centuries ago. They get their name from 19th century German astronomer Heinrich Kreutz, who studied them in detail. Several Kreutz fragments pass by the sun and disintegrate every day. Most, measuring less than a few meters across, are too small to see, but occasionally a bigger fragment like this one attracts attention.

http://spaceweather.com/

 

Esto va viento en popa y sigue acelerandose el descenso del valor magnetico del campo polar sud, en la actualización de hoy dia 21, ha vuelto a descender el valor de sf8 a sf6 y con fecha del 5/8/2013.Sigo pensando que la NASA ha sobrestimado el calculo para la inversión y en lugar de producirse dentro de 3/4 meses, creo que de Agosto no pasa que ya tenga el valor negativo.El actual pico de manchas solares, podria ser indicativo de que ya se esté invirtiendo la polaridad de positiva a negativa

Ayer:

Citar

SUNDIVING COMET AND FULL-HALO CME:

A small comet plunged into the sun on August 20th. Just before it arrived, the sun expelled a magnificent full-halo CME. Click to view a movie from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO):





In the final frames of the movie, the comet can be seen furiously vaporizing. Indeed, those were the comet's final frames. It did not emerge again from its flyby of the hot sun. "With a diameter of perhaps a few tens of meters, this comet was clearly far too small to survive the intense bombardment of solar radiation," comments Karl Battams of the Naval Research Lab, who studies sungrazing comets.

The CME (coronal mass ejection) came from an explosion on the farside of the sun. Although the CME and the comet appear to intersect, there was probably no interaction between the two. The comet is in the foreground and the farside CME is behind it.

Occasionally, readers ask if sundiving comets can trigger solar explosions. There's no known mechanism for comets to spark solar flares. Comets are thought to be too small and fragile to destabilize the sun's magnetic field. Plus, this comet was still millions of kilometers from the sun when the explosion unfolded.

The comet, R.I.P., was a member of the Kreutz family. Kreutz sungrazers are fragments from the breakup of a single giant comet many centuries ago. They get their name from 19th century German astronomer Heinrich Kreutz, who studied them in detail. Several Kreutz fragments pass by the sun and disintegrate every day. Most, measuring less than a few meters across, are too small to see, but occasionally a bigger fragment like this one attracts attention.

http://spaceweather.com/

 

Para cuando está previsto que nos afecte?

Me edito: he encontrado esto

El 20 de agosto de 2013 a las 4:24 am EDT (-4UTC), el sol entró en erupción con una eyección de masa coronal - CME- geoefectiva, un fenómeno solar que puede enviar miles de millones de toneladas de partículas hacia el espacio y en determinados casos puede llegar a la Tierra de uno a tres días más tarde

Esta CME  en particular estará dando un golpe de refilón a la magnetósfera terrestre el día 23 de agosto de 2013. Al ser una CME menor y de impacto parcial la actividad geomagnética que podemos esperar no será de importancia.

http://www.redconcienciaargentina.com/2013/08/reporte-solar-martes-20-de-agosto-de.html

Saludos