Granizo con cualquier célula y probabilidad de SP en el centro peninsular, según
Estofex, nivel 1:
DISCUSSION
... Portugal and Spain ...
Brisk southwesterly flow affects all of the Iberian Peninsula all day long. However, as aforementioned vorticity lobe approaches from the west, wind field at mid-levels ramps up significantly during the early afternoon hours onwards with shear magnitude increasing by roughly 10 m/s at lowest 3 and 6 km to 20 and 25 m/s respectively. According to a deep WAA pattern, veering is expected within the mid tropospheric layer and widespread 200 m^2/s^2 SRH-3 occur, increasing betimes over E-Spain. Also, a 35-40 m/s diffluent high-level streamline pattern (~300 hPa) covers the forecast area, also persisting as sharpening trough approaches from the west.
BL quality is still the main concern with yesterday's soundings revealing high T-Td depressions and inverted-V typed profiles. However, persistent influx of better moisture from the Mediterranean assist in further BL recovery and better LL moisture to work with. The pattern is also not supportive for widespread, thick cirrus, so expect again another round of good diabatic heating and orographically bound initiation. CIN remains weak with rapid mix out of any nocturnal stabilization, so scattered thunderstorms evolve around noon, increasing during the afternoon hours in coverage and strength. Large hail is well possible with any multicell/supercell thunderstorm. During the later afternoon, an isolated significant hail risk evolves over central/south-central Spain with any discrete supercell, given favorable parameter overlap ( ~800 J/kg MLCAPE, 30 m/s DLS and increasing SRH). Strong to severe wind gusts are also forecast as BL remains deeply mixed and 0-3 km shear increases betimes.
During the night, thunderstorms move slowly towards the east, as upper trough approaches. However, BL stabilization results in rapidly decreasing CAPE, although steep lapse rates may offset that effect with modest MUCAPE present all night long. Anyhow, expect severe risk to diminish rapidly until 00Z.
An upgrade to a level 2 may become necessary, if CAPE/shear overlap remains in place during upcoming model outputs....mainly over central/south-central Spain. The main risk would be signficant hail.