Previsiones estacionales y parámetros globales (ENSO, SST, SAL...)

Pronostico para la Temporada Atlántica



Ahora en comparación con la Temporada del EPAC.



Cabe decir que he ojeado los distintos pronosticos de algunos organismos, tanto oficiales como no-oficiales, y todos coinciden en preveer una temporada atlántica por debajo de la media, tanto en número de sistemas nombrados, como en su intensidad, y en el correspondiente indice ACE acumulado.

También cabe decir que el pronostico del ENSO es a queese Niño del que hablabamos anteriormente, se vaya fortaleciendo a medio y largo plazo.

En resumen; nos lo vamos a pasar "pipa" en el Pacífico Este, y en el Atlántico Norte pues me temo que a verlas, venir, con muchos sistemas afectados por la cizalladura, y ambiente inestable, pero puede que alguno "aproveche alguna ventana de buen tiempo" y logre dar la sorpresa. Ahi están las previsiones 

Saludos, y espero que os resulte ameno e instructivo el seguimiento, desde aquí os animo a todos a participar y postear, que no os de miedo ni vergüenza

Nos vemos.

A ver si desempolvo algo esto 

Ya dentro de dos meses comenzará la temporada ciclónica de 2018 en el Atlántico Norte y a partir de estas fechas los diferentes organismos empiezan a emitir sus pronósticos para la temporada, de hecho mañana debe salir el pronóstico del CSU, donde trabajaba Willian Gray el padre de este tipo de pronóstico. Y para ir mirando algo aquí les dejo el pronóstico de ellos el el pasado Diciembre

CSU Diciembre 2017

Y como anda la cosa por el pacífico ecuatorial.

Informe semanal sobre el ENSO del CPC (noaa)

De momento estamos en niña débil al parecer camino a condiciones neutras, pero no parece que vaya a desarrollarse un "Niño" para la temporada, así que es probable que la temporada sea activa (esperemos que no tan desastrosa como la anterior  )

Por cierto por estos días se debe reunir el comité de Huracanes de la OMM, donde decidirán oficialmente retirar nombres como HARVEY, IRMA y MARIA. 

Saludos

Pues ya está, hace apena un rato el Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera acaba de publicar su pronóstico de Abril para la temporada de Huracanes del Atlántico norte.

CSU Ap-2018 Forescast

De momento apuestan por una temporada ligeramente sobre la media, con 14 organismos nombrados, 7 huracanes y 3 huracanes de gran intensidad (majors).



En el link está el el pdf con todas las explicaciones, la metodología implementada y todos los detalles.

El elemento fundamental está dado por la casi seguridad de que no tendremos NIÑO este año, estamos actualmente en
NIÑA débil y lo mas probable es que pasemos a ENSO neutro entre Mayo y Junio, lo otro que tendremos es que el atlántico se mantiene sobre lo cálido.





Saludos

Finalmente el NHC lanza su pronóstico para la temporada de Huracanes del Atlántico 2018. Bastante "amplio" por cierto.



Como ven tanto las probabilidades, como los rangos de sistemas para categoría son bastante "extendidos".

Los detalles acá.

Saludos

La NOAA actualiza su predicción de la temporada de huracanes del Atlántico Norte y lo hace bien a la baja,



Las causas las que ya hemos comentado, niño en ciernes por el Pacífico y el Atlántico con la MDR ligeramente mas fría que la media.

Mas info aquí.

Saludos

La NOAA actualiza su pronóstico de la temporada actual de huracanes en el Atlántico Norte y lo hacen bien al alza.

¿La Razón? Pues que el niño es historia, con la temperatura del Pacífico Ecuatorial a la baja pues los efectos de contención  sobre la actividad ciclónica del Atlántico norte del NIÑO debe ir disminuyendo (básicamente disminuye la cizalladura sobre la cuenca lo que permite que las tormentas se organicen mejor).



A pesar de que solo se han registrado dos organismos nombrados en   lo que va de temporada esperan que estos números se incremente de forma notable en las próximas semanas.



Saludos

Hoy los discípulos del otrora famoso Dr. W. Gray de la Universidad de Colorado sacan su pronóstico de Abril para la temporada de Huracanes de 2020 en el Atlántico Norte. Que como ya mas de uno suponía tiende a la alza, MDR con SST ligeramente sobre la media y los modelos a largo plazo van de ENSO neutro a posible "NIÑA" débil para el punto álgido de la temporada. En resumen plantean:

Anticipamos que la temporada de huracanes de la cuenca del Atlántico en 2020 tendrá una actividad superior a la norma. Las condiciones actuales de ENSO neutrales cálidas parecen pasar a condiciones de ENSO neutrales frías o potencialmente incluso condiciones débiles de La Niña para este verano / otoño. Las temperaturas de la superficie del mar promediadas en el Atlántico tropical ligeramente sobre la media. Nuestro índice de oscilación atlántica multidecadal está por debajo de su promedio a largo plazo; Sin embargo, la mayor parte del Atlántico tropical está más cálida que lo normal. Anticipamos una probabilidad superior a la media de que huracanes intensos toquen tierra a lo largo de la costa continental de los Estados Unidos y en el Caribe. Como es el caso de todas las temporadas de huracanes, se recuerda a los residentes costeros que solo se necesita un huracán que toque tierra para que sea una temporada activa para ellos. Se deben preparar lo mismo para cada temporada, independientemente de lo activa o no que se pronostique la temporada.

https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/sites/111/2020/04/2020-04.pdf

Saludos

La noaa ya ha dado la previsión para la actual temporada ciclónica.

ATLANTICO

https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/busy-atlantic-hurricane-season-predicted-for-2020

Busy Atlantic hurricane season predicted for 2020
Multiple climate factors indicate above-normal activity is most likely

May 21, 2020 An above-normal 2020 Atlantic hurricane season is expected, according to forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. The outlook predicts a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season and only a 10% chance of a below-normal season. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30.
A view from the flight deck of a NOAA WP-3D aircraft as the team flies into Hurricane Harvey on August 24, 2017.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a likely range of 13 to 19 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence. An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.
A summary infographic showing hurricane season probability and numbers of named storms predicted from NOAA's 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook.
A summary infographic showing hurricane season probability and numbers of named storms predicted from NOAA's 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook.
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“As Americans focus their attention on a safe and healthy reopening of our country, it remains critically important that we also remember to make the necessary preparations for the upcoming hurricane season,” said Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross. “Just as in years past, NOAA experts will stay ahead of developing hurricanes and tropical storms and provide the forecasts and warnings we depend on to stay safe.”

The combination of several climate factors is driving the strong likelihood for above-normal activity in the Atlantic this year. El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are expected to either remain neutral or to trend toward La Nina, meaning there will not be an El Nino present to suppress hurricane activity. Also, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, coupled with reduced vertical wind shear, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds, and an enhanced west African monsoon all increase the likelihood for an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season. Similar conditions have been producing more active seasons since the current high-activity era began in 1995.

“NOAA’s analysis of current and seasonal atmospheric conditions reveals a recipe for an active Atlantic hurricane season this year,” said Neil Jacobs, Ph.D., acting NOAA administrator. “Our skilled forecasters, coupled with upgrades to our computer models and observing technologies, will provide accurate and timely forecasts to protect life and property.”

This year, as during any hurricane season, the men and women of NOAA remain ready to provide the life-saving forecasts and warnings that the public rely on. And as storms show signs of developing, NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft will be prepared to collect valuable data for our forecasters and computer models.

In addition to this high level of science and service, NOAA is also launching new upgrades to products and tools that will further improve critical services during the hurricane season.

NOAA will upgrade the hurricane-specific Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast system (HWRF) and the Hurricanes in a Multi-scale Ocean coupled Non-hydrostatic model (HMON) models this summer. HWRF will incorporate new data from satellites and radar from NOAA’s coastal Doppler data network to help produce better forecasts of hurricane track and intensity during the critical watch and warning time frame. HMON will undergo enhancements to include higher resolution, improved physics, and coupling with ocean models.

As the hurricane season gets underway, NOAA will begin feeding data from the COSMIC-2 satellites into weather models to help track hurricane intensity and boost forecast accuracy. COSMIC-2 provides data about air temperature, pressure and humidity in the tropical regions of Earth — precisely where hurricane and tropical storm systems form.

Also during the 2020 hurricane season, NOAA and the U.S. Navy will deploy a fleet of autonomous diving hurricane gliders to observe conditions in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea in areas where hurricanes have historically traveled and intensified.
A summary graphic showing an alphabetical list of the 2020 Atlantic tropical cyclone names as selected by the World Meteorological Organization. The first named storm of the season, Arthur, occurred in earlier in May before the NOAA's outlook was announced. The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season is June 1 and runs through November 30.
A summary graphic showing an alphabetical list of the 2020 Atlantic tropical cyclone names as selected by the World Meteorological Organization. The first named storm of the season, Arthur, occurred in earlier in May before the NOAA's outlook was announced. The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season is June 1 and runs through November 30.
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As with every hurricane season, the need to be prepared is critically important this year.

“Social distancing and other CDC guidance to keep you safe from COVID-19 may impact the disaster preparedness plan you had in place, including what is in your go-kit, evacuation routes, shelters and more. With tornado season at its peak, hurricane season around the corner, and flooding, earthquakes and wildfires a risk year-round, it is time to revise and adjust your emergency plan now,” said Carlos Castillo, acting deputy administrator for resilience at FEMA. “Natural disasters won’t wait, so I encourage you to keep COVID-19 in mind when revising or making your plan for you and your loved ones, and don’t forget your pets. An easy way to start is to download the FEMA app today.”

In addition to the Atlantic hurricane season outlook, NOAA also issued seasonal hurricane outlooks for the eastern and central Pacific basins.

NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. The Climate Prediction Center will update the 2020 Atlantic seasonal outlook in August prior to the historical peak of the season.

Hurricane preparedness is critically important for the 2020 hurricane season, just as it is every year. Keep in mind, you may need to adjust any preparedness actions based on the latest health and safety guidelines from the CDC and your local officials. Visit the National Hurricane Center’s website at hurricanes.gov throughout the season to stay current on any watches and warnings.

Media contact

Lauren Gaches, (202) 740-8314

PACIFICO

https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/near-or-below-normal-2020-hurricane-season-predicted-for-central-pacific

Near- or below-normal 2020 hurricane season predicted for Central Pacific

May 20, 2020
A July 28, 2019, satellite image (labeled) of Tropical Storms Erick (left) and Flossie (right) strengthening in the Pacific.

There is a 75% chance of near- or below-normal tropical cyclone activity during the Central Pacific hurricane season this year, according to NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center and NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, divisions of the National Weather Service.

The outlook also indicates a 25% chance of an above-normal season.

For the season as a whole, 2 to 6 tropical cyclones are predicted for the Central Pacific hurricane region. This number includes tropical depressions, named storms and hurricanes. A near-normal season has 4 or 5 tropical cyclones.

“This year we will likely see less activity in the Central Pacific region compared to more active seasons,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., NOAA’s lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center. “Less activity is predicted since ocean temperatures are likely to be near-average in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean where hurricanes form, and because El Nino is not present to increase the activity.”

This outlook is a general guide to the overall seasonal tropical cyclone activity in the Central Pacific basin, and does not predict whether, or how many, of these systems will affect Hawaii. The hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through November 30.

“Regardless of the number of tropical cyclones predicted, this outlook serves as a reminder to everyone in the State of Hawaii to prepare now,” said Chris Brenchley, director of NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center. “Learn about hurricane hazards and where to find our forecasts, then make a plan so that you and your family stay healthy and safe.”

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center continuously monitors weather conditions, employing a network of satellites, land- and ocean-based sensors, and aircraft reconnaissance missions operated by NOAA and its partners. This array of data supplies the information for complex computer modeling and human expertise, which are the basis for the center’s storm track and intensity forecasts. These forecasts are made available to the public and media, and help provide critical decision support services to emergency managers at the federal, state and county levels.

New this year, NOAA’s Aviation Weather Center is expanding its Graphical Forecasts for Aviation (GFA) Tool in late June over Hawaii and portions of the Pacific Ocean. This tool will provide pilots with observations and forecasts of weather phenomena, which are critical for aviation safety.   

Check the Central Pacific Hurricane Center’s website throughout the season to stay on top of any watches and warnings, and visit FEMA’s Ready.gov for additional hurricane preparedness tips.

Media contact

John Bravender, (808) 973-5275

Pues mientras la temporada sigue en extremo tranquila las aguas alrededor de las Bahamas, La Florida y Cuba están llegando a temperaturas posiblemente record.

Saludos

Enviado desde mi HUAWEI CUN-L21 mediante Tapatalk

Yo sigo asustado con lo que veo, las Bahamas son el nuevo Golfo Pérsico y el estrecho de la Florida y el Noroeste del Caribe pegado a Cuba le secundan. Hoy las aguas junto a la isla Andros marcan 32ºC algo realmente increíble, las anomalías en la zona van de 1 a 3ºC en la época de máximo calor lo cual no recuerdo algo similar. Esto en buena medida se debe a las muy altas temperaturas en la zona desde Abril y a la marcada influencia anticiclónica sobre el área en los últimos 20 días.

No quiero se pájaro de mal agüero pero ya el año pasado tuvimos a DORIAN en esta zona. Un organismo en la zona tendrá "combustible" mas que de sobra para convertirse en un verdadero monstruo.


Saludos

Si a mi post anterior le sumamos esto pues aumentan las razones para estar preocupado.

Alerta de LA NIÑA

Ahora mismo el evento ENOS está en fase neutra pero hay ligeros indicios que pudiera inclinarse ligeramente a la NIÑA para el otoño 2020 lo cual coincidiendo con el momento álgido de la temporada ciclónica significa malos presagios para los que vivimos de este lado del atlántico.

Saludos

Salió hace ya unos días y debería por derecho propio estar aquí. La NOAA en su actualización de pronóstico de temporada se lanza con todo y apuesta con que tendremos una temporada que rivalizará con la mítica temporada de 2005

Este es uno de los pronósticos de temporada mas activo que la NOAA ha producido en los 22 años que lleva emitiendo pronósticos de temporada de Huracanes.

El nuevo pronóstico anuncia que tendremos de 19 a 25 Tormentas con Nombre, de 7 a 11 Huracanes y de 3 a 6 Huracanes intensos.



Saludos

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