Seguimiento general de sistemas tropicales. (Análisis, Modelos, Invests...)

Nueva zona de vigilancia en el caribe

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OR DRIFTS WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 

Nueva zona de vigilancia en el caribe

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OR DRIFTS WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 

Vaya, sigue el Caribe haciendo intentos pero no progresan. Por cierto par de buenas OT que transitan por el Atlántico ahora mismo.

Saludos 

     El Pacífico Mexicano está de regreso



ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI JUL 15 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE
AREA HAS FORMED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT DRIFTS
NORTHWESTWARD.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Podeis indicar previsiones a mas largo plazo aunque sean basadas en modelos? Es que me voy a puertoplata (Rep Dominicana) del 19 al 26 de este mes y quisiera saber que tipo de "fiesta" puede haber por la zona. Gracias.

   El Pacífico Mexicano está de regreso



ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI JUL 15 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE
AREA HAS FORMED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT DRIFTS
NORTHWESTWARD.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Consenso de modelos sobre el progreso de esta perturbación. GFS como mínimo ve una Tormenta Tropical.

Loop GFS



Pacífico activo y Atlántico muerto.

 

Cita de: diego98 en Sábado 16 Julio 2011 04:22:11 am

   El Pacífico Mexicano está de regreso



ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI JUL 15 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE
AREA HAS FORMED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT DRIFTS
NORTHWESTWARD.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Consenso de modelos sobre el progreso de esta perturbación. GFS como mínimo ve una Tormenta Tropical.

Loop GFS


Pacífico activo y Atlántico muerto.

 

Buen manchurrón morado de precipitación en la zona prevista del Pacífico mejicano. En cuanto a la zona Atlántica, el panceo contínuo del Azoriano hacia el Oeste y su fortaleza, hace que las O.T. que salen desde Africa hacia el W. lleguen muy desgastadas, si no muertas. Ojalá me equivoque, pero parece que va a ser la tónica en lo que queda de mes de Julio.

La zona que debería desarrollarse al salir al pacífico en estos momentos se encuentra cruzando centroamérica.

La zona que debería desarrollarse al salir al pacífico en estos momentos se encuentra cruzando centroamérica.

 

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS. ONLY SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO DUE TO LAND INTERACTION...BUT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR AFTER THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
AMERICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
LARGE DISTURBANCE.

Y en el Atlántico...
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A SURFACE TROUGH IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS FROM
THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS EASTWARD OVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE ...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR
SOUTH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Y en el Atlántico...
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A SURFACE TROUGH IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS FROM
THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS EASTWARD OVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE ...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR
SOUTH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Dos sistemas en seguimiento y también una buena O.T. saliendo en estos momentos de Africa, frente a Cabo Verde.

Parece que este verano la temporada ciclónica en el Atlántico norte está siendo inferior a los últimos años. Aguas oceánicas demasiado frías?

¡Ah....el bendito Stewart ataca de nuevo
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 171159
TWOSPN

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM EDT DOMINGO 17 DE JULIO DE 2011

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADOS CON UNA AMPLIA AREA DE BAJA PRESION
LOCALIZADO CERCA DE 100 MILLAS AL ESTE DE CABO CANAVERAL FLORIDA
CONTINUA MOSTRANDO SENALES DE ORGANIZACION. VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES
ALTOS ESTAN SOLOS MARGINALMENTE CONDUCENTES PARA EL DESARROLLO EN
ESTE MOMENTO...PERO PUDIERAN SER ALGO MAS FAVORABLES EN EL PROXIMO
DIA O DOS. ESTE SISTEMA TIENE UNA PROBABILIDAD MEDIANA...30 POR
CIENTO...DE QUE ESTE SISTEMA SE CONVIERTA EN UN CICLON TROPICAL
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL
SUR. UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA ESTA
PROGRAMADO PARA INVESTIGAR EL AREA MAS TARDE HOY...DE SER NECESARIO.

EN EL RESTO DEL AREA...NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADORES PASCH/STEWART