Seguimiento general de sistemas tropicales. (Análisis, Modelos, Invests...)

Cita de: Hardstyle en Sábado 08 Octubre 2011 00:19:46 am

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Al final ese calor oceánico se acumula en una delgada capa superficial que apenas supera los 200 metros, aun en el mar tropical mas cálido mas allá de los 700 - 800 metros las temperaturas son bien bajas.

Interesante datos Rayo , yo pensaba que el calor oceánico se acumulaba en una capa de 500 metros.

  Gracias

Fijate que la profundidad de la iso 26ºC no supera los 150m en todo el Caribe y aquí está bien profunda.

Saludos 

Interesante.

Entonces... En las aguas tropicales , a una profundidad de hasta 500 metros ; la temperatura ronda los 20º?

La variación de la temperatura con la profundidad quedaría de la siguiente manera :



Por lo tanto las diferencias más grandes se encuentra en el potente WPAC.

El NHC ya comienza hacer seguimiento al tema  ya mencionado hace ya varios días sobre el Norte de Cuba y la Florida.


A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD OVER MUCH
OF CUBA...MOST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND ALL OF THE BAHAMAS.
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

70%

A SMALL BUT WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE
CENTER...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD.



 

 

El temporal se está recrudeciendo de manera bastante fuerte....

Echad un vistazo....



http://www.earthcam.com/usa/florida/miamibeach/

Up 30%



GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

Cuidadito con el actual 92W.... Los modelos ven un desarrollo bastante fuerte y nuevamente contra Filipinas. 



 

El JTWC mantiene como "Medium" esta zona de inestabilidad; PAGASA en su comunicado de las 5AM habla de una LPA a unos 870 kms al E de Mindanao.... La imagen del satélite sigue siendo buena...

93LINVEST.35kts-1007mb-274N-794W

 



 

Lanzada alerta por formación ciclónica en el WPAC sobre el disturbio 92W.

WTPN21 PGTW 091800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.2N 135.2E TO 8.6N 128.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 091143Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.1N 134.7E.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.0N
135.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.1N 134.7E, APPROXIMATELY 25 NM NORTH OF
PALAU. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT
DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 091143Z SSMIS 37H IMAGE SHOWS SHARP LOW
LEVEL CONVECTIVE CURVATURE AND THE 85H SLICE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LLCC. RECENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM KOROR, PALAU SHOW A FIVE MILLIBAR (MB) DROP IN
PRESSURE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS FROM 1013 MB TO 1008 MB ALONG WITH
SURFACE WINDS OF 17 KNOTS GUSTING TO 23 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF A POINT SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT IN AN AREA
OF LIGHT (05-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE CONTINUED FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT AND CONTINUED DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.

[/b]

Pequeño pero vaya pinta que tiene... 



Directo nuevamente a Filipinas.

A ver si alguien puede abrir Hilo de seguimiento , por que yo no voy a poder hacerle un buen seguimiento está semana.

 





 

CMC para este próximo fin de semana.... 



¿D.T. 12  "EPAC"?