Nueva e inmensa onda tropical en las inmediaciones de Palau.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.4N
152.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.3N 144.5E, APPROXIMATELY 640 NM SOUTH
OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION OVER A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE CYCLONE EXISTS IN TANDEM WITH THE LLCC DISCUSSED
IN PARA 2.B.(1) AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTERLY WIND BURST IN THE
EQUATORIAL LATITUDES. A 271401Z OCEANSAT IMAGE REVEALS 25-35 KNOT
WESTERLIES ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION AND A WEAK BUT
WELL-DEFINED LLCC. A 272202Z SSMIS IMAGE AND A 280001Z IMAGE BOTH
INDICATE MORE ORGANIZED AND DEVELOPED CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE AREA
WITH AN APPARENT POINT SOURCE OVER THE CONVECTION. A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL IS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA AND IS ALSO PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW INTO THE DIVERGENT SIDE
OF THE TUTT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW AT 05-10 KNOTS BUT AS THE
AREA PROCEEDS WEST IT WILL MOVE INTO AN AREA OF STRONG VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (25-30 KNOTS), WHICH WILL HAMPER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS
SOME MODEL DEVELOPMENT INDICATED IN THE LATER TAUS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) FOR
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND BETTER ORGANIZATION
OF THE CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
MEDIUM.
Todo parece indicar que seguirá los pasos de nuestro amigo Duksuri.