Seguimiento general de sistemas tropicales. (Análisis, Modelos, Invests...)

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS... SHOWERS...AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. 
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH IN A DAY OR SO...AND SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY.



Vamos a ver si sale Debby de aquí.

Subimos al 50%, el cmc sigue siendo muy agresivo con el desarrollo y el GFS lo manda a Florida como posible Tormenta Tropical y con un posible buen desarrollo en el Atlántico.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
CHRIS...LOCATED ABOUT 625 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND.

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
BEYOND THAT TIME...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES GULF
COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.  HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH
SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Y aún sin tener un Invest 

Siguiente posible ciclón camino de Filipinas y posterior regeneración en el Mar de la China Meridional, la marina intuye sistema bastante fuerte, camino de Taiwan.

 

Siguiente posible ciclón camino de Filipinas y posterior regeneración en el Mar de la China Meridional, la marina intuye sistema bastante fuerte, camino de Taiwan.

 

Exacto, se trata del sistema 94-W.


GFS desarrolla.

Siguiente posible ciclón camino de Filipinas y posterior regeneración en el Mar de la China Meridional, la marina intuye sistema bastante fuerte, camino de Taiwan.

 

Sí, es el invest94-W, pero tiene que independizarse de la vaguada monzónica que lo abraza y lo mantiene bajo su radio de influencia. Por lo demás, los modelos está de acuerdo en que será un gran sistema en unos 2 ó 3 dias, sobre todo el GFS y el NOGAPS.
Un saludo.

Gracias por el apunte, no me había fijado de que ya tenía Invest, y estaba seguido oficialmente por la marina, por cierto, el europeo lo manda como Tormenta Tropical a Hong Kong.



Tranquilidad por el resto de zonas, exceptuando el Golfo.

 

Se va animando el tema por la zona de Filipinas.

El Invest 94W ha sido degradado a Low por la marina, mientras tanto, ha surgido una nueva onda tropical que es alzada a MEDIUM en las ultimas horas, y este disturbio, si que tiene todas las papeletas para un desarrollo potente.

95WINVEST.15kts-1010mb-119N-1346E

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.8N 135.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 205 NM NORTHWEST OF YAP, FEDERATED STATES OF
MICRONESIA. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS STEADILY CONSOLIDATED
AND DEEPENED AS A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO ENHANCE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A 250101Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETRY PASS SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON
TROUGH. ULA INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTHEAST OF A RIDGE AXIS
AND JUST SOUTH OF THE TUTT IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VWS.
ADDITIONALLY, THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST IS PROMOTING A STEADY
SOUTHWESTWARD OUTFLOW. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM YAP AND PALAU SHOW A
SURGE OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FEEDING INTO THE LLCC. NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE COMING INTO AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING THIS CYCLONE VERSUS THE
DISTURBANCE IN PARA 1.B.(1). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. IN VIEW OF THE EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
THAT IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS ELEVATED TO MEDIUM.

Las condiciones son muy favorables para que de aquí surja un buen ciclón, bastante incertidumbre en su Track, unos lo ven camino de Luzón y posterior fortalecimiento camino de China, y otros lo mandan a Taiwan.

Estaremos atentos.

 

Es a muchas horas pero el Europeo se saca de la manga un Huracán de cierta entidad, furulando por el Pacífico este.



 

Primera Onda Tropical africana camino de Cabo Verde, y que según el GFS... llegaría viva hasta el Caribe 



 

Tenemos en pleno Atlántico una nueva onda tropical, que va justo delante de la que comenté yo ayer.

1. A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED HALFWAY BETWEEN THE WEST
COAST OF AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT..IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO
OCCUR...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



Los modelos ven un ligero desarrollo de la onda tropical que esta situada en las inmediaciones de Cabo Verde.

Nueva e inmensa onda tropical en las inmediaciones de Palau.

 THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.4N
152.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.3N 144.5E, APPROXIMATELY 640 NM SOUTH
OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION OVER A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE CYCLONE EXISTS IN TANDEM WITH THE LLCC DISCUSSED
IN PARA 2.B.(1) AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTERLY WIND BURST IN THE
EQUATORIAL LATITUDES. A 271401Z OCEANSAT IMAGE REVEALS 25-35 KNOT
WESTERLIES ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION AND A WEAK BUT
WELL-DEFINED LLCC. A 272202Z SSMIS IMAGE AND A 280001Z IMAGE BOTH
INDICATE MORE ORGANIZED AND DEVELOPED CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE AREA
WITH AN APPARENT POINT SOURCE OVER THE CONVECTION. A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL IS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA AND IS ALSO PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW INTO THE DIVERGENT SIDE
OF THE TUTT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW AT 05-10 KNOTS BUT AS THE
AREA PROCEEDS WEST IT WILL MOVE INTO AN AREA OF STRONG VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (25-30 KNOTS), WHICH WILL HAMPER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS
SOME MODEL DEVELOPMENT INDICATED IN THE LATER TAUS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) FOR 
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND BETTER ORGANIZATION
OF THE CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.



Todo parece indicar que seguirá los pasos de nuestro amigo Duksuri.