Cuenta atrás para la muerte de TONYAire seco + cizalladura = poca convección + centro expuestohttp://imageshack.us/a/img706/6369/tonyvis.jpg
000WTNT44 KNHC 252034TCDAT4POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192012500 PM AST THU OCT 25 2012SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF TONYREMAINS COMPLETELY EXPOSED DUE TO OVER 40 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLYSHEAR. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS ALSO GRADUALLY BEEN LOSINGDEFINITION AS THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD SHIELD SEPARATES FARTHER FROMTHE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT IN AGREEMENT WITHLATEST DVORAK CI NUMBERS. GIVEN THE DECAYING STRUCTURE OF THECYCLONE...TONY IS BEING DECLARED A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON THISADVISORY. POST-TROPICAL TONY SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY A LARGEBAROCLINIC LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.THE HEADING OF TONY HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE RIGHT...AND THE INITIALMOTION ESTIMATE IS 075/19. TONY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN A DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOWOVER THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND GRADUALLY DECELERATE BEFORELOSING ITS IDENTITY. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO BUT AGAIN SOUTHOF THE PREVIOUS ONE...CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 25/2100Z 31.2N 34.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 26/0600Z 31.8N 31.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 26/1800Z 32.5N 28.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 27/0600Z 33.2N 25.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED$$FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN