En la zona de Kolkata entraría con unos 60 nudos.
WTIO31 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 20.5N 87.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 87.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 22.9N 88.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 24.4N 89.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 25.3N 89.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 21.1N 88.1E.
20MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (AMPHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
129NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WEAKENED SYSTEM WITH
UNIFORM CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) THAT CONTINUES TO ERODE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 200325Z
METOP-B ASCAT PASS AND A 200722Z ATMS MICROWAVE PASS WHICH SHOWS
THAT THE STRONGEST REMAINING CONVECTION IS NOW LIMITED TO THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT. RADAR DATA FROM INDIA SUPPORTS THE ASSESSMENT OF
THE MICROWAVE DATA AND THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AT 85 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS), AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ESTIMATE OF T4.2 (69 KNOTS) AND A 200325Z SATELLITE CONSENSUS
ESTIMATE OF 91 KNOTS. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINAL, WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
DISPLACED BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER NER
CENTERED TO THE EAST. THIS TRACK MOTION IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHEAR IS TAKING ITS TOLL ON THE SYSTEM
AS INDICATED BY THE EROSION OF THE CDO AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, WITH CONTINUOUS
WEAKENING FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL SOUTH OF
KOLKATA NEAR 201200Z, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INLAND WHILE RAPIDLY
WEAKENING DUE TO SUSTAINED WESTERLY VWS AND TERRAIN INTERACTION,
BEFORE DISSIPATING BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 35
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z.//
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