Ya lo dijo "aquel"......
Y como el ave Fénix, renacerá de sus cenizas. Pues eso, nueva Depresión Tropical
05WFIVE 25Kts-1004Mb y con tintes de ir ascendiendo hacia el WNW y según el JTWC, con rápida intensificación en 72 horas, debido a las buenas condiciones que se va a encontrar en su camino, como aguas de 28 a 30º C, baja cizalladura y buen flujo de salida. De momento le dan el el Track un máximo de 90 Kts. Este es el parte del JTWC:
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED JUST NORTH OF
WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED 6-HOUR
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATED AS FORMATIVE BANDS SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPENED AND WRAPPED
TIGHTER INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY, THE LATEST OF WHICH A 102205Z SSMIS,
CAPTURED THE RAPID GROWTH OF CONVECTION OVER A PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED
LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND
EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE SSMIS IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 25 KNOTS FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS TD 05W HAS TRACKED
CLOSER AND IS NOW 05 DEGREES SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THAT POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED
OVER THE CYCLONE AS IT REESTABLISHED AN OUTFLOW LINK WITH A TUTT CELL
TO THE NORTHEAST. THE TD IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN AND ESTABLISHES
THE FORECAST REASONING FOR THE SYSTEM.
B. TD 05W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE RIM OF THE
STEERING RIDGE. AFTER TAU 48, IT WILL MOVE ON A MORE NORTHWESTWARD
DIRECTION INTO A BREAK IN THE STR, CAUSED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. DURING THIS TIME FRAME, THE SYSTEM
WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, IN ADDITION
TO THE WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SST (28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS),
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM WILL REACH TYPHOON
INTENSITY BY TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY FOR TD 05W TO UNDERGO
RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS IT TRACKS OVER VERY WARM SST ENHANCED BY THE
WARM KURUSHIO CURRENT AND IMPROVING RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE
FRONT SLOPE OF THE ADVANCING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MENTIONED IN PARA
3.B. ADDITIONALLY, THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE LIMITED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH WBAR, AS THE SOLE LEFT OUTLIER. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS
VERY CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS WITH A SLIGHT BIAS TO THE RIGHT TO
OFFSET WBAR. IN VIEW OF THE RELATIVELY TIGHT MODEL AGREEMENT, THE
SIMPLICITY OF THE STEERING PATTERN, AND THE ESTABLISHED STORM MOTION,
THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 72.
HOWEVER, THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK SPEEDS AFTER TAU 72 IS
POOR.