NHC mantiene la intensidad en 55 kT según el ultimo parte, el Nº 10

A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM AMSU...SSMIS...SSM/I...AND WINDSAT
SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF BLAS REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS
MODEL AND UW-CIMSS SATELLITE ANALYSIS THAT BOTH INDICATE ABOUT 10
KT OF NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SHEAR OVER BLAS.

MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BLAS HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY.
THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING INTO PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT DURING THE PERIOD...
ESPECIALLY AFTER 48 HOURS

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      19/2100Z 16.7N 110.5W    55 KT
12HR VT     20/0600Z 16.9N 111.8W    55 KT
24HR VT     20/1800Z 17.1N 113.8W    50 KT
36HR VT     21/0600Z 17.3N 115.7W    45 KT
48HR VT     21/1800Z 17.3N 117.7W    40 KT
72HR VT     22/1800Z 17.0N 121.5W    35 KT
96HR VT     23/1800Z 16.5N 125.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     24/1800Z 16.0N 129.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Para mí que "este" no quiere ser menos que CELIA y el "eye like feature" está conseguido. Veremos si coincide con el "microondas".

mmm, no lo creo Sudoku, en el microondas de hace 3-4 horas no se veía nada.
Mucha cizalladura, convección desplazada al SO...

La marina se ha cargado el floater sobre BLAS 

En fin, BLAS se desintegra, en aguas no tropicales y sobre ambiente seco. El NHC le da 40kt en su último parte

zona desfavorable



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Como comentáis, Blas  va perdiendo poco a poco fuerza y es que no se mueve en un entorno muy favorable.



A pesar de que la cizalladura sea "buena", la SST, el aire seco y demás, impiden su desarrollo.

Vaya, éste es como una mosca cojonera, cuándo crees que ya va a desaparecer de una vez, ahí está y sigue y sigue dando la lata...

Las previsiones no son muy optimistas...
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      20/0900Z 17.5N 112.3W    40 KT
12HR VT     20/1800Z 17.7N 113.7W    35 KT
24HR VT     21/0600Z 18.0N 115.7W    30 KT
36HR VT     21/1800Z 18.1N 117.6W    25 KT
48HR VT     22/0600Z 18.0N 119.6W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT     23/0600Z 17.2N 123.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT     24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

En el nuevo aviso BLAS continua con esos 40 KT , la verdad a logrado resistir a las condiciones desfavorables en las que se encuentra.

Vaya, yo que no le daba mucha chance, y mantiene los 40 kt
Bueeeeno, desde el NHC no lo matan directamente, aunque luego en el pronóstico si...

BLAS HAS A SMALL CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION BUT THERE ARE NO BANDING
FEATURES.  BLENDING DVORAK T-NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES YIELDS A WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
ALTHOUGH THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE SOMEWHAT...THE STORM IS MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
WATERS AND INTO AN INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR MASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      20/1500Z 17.6N 113.4W    40 KT
12HR VT     21/0000Z 17.9N 114.8W    35 KT
24HR VT     21/1200Z 18.1N 116.8W    30 KT
36HR VT     22/0000Z 18.1N 118.8W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT     22/1200Z 17.9N 120.8W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT     23/1200Z 17.5N 125.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT     24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Es carne de cañon, bueno, del aire seco, en este caso.

Blas baja a depresión tropical con 30 nudos

VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH BLAS.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW ONLY A FEW CELLS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE
OF THE CIRCULATION. ALTHOUGH SOME DEEP CONVECTION COULD REDEVELOP
WITH THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM TONIGHT...OVERALL THE CIRCULATION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A
MORE STABLE AIR MASS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS BLAS BECOMING A
REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS EVENT COULD CERTAINLY OCCUR
SOONER THAN THAT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      20/2100Z 17.9N 114.8W    30 KT
12HR VT     21/0600Z 18.1N 116.4W    25 KT
24HR VT     21/1800Z 18.2N 118.4W    25 KT
36HR VT     22/0600Z 18.1N 120.4W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT     22/1800Z 17.9N 122.4W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT     23/1800Z 17.5N 127.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT     24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Poca vida le queda...

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      21/0900Z 18.0N 117.1W    30 KT
12HR VT     21/1800Z 18.1N 118.8W    25 KT
24HR VT     22/0600Z 18.0N 121.1W    25 KT
36HR VT     22/1800Z 17.7N 123.4W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT     23/0600Z 17.4N 125.6W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT     24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

24/36 horas de vida le quedan por delante.

Blas sigue vivo, probablemente el próximo parte sea el último.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME MEAGER CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT
OF BLAS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE
SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR NOW.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL
BE HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD BE
A LITTLE WEAKER.  BY THE END OF THE DAY... BLAS IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN INTO A REMNANT LOW DUE TO COLD SSTS AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT.   A CONTINUED WEAKENING OF BLAS IS LIKELY UNTIL
DISSIPATION IN A FEW DAYS. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      21/1500Z 18.0N 118.4W    30 KT
12HR VT     22/0000Z 18.0N 120.1W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24HR VT     22/1200Z 17.8N 122.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT     23/0000Z 17.4N 125.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT     23/1200Z 17.0N 127.4W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT     24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE