Bueno... Los de Reunión lanzan el primer aviso.
AWIO20 FMEE 071159
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2012/01/07 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1:
WARNING SUMMARY:
Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:
Transequatorial flow is well established West of 60E, and is weak East of 80E. It supplies the
disturbed weather area 99S in the Mozambique channel. Over the Indian Ocean, the ITCZ is poorly
defined and with weak convective activity.
Zone of disturbed weather in the Mozambique channel:
Animated satellite pictures depicts fluctuating convection. At 1100Z the LLCC is located
approximately near 17.8S/41.3E, about 180km south-west of Juan de Nova. It moves currently eastsouth-
eastward at about 4kt. The MSLP is estimated at 1004hPa. The sea level pressure at the
station of Juan de Nova varied from -2hPa over the past 24 hours.
Environmental conditions are favourable for the deepening of this low : SST of 28-29°C, good
monsoon inflow, weak vertical wind shear, good upper level divergence (cf. CIMSS). The trade
inflow is expected to improve by 12 to 18 tau in relation with the rebuilding of the subtropical
anticyclone south of Madagascar. This system is forecast to develop rapidly within the next 12 to 36
hours. It is forecast to track south-eastward, under the steering influence of a low to mid level ridge
in its north.
According to the avalaible NWP models, this system should make landfall south-west of
Madagascar (in the area of Morondava) during sunday to monday night. This forecast is uncertain
due to the fair confidence in the actual location of the LLCC.
There is no other suspect area over the basin.
For the next 24 hours, the potential for the development of a tropical depression is good in the
Mozambique Channel.
14 Respuestas
5816 Vistas