Lanzada alerta por formación ciclónica para el bicho que lleva varios días gestándose por aguas del Canal de Mozambique.

99SINVEST.30kts-1000mb-165S-407E


ALERT      ATCF MIL 99S 120106180000
2012010618
-16.0  40.2
-21.1  44.1
185
-16.5  40.7
061930
1201061921
1
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTXS21 PGTW 061930
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
185 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.0S 40.2E TO 21.1S 44.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 061830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.5S 40.7E.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS.



De momento Reunión ... Sin mención

Los de la Nasa apuestan por un desarrollo bastante fuerte.


System 99S Now Better Organized on NASA Satellite Data

The low pressure area near Madagascar now has a high chance of becoming a tropical depression this weekend, as it appeared to be consolidating and organizing on NASA satellite data today.

NASA's Aqua satellite passed over System 99S on January 6 at 1134 UTC (6:34 a.m. EST) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument captured an infrared image of the storm. It showed strong thunderstorms building up around the center of circulation. Bands of thunderstorms appear to be building east of the center.

At 1134 UTC, System 99S's maximum sustained winds were near 27 to 32 knots (31 to 37 mph/50 to 60 kmh) - right near tropical depression status (35 mph). The minimum central pressure was 1000 millibars. 99S was centered near 15.2 South latitude and 43.0 East longitude, about 380 miles west-northwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar.

Because wind shear is light and sea surface temperatures are well over the 80F (26.6C) threshold for maintaining a tropical cyclone, 99S stands a good chance to develop.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center gives this a high chance of developing into a depression this weekend.

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/archives/2012/h2012_99S.html

Los de Reunión como siempre pasando literalmente de sistemas que no les afectan directamente ...... 

99SINVEST.30kts-1000mb-178S-408E

Visible 2 klm

Bueno... Los de Reunión lanzan el primer aviso.

AWIO20 FMEE 071159
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2012/01/07 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1:
WARNING SUMMARY:
Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:
Transequatorial flow is well established West of 60E, and is weak East of 80E. It supplies the
disturbed weather area 99S in the Mozambique channel. Over the Indian Ocean, the ITCZ is poorly
defined and with weak convective activity.

Zone of disturbed weather in the Mozambique channel:
Animated satellite pictures depicts fluctuating convection. At 1100Z the LLCC is located
approximately near 17.8S/41.3E, about 180km south-west of Juan de Nova. It moves currently eastsouth-
eastward at about 4kt. The MSLP is estimated at 1004hPa. The sea level pressure at the
station of Juan de Nova varied from -2hPa over the past 24 hours.
Environmental conditions are favourable for the deepening of this low : SST of 28-29°C, good
monsoon inflow, weak vertical wind shear, good upper level divergence (cf. CIMSS). The trade
inflow is expected to improve by 12 to 18 tau in relation with the rebuilding of the subtropical
anticyclone south of Madagascar. This system is forecast to develop rapidly within the next 12 to 36
hours. It is forecast to track south-eastward, under the steering influence of a low to mid level ridge
in its north.
According to the avalaible NWP models, this system should make landfall south-west of
Madagascar (in the area of Morondava) during sunday to monday night. This forecast is uncertain
due to the fair confidence in the actual location of the LLCC.
There is no other suspect area over the basin.
For the next 24 hours, the potential for the development of a tropical depression is good in the
Mozambique Channel.

99SINVEST.25kts-1004mb-177S-410E

Baja un poco de fuerza para la marina y los Franceses a la suya...

La marina alza al 99-S a la Categoría de Tormenta Tropical con 35 KT.

05SFIVE.35kts-996mb-184S-413E





24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 19.9S 42.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS

Todo favorable para el desarrollo (SST superior a 29º , cizalladura 10-15 KT  y sin aire seco a la vista) , pero Madagascar lo tiene bien cerca , por lo que poco se puede esperar del 05S.

Reunión sigue de vacaciones ... 

 



Que buena pinta tiene

Pues tenemos Tormenta Tropical ( CHANDA?)  que ne las próximas horas entrará en Madagascar; con el relieve de la isla su intensidad bajará considerablement hasta depresión para fortalecerse después a su salida por la costa E de la isla...

Gracias por la imagen Kauri 

Chanda tendrá que esperar y lo mismo ni llega a ser nombrada por los franceses. Para ellos posee vientos máximos de 30 KT , por lo que de momento se queda como Depresión Tropical.

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 2/5/20112012
1.A DEPRESSION TROPICALE 5
2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 08/01/2012 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.8 S / 42.7 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 9 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 999 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :74 KM

Para la marina americana , se mantiene como Tormenta Tropical.

Entrando en estos momentos por la provicia de Antananarivo y afectando de manera indirecta a la provincia  Toliara.

Meteosat Indian Ocean Data Coverage Multi-Sensor Precipitation Estimate West Indian Ocean

Loop





A ver si es capaz de traspasar Madagascar y volverse a reactivar pero de manera muy débil en aguas del Índico.

Visible