B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 79.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 77.1E, APPROXIMATELY 445 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 220841Z NOAA-19 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A MORE DEFINED CENTER. A 220333Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS FAVORABLE AT 29 TO 30 CELSIUS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE INDICATES IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 221400) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
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