Lanzada alerta ciclónica para el descomunal sistema tropical situado justo encima de las islas pacíficas de Salomón, y que según modelos globales, podría atacar de manera muy virulenta a Nueva Caledonia como todo un poderoso ciclón tropical en los próximos e inmediatos islas, una vez comience su viaje, rumbo sur.
94PINVEST.30kts-1000mb-97S-1635EServicio Meteorológico de Fiji TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A04 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 27/1955 UTC 2012 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F CENTRE 999HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.4S 162.3E AT
271800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. TD05F MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT
7 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 25 KNOTS INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION
HAS INCREASED NEAR THE SYSTEM IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. LLCC DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION AND IN A MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRNOMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA. SST
AROUND 30 DEGRESS CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.35 WRAP, THUS
YEILDS T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS. DT=2.0, PT AND MET AGREE.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS MOVE TD05F SOUTHWEST THEN SOUTH WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS HIGH.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 280600 UTC 10.1S 161.7E MOV SW AT 04 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 281800 UTC 10.9S 161.4E MOV SSW AT 04 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 290600 UTC 11.7S 161.2E MOV SSW AT 04 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 291800 UTC 12.6S 161.2E MOV S AT 05 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 280200 UTC.
Condiciones ambientales favorables en las próximas 48 horas, aunque parece que la cizalladura de componente oeste podría aumentar a valores moderados en las inmediaciones de Nueva Caledonia, pero ya debería de ser un Ciclón para entonces.
Adjunto algunos enlaces de los diferentes organismos oficiales que hay por la zona.
Samoa Meteorological Division
http://www.mnre.gov.ws/meteorology/forecast.htmFidji Meteorological Service
http://www.met.gov.fj/Météo France Calédonie
http://www.meteo.nc/Météo France Polynésie
http://www.meteo.pf/Vanuatu Meteorological Service
http://www.meteo.gov.vu/Home/tabid/36/Default.aspxCook Islands Meteorological Service
http://informet.net/ckimet/Tonga Meteorological Service
http://www.met.gov.to/Salomon Island Meteorological Service
http://www.met.gov.sb/