Ciclón Tropical Cat.3 GARRY (10.P - Huracán Cat.2 S.S - Pacífico SW)

Nueva Tormenta Tropical por la zona de Fiji. Depresión Tropical para http://www.met.gov.fj/, situada al noroeste del pequeño archipiélago de Pago Pago, con previsión de ciclón en dos o tres días, a medida que se desplace dirección este-sureste.

10PTEN.35kts-996mb-128S-1768W



 

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F
6:00 AM FST January 21 2013
======================================

Gale Watch For American Samoa

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 09F (999 hPa) located near 12.8S 175.6W has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving east at 13 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Organization has not changed much in past 24 hours. Convection has decreased significantly influenced by diurnal variation and increasing environmental shear. System lies south of an upper ridge in a moderate sheared environment. Outflow good to the east. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. Dvorak analysis based on 0.4 wrap in LOG10 spiral, yielding DT=2.5, MET=2.5, PT=2.0. Final Dvorak number based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Global models have picked up the system and move it eastward with some intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 12.6S 173.6W - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 12.8S 172.1W - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 13.4S 170.3W - 50 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)

Ciclón Tropical Categoría 1 Garry

HURRICANE WARNING 077 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 24/0810 UTC 2013 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GARRY CENTRE 975HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0
SOUTH 165.2 WEST AT 240600 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 14.0S 165.2W AT 240600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 50 KNOTS BY
250600 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
             OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 14.6S 163.9W AT 241800 UTC
              AND NEAR 15.5S 162.7W AT 250600 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 076.

Tropical Cyclone 10P (Garry) Warning #16 Final Warning
Issued at 27/0900Z