Ciclón Tropical Categoría 4 EVAN (04.F - Huracán 4 - S.S - Samoa - Pacífico SW)

Actualizan Fiji y la marina, y esta ultima rectificando Track, pero igualando intensidad máxima prevista en 115 KT.

REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 178.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (EVAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 95 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR)
SHOWS AN INTENSE SYSTEM WITH DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND
A RAGGED 7NM EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE SEEN IN
THE IR, POSITIONING FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES AND PHFO, AND RADAR
IMAGERY FROM FIJI WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY HAS CONTINUED
TO INCREASE, WITH CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES NOW
INDICATING 113 KNOTS FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE REMAINS OVER THE
TC 04P, GIVING AMPLE RADIAL OUTFLOW WHILE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS
BEING ENHANCED BY THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO THE SOUTH AND NOW LOW (5 TO
10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 04P CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR), LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF FIJI. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH,
CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF EASTERN AUSTRALIA, IS FORECAST TO ERODE
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, CAUSING THE STR TO BECOME MORE
MERIDIONALLY ALIGNED, ALLOWING TC 04P TO TRACK SOUTHWARD BEYOND TAU
24. A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 48 IS FORECAST AS VWS OFFSETS
THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW FROM THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. BEYOND TAU 48,
STRONGER VWS AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ACCELERATE
THE WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JGSM AND EGRR, MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH EGRR AND JGSM BOTH ERRONEOUSLY DRIVING THE
SYSTEM INTO THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER
AND EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE EGRR AND JGSM
SOLUTIONS. DUE TO THE TIGHT AGREEMENT AMONG THE OTHER CONSENSUS
MEMBERS, FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z AND 172100Z.//
NNNN

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #24
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN, CATEGORY FOUR (04F)
6:00 AM FST December 17 2012
===================================

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP (Fiji/Rotuma)

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE BUA PROVINCE, WESTERN PARTS OF VITI LEVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS (Fiji/Rotuma)

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR CIKOBIA, TAVEUNI, THE REST OF VANUA LEVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, NORTHERN LAU AND LOMAIVITI GROUP, REST OF VITI LEVU AND NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS, KADAVU, BEQA, VATULELE AND NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS (Fiji/Rotuma)

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan (945 hPa) located at 16.4S 178.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 13 knots. Position good based on radar imagery/multispectral enhanced infrared radar and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
========================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
90 NM from the center in southern semi-circle
60 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
80 NM from the center in northeast quadrant

Eye becomingdiscernable in enhanced infrared radar. Cyclone lies under an upper diffluent region. Outflow good to the north and south. EVAN lies in a low sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 28C. Dvorak analysis based on eye patter with B eye in CMG surround.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 17.0S 177.5E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 18.2S 176.6E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 20.7S 176.4E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)

Su centro comienza a quedarse libre de nubosidad, ahora será mucho más fácil observar su trayectoria, aunque no penetre directamente en Fiji, los efectos van a ser devastadores.



Cyclone Evan strikes Fiji: 'This is as serious as it gets'



http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10854400



Se abre el cielo en Yasawa Island.   

Y finalmente alcanzo los 125 KT  ...




<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/gh6S9D6Hs8A?version=3&amp;" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/gh6S9D6Hs8A?version=3&amp;</a>

Su centro abandona definitivamente Fiji, y comenzará a degradarse muy lentamente (115KT) dirección sur, camino de Nueva Zelanda.

 

Lentamente, lentamente parece que no... 



Tiene el eyewall abierto. Raro es que no haya experimentado un ERC, porque cuadraria

04PEVAN.65kts-974mb-223S-1774E



Milagrosamente no se han producido víctimas mortales en Fiji, aunque van a tardar mucho en recuperarse de los devastadores efectos de Evan.

Samoa sigue sumida en el caos, y el número de víctimas mortales se eleva por el momento a cuatro.

 

Tropical Cyclone 04P (Evan) Warning #22 Final Warning
Issued at 19/2100Z