Huracán KARL Categoría 3 (13L- Caribe - BoC)

¿A qué esta esperando el NHC? De verdad que no lo entiendo. 

El tiempo es oro en este tipo de situaciones, para tomar las medidas oportunas. El SMN de México, les está esperando, para emitir las alertas.

Es a las 23:00, no tardan.....

Mira, ya está.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 21.5N 96.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.


edito:Según el NHC golpeo en Yucatán con 45 kts y posterior desarrollo hasta 55 kts en el GOM, impacto como Tormenta Tropical.

Pico de 45kt antes de tocar tierra, interesante.... Más interesante la puerta abierta del parte del NHC

THE STORM COULD REACH A HIGHER INTENSITY BETWEEN THE 12
AND 24 HR FORECAST POINTS

Usease, que 45kt, o algo más

De momento, alertas de TS para Yucatán

THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 41 KT AT LESS THAN 1500 FT JUST
EAST OF THE CENTER...AND THE SFMR ESTIMATED RELIABLE-LOOKING WINDS
OF 35 KT OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVY RAIN AREAS.  THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE WAS 1001 MB.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED
STRAIGHT TO TROPICAL STORM KARL WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/13.  KARL IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE SHOULD STEER
KARL GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...FOLLOWED BY A GENERAL WESTWARD
MOTION TOWARD MAINLAND MEXICO.  THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS FORECASTING A SOUTH-OF-WEST MOTION BEFORE KARL REACHES THE
COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.  THE FORECAST TRACK WILL SHOW A WESTWARD
MOTION AFTER 72 HR...AND OVERALL IT LIES DOWN THE CENTER OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

KARL IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...
AND THIS IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS.  THE MAJOR
INFLUENCE ON THE INTENSITY WILL BE LAND INTERACTION.  WHILE THE
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS KARL WITH 45-KT WINDS OVER EASTERN
YUCATAN...THE STORM COULD REACH A HIGHER INTENSITY BETWEEN THE 12
AND 24 HR FORECAST POINTS.  OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...KARL SHOULD
RE-INTENSIFY...WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS CALLING FOR IT TO
BECOME A HURRICANE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHAT KIND OF STRUCTURE KARL
WILL HAVE AFTER CROSSING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  

---

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      14/2100Z 18.3N  84.2W    35 KT
 12HR VT     15/0600Z 18.9N  86.0W    40 KT
 24HR VT     15/1800Z 19.6N  88.1W    45 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     16/0600Z 20.4N  90.3W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     16/1800Z 21.0N  92.6W    35 KT...OVER WATER
 72HR VT     17/1800Z 21.5N  96.0W    55 KT
 96HR VT     18/1800Z 21.5N  99.5W    30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Pues según el GFDL seria cat.2 antes de tocar tierra en México, después de pasar por el Yucatán

Se le ve muy bien, desarrollando topes muy fríos en torno al centro  

- ATCF: +5 nudos, 40 nudos.

Mejor organizado aún:

Hay un caza pronosticado para esta mañana, para ver si esos 40kt son algo más. Parece que si es algo más, aunque su tamaño sea pequeño y a simple vista no se pueda decir nada de la imagen microondas. Me recuerda a MARCO 2008

Es curioso que siempre le disminuya la convección por las noches.

Karl ya tiene 55 kt.


000
WTNT43 KNHC 150840
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
400 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING KARL EARLY
THIS MORNING FOUND THAT THE STORM HAS STRENGTHENED SOMEWHAT SINCE
THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE MISSION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 995 MB AND THE MAXIMUM UNCONTAMINATED
SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WIND VELOCITIES WERE ABOUT 55 KT...WHICH IS
THE VALUE USED FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY INTENSITY.  SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW THAT A RATHER SYMMETRICAL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN
IS DEVELOPING OVER KARL...SO SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION COULD
OCCUR BEFORE LANDFALL.  FORTUNATELY...THE TIME IS SHORT BEFORE THE
CENTER SHOULD CROSS THE COAST.

KARL WOBBLED WESTWARD A FEW HOURS AGO BUT THE LATEST AIRCRAFT FIXES
INDICATE THAT A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...AROUND 285/11...HAS
RESUMED.  BASED ON GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS...A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.  THEREFORE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD TRACK APPEARS LIKELY...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE CENTER ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      15/0900Z 18.5N  86.7W    55 KT
 12HR VT     15/1800Z 19.1N  88.3W    50 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     16/0600Z 20.0N  90.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     16/1800Z 20.7N  92.6W    45 KT
 48HR VT     17/0600Z 21.3N  94.4W    60 KT
72HR VT     18/0600Z 21.4N  97.2W    75 KT
 96HR VT     19/0600Z 21.0N 100.0W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Creo que la trayectoria va a ser bastante similar a la de huracán Aléx.

Perdonad este offtopic, pero... ¡¡ME ENCANTA ESTE SUBFORO!! nada más. Seguid así.

 

Creo que ya podría ser Cat1

                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                4.3 / 982.2mb/ 72.2kt

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/adt/odt13L.html