Huracán KARL Categoría 3 (13L- Caribe - BoC)

Ya es CAT 1 NHC

Les da miedo poner la M en el mapa....

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      16/1500Z 19.7N  92.8W    65 KT
 12HR VT     17/0000Z 20.0N  93.9W    75 KT
 24HR VT     17/1200Z 20.3N  95.5W    85 KT
 36HR VT     18/0000Z 20.5N  97.0W    95 KT
 48HR VT     18/1200Z 20.5N  98.8W    50 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     19/1200Z 20.0N 101.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

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¿95kt?

Bah, este llega a major fijo hombre 

Entre 95 y 115 knots...

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc10/ATL/13L.KARL/ssmi/gif/full/Latest.html

 

Entre 95 y 115 knots...

Ese es el aviso de las 11:00 AM EDT

los 115kts son rachas máximas.



Estoy esperando a ver si hay aviso intermedio a las 14:00 EDT....

Up to 70 kts

Resumiendo, debido a que la trayectoria es más al sur...

THE ENVELOPE OF TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD
SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY..

el pronóstico no es tan bullish

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      16/2100Z 19.6N  93.7W    70 KT
 12HR VT     17/0600Z 19.7N  94.9W    75 KT
 24HR VT     17/1800Z 19.7N  96.2W    85 KT
 36HR VT     18/0600Z 19.6N  97.6W    55 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     18/1800Z 19.5N  99.1W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     19/1800Z 19.0N 102.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



Voy con la lengua fuera Parungo....

WOWWWW KARL 

Impresionante KARL en esa imagen Kike, y ojo por que el RECON está encontrando vientos de unos 75kts, 80 kts....



3 hoas a la cama y estoy de vuelta...

Si impresionante la imagen 

Algunos vientos más fuertes que ha encontrado el avión de reconocimiento


Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:   84 knots (~ 96.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind:   85 knots (~ 97.7 mph)

Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:   48 knots (~ 55.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind:   86 knots* (~ 98.9 mph*)

Ya deberian nombrarlo categoría 2

KARL alcanza la categoría 2 pero parece tener más que eso la verdad esque tiene un ojo muy definido casi rodeado por convección intensa

AL, 13, 2010091700,   , BEST,   0, 197N,  941W,  85,  971, HU

el NHC confirma la categoría 2

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB
HAVE REACHED T-NUMBERS OF 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE OR 90 KNOTS AT
0000 UTC. SINCE THEN THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE DISTINCT...
SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION. A RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE CROSSED THE EYE A FEW TIMES THIS EVENING.  THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE DROPPED TO 968 MB AND THE FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS REACHED 90
KNOTS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT ACCOMPANIED BY SFMR MEASUREMENTS OF
85 KNOTS. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED
TO 85 KNOTS.  THIS ESTIMATE COULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THAT THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AS WE SPEAK. KARL HAS
LESS THAN A DAY BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT GIVEN THE VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT...THE FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR KARL TO BE A CATEGORY
THREE HURRICANE AT LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL
OVER THE VERY HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO...BUT KARL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
TORRENTIAL RAINS.

KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS...TRAPPED
SOUTH OF A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. DESPITE SOME DIFFERENCES IN SPEED AMONG
MODELS...THE OVERALL MODEL TREND IS TO KEEP KARL ON A STRAIGHT
WESTWARD PATH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FOLLOWED BY A LANDFALL OVER
THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATE FRIDAY.
THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.



INITIAL      17/0300Z 19.7N  94.5W    85 KT
 12HR VT     17/1200Z 19.7N  95.6W   100 KT
 24HR VT     18/0000Z 19.7N  96.8W    65 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     18/1200Z 19.5N  98.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     19/0000Z 19.5N 100.0W    20 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     20/0000Z...DISSIPATING INLAND