QUE EJEMPLO DE SUPERACIÓN LISA
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB...TAFB AODT ESTIMATES
OF T3.4/53 KT...AND UW-CIMSS 3-HR AVERAGE ADT ESTIMATES OF T3.4/53
KT. A 24/1146Z ASCAT OVERPASS SHOWED 33-KT WINDS EAST OF THE
CENTER...BUT THERE IS PROBABLY SOME UNDER SAMPLING OCCURRING DUE TO
THE VERY SMALL SIZE OF THE INNER-CORE CIRCULATION. THEREFORE...IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT LISA COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN ANALYZED.Preveen desacople debido a la cizalladura.
AS LISA MOVES OVER COLDER WATER AND
ENCOUNTERS MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...THE LOW-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECOUPLE. AS A RESULT... THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AS A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN 48-72 HOURS.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/1500Z 18.9N 27.8W 40 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 19.8N 27.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 25/1200Z 21.2N 28.2W 35 KT
36HR VT 26/0000Z 22.9N 28.6W 35 KT
48HR VT 26/1200Z 24.3N 29.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 27/1200Z 26.5N 29.8W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 28/1200Z 28.0N 30.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Pequeña pero matona, eso sí, ya en las últimas