Sunspot number: 0

Ahora la NASA no esta muy segura de que vayamos a ver manchas los proximos años...

NASA - Are Sunspots Disappearing?

Ahora la NASA no esta muy segura de que vayamos a ver manchas los proximos años...

NASA - Are Sunspots Disappearing?

Esta gráfica es muy representativa de lo que esta ocurriendo con el campos magnético



Los campos magnéticos de manchas solares medido por Livingston y Penn de 1992 - febrero 2009 utilizando una técnica de Zeeman de infrarrojos división.

"Los campos magnéticos de manchas solares están bajando alrededor de un 50 gauss por año", dice Penn. "Si extrapolamos esta tendencia en el futuro, las manchas solares podrían desaparecer por completo hacia el año 2015."

¿Ocurrirá?.,¿Seguiremos con esa tendencia? Ni idea., Ya se vera en un Futuro no muy lejano  

Ya este tema fue tocado hace unos meses por _00_ si mal no recuerdo y como bien dices en pocos años veremos si ha sido una tendencia transitoria ó vamos camino a un mínimo prolongado tipo Maunder solo queda esperar.

Saludos 

No hace tanto que lo comentamos,

https://foro.tiempo.com/climatologia/sunspot+number+0-t88339.0.html;msg2128776#msg2128776

Se me olvidaba poneros el articulo:

QUIET SUN: According to NOAA sunspot counts, the longest stretch of spotless suns during the current solar minimum was 52 days in July, August and Sept. of 2008. The current spate of blank suns is putting that record in jeopardy. The sun is entering its 43rd consecutive day with no sunspots, and there are none in the offing. Deep solar minimum continues.

ARE SUNSPOTS DISAPPEARING? Sunspots are made of magnetism. The "firmament" of a sunspot is not matter but rather a strong magnetic field that appears dark because it blocks the upflow of heat from the sun's fiery depths. Without magnetism, there would be no sunspots.
According to Bill Livingston and Matt Penn of the National Solar Observatory in Tucson, Arizona, sunspot magnetic fields are waning. The two respected solar astronomers have been measuring solar magnetism since 1992. Their technique is based on Zeeman splitting of infrared spectral lines emitted by iron atoms in the vicinity of sunspots. Extrapolating their data into the future suggests that sunspots could completely disappear within decades. That would be a bummer for Spaceweather.com.
Don't count out sunspots just yet, however. While the data of Livingston and Penn are widely thought to be correct, far-reaching extrapolations may be premature. This type of measurement is relatively new, and the data reaches back less than 17 years. "Whether this is an omen of long-term sunspot decline, analogous to the Maunder Minimum, remains to be seen," they caution in a recent EOS article.

One thing is certain. Solar Minimum is a lot more interesting than it sounds

un artículo parecido lo puso TitoYours hace tiempo, (solo que el estudio era de mucho menos tiempo (1-2 años creo recordar, y que critiqué por eso),
y al igual que en este caso, el periodo no alcanza más de un periodo solar, por lo que cualquier conclusión no son más que conjeturas con escaso fundamento, no se puede interpolar y decir que disminuirá con ese ritmo, es una absoluta "tontería",

también se observan picos significativos en pleno mínimo (2007, 2008) lo que a mi parecer es incongruente con esas conclusiones,

mientras no haya algún tipo de medición/"proxy" que permita soportar esas hipótesis no sirve de mucho, quizás en 30 o 40 años...

por otro lado, acaba de entrar en funcionamiento un nuevo heliógrafo, diseñado por Victor D'avila, astrónomo del Observatorio Nacional Brasileño de Astronomía,
que permitirá realizar más de 8000 muestras espectrales del sol por hora (actualmente el mejor equipo realiza 1800 muestras/día)

http://planetainteligente.terra.com.br/noticias_integra_sol.php

otra cosa significativa es la escasez de picos entre 1992 y 2000, parece demasiado desigual respecto a la última década, probablemente sea por haber usado instrumental, o método, diferente,
el análisis yo lo sigo viendo muy forzado y poco contrastado.

añado algo más sobre el artículo sobre "el desvanecimiento de las manchas",

...
The controversy is not about the data. “We know Livingston and Penn are excellent observers,” says Hathaway. “The trend that they have discovered appears to be real.” The part colleagues have trouble believing is the extrapolation. Hathaway notes that most of their data were taken after the maximum of Solar Cycle 23 (2000-2002) when sunspot activity naturally began to decline. “The drop in magnetic fields could be a normal aspect of the solar cycle and not a sign that sunspots are permanently vanishing.”
...
...
The technique they’re using was pioneered by Livingston at the NASA-supported McMath-Pierce solar telescope near Tucson. He looks at a spectral line emitted by iron atoms in the sun’s atmosphere. Sunspot magnetic fields cause the line to split in two—an effect called “Zeeman splitting” after Dutch physicist Pieter Zeeman who discovered the phenomenon in the 19th century. The size of the split reveals the intensity of the magnetism.


Astronomers have been measuring sunspot magnetic fields in this general way for nearly a century, but Livingston added a twist. While most researchers measure the splitting of spectral lines in the visible part of the sun’s spectrum, Livingston decided to try an infra-red spectral line. Infrared lines are much more sensitive to the Zeeman effect and provide more accurate answers. Also, he dedicated himself to measuring a large number of sunspots—more than 900 between 1998 and 2005 alone. The combination of accuracy and numbers revealed the downturn.

pero yo me pregunto,
si además tenemos que las manchas solares tienen lineas de  flujo magnético dobles, cancelándose: ¿que coño están midiendo Penn & Livingston? 

GLOBAL TWIST OF SUNSPOT MAGNETIC FIELDS OBTAINED FROM HIGH-RESOLUTION VECTOR MAGNETOGRAMS

Sanjiv Kumar Tiwari et al 2009 ApJ 702 L133-L137   doi: 10.1088/0004-637X/702/2/L133  Help


Sanjiv Kumar Tiwari1, P. Venkatakrishnan1 and K. Sankarasubramanian2
1 Udaipur Solar Observatory, Physical Research Laboratory, Dewali, Bari Road, Udaipur-313 001, India
2 Space Astronomy & Instrumentation Division, ISRO Satellite Center, Airport Road, Vimanapura, Bangalore-560017, India
E-mail: [email protected], [email protected] and [email protected]

ABSTRACT. The presence of fine structures in sunspot vector magnetic fields has been confirmed from Hinode as well as other earlier observations. We studied 43 sunspots based on the data sets taken from ASP/DLSP, Hinode (SOT/SP), and SVM (USO). In this Letter, (1) we introduce the concept of signed shear angle (SSA) for sunspots and establish its importance for non-force-free fields. (2) We find that the sign of global α (force-free parameter) is well correlated with that of the global SSA and the photospheric chirality of sunspots. (3) Local α patches of opposite signs are present in the umbra of each sunspot. The amplitude of the spatial variation of local α in the umbra is typically of the order of the global α of the sunspot. (4) We find that the local α is distributed as alternately positive and negative filaments in the penumbra. The amplitude of azimuthal variation of the local α in the penumbra is approximately an order of magnitude larger than that in the umbra. The contributions of the local positive and negative currents and α in the penumbra cancel each other giving almost no contribution for their global values for the whole sunspot. (5) Arc-like structures (partial rings) with a sign opposite to that of the dominant sign of α of the umbral region are seen at the umbral-penumbral boundaries of some sunspots. (6) Most of the sunspots studied belong to the minimum epoch of the 23rd solar cycle and do not follow the so-called hemispheric helicity rule.

GLOBAL TWIST OF SUNSPOT MAGNETIC FIELDS OBTAINED FROM HIGH-RESOLUTION VECTOR MAGNETOGRAMS

¿habrán medido el desplazamiento del vector magnético? 

añado algo más sobre el artículo sobre "el desvanecimiento de las manchas",

Citar

...
The controversy is not about the data. “We know Livingston and Penn are excellent observers,” says Hathaway. “The trend that they have discovered appears to be real.” The part colleagues have trouble believing is the extrapolation. Hathaway notes that most of their data were taken after the maximum of Solar Cycle 23 (2000-2002) when sunspot activity naturally began to decline. “The drop in magnetic fields could be a normal aspect of the solar cycle and not a sign that sunspots are permanently vanishing.”
...
...
The technique they’re using was pioneered by Livingston at the NASA-supported McMath-Pierce solar telescope near Tucson. He looks at a spectral line emitted by iron atoms in the sun’s atmosphere. Sunspot magnetic fields cause the line to split in two—an effect called “Zeeman splitting” after Dutch physicist Pieter Zeeman who discovered the phenomenon in the 19th century. The size of the split reveals the intensity of the magnetism.


Astronomers have been measuring sunspot magnetic fields in this general way for nearly a century, but Livingston added a twist. While most researchers measure the splitting of spectral lines in the visible part of the sun’s spectrum, Livingston decided to try an infra-red spectral line. Infrared lines are much more sensitive to the Zeeman effect and provide more accurate answers. Also, he dedicated himself to measuring a large number of sunspots—more than 900 between 1998 and 2005 alone. The combination of accuracy and numbers revealed the downturn.

pero yo me pregunto,
si además tenemos que las manchas solares tienen lineas de  flujo magnético dobles, cancelándose: ¿que coño están midiendo Penn & Livingston? 

Citar

GLOBAL TWIST OF SUNSPOT MAGNETIC FIELDS OBTAINED FROM HIGH-RESOLUTION VECTOR MAGNETOGRAMS

Sanjiv Kumar Tiwari et al 2009 ApJ 702 L133-L137   doi: 10.1088/0004-637X/702/2/L133  Help


Sanjiv Kumar Tiwari1, P. Venkatakrishnan1 and K. Sankarasubramanian2
1 Udaipur Solar Observatory, Physical Research Laboratory, Dewali, Bari Road, Udaipur-313 001, India
2 Space Astronomy & Instrumentation Division, ISRO Satellite Center, Airport Road, Vimanapura, Bangalore-560017, India
E-mail: [email protected], [email protected] and [email protected]

ABSTRACT. The presence of fine structures in sunspot vector magnetic fields has been confirmed from Hinode as well as other earlier observations. We studied 43 sunspots based on the data sets taken from ASP/DLSP, Hinode (SOT/SP), and SVM (USO). In this Letter, (1) we introduce the concept of signed shear angle (SSA) for sunspots and establish its importance for non-force-free fields. (2) We find that the sign of global α (force-free parameter) is well correlated with that of the global SSA and the photospheric chirality of sunspots. (3) Local α patches of opposite signs are present in the umbra of each sunspot. The amplitude of the spatial variation of local α in the umbra is typically of the order of the global α of the sunspot. (4) We find that the local α is distributed as alternately positive and negative filaments in the penumbra. The amplitude of azimuthal variation of the local α in the penumbra is approximately an order of magnitude larger than that in the umbra. The contributions of the local positive and negative currents and α in the penumbra cancel each other giving almost no contribution for their global values for the whole sunspot. (5) Arc-like structures (partial rings) with a sign opposite to that of the dominant sign of α of the umbral region are seen at the umbral-penumbral boundaries of some sunspots. (6) Most of the sunspots studied belong to the minimum epoch of the 23rd solar cycle and do not follow the so-called hemispheric helicity rule.

GLOBAL TWIST OF SUNSPOT MAGNETIC FIELDS OBTAINED FROM HIGH-RESOLUTION VECTOR MAGNETOGRAMS

¿habrán medido el desplazamiento del vector magnético? 

Hummmm...... ..........me suena.........http://solarcycle24com.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=754&page=30....... , a ver si consigues nuevas respuestas.....

Parece que se comienza a tener en cuenta la actual disminucion de la actividad solar.

Se ha publicado un articulo : SOLAR MINIMUM VS. GLOBAL WARMING

http://www.spaceweather.com/

Tambien se saca a relucir el tema del descenso de la intensidad de los campos magneticos asociaos a las manchas solares entre 1995 y 2009 medida por Livingston and Penn.

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/03sep_sunspots.htm


Saludos.

Video de la evolucion de las 2 ultimas manchas solares 1023 y 1025........  .....

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3hZOeYlNkY0&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fstarviewer%2Ewordpress%2Ecom%2F&feature=player_embedded#t=70

Un video muy interesante Coldhearth 

Disparado PLASMA BLOB: La actividad solar es baja, pero no es cero. Considere lo siguiente: El 5 de septiembre, Jean-Paul Godard de París, Francia, estaba viendo algunas prominencias de onda ligeramente por encima del borde del sol cuando, de repente, una gota de plasma se dispararon a la vista:
"Nunca he visto una expulsión tan rápido como esto antes", dice Godard. "

  


"I've never seen a fast ejection like this before," says Godard. "I recorded the action using a 3-inch refracting telescope and a Coronado SolarMax filter."

The blob does not appear to have escaped the sun. Indeed, it might not have been a blob at all, but rather a plasma wave traveling up a magnetic flux tube--and 'breaking' when it reached the top. Whether it was a rocketing blob or breaking wave, it shows that even the quiet sun is worth watching. Monitoring is encouraged.

more images: from Alan Friedman of Buffalo, New York; from Cai-Uso Wohler of Bispingen, Germany; from Francisco A. Rodriguez of Cabreja Mountain Observatory, Canary Islands; from Jimmy Eubanks of Boiling Springs, South Carolina; from Pavol Rapavy of Observatory Rimavska Sobota, Slovakia;

spaceweather.com/

Otra vez a 0 desde que desapareció la mancha 1025, si es que alguna vez llegó a aparecer. 

SOLAR ACTIVITY: Today, the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) is monitoring an enormous prominence on the sun's southeastern limb. Behold three hours of fiery action:




The prominence has been growing for more than a day. As it towers higher and higher above the surface of the sun, the odds increase that it will erupt and come crashing down--a must-see.
spaceweather.com/

Ultima Imagen del Satelite soho


Ampliada

Parece que tenemos grupo de manchas...en la cara oculta del Sol.





http://www.spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=16&month=09&year=2009

Para el 20 de septiembre parece que la veremos.