El último boletín de discusión:
remarks:
290300z position near 13.7n 85.3e.
Tropical cyclone (tc) 01b (nargis), located approximately 565 nm
south-southwest of Calcutta, India, has tracked northward at
04 knots over the past 6 hours.
A 290059z SSMI microwave image
depicts a banding microwave eye and provides high confidence in the
current position of the storm.
The initial intensity is based on
satellite intensity estimates ranging from 75 to 90 knots. The
upper
level environment remains favorable with strong radial outflow and
low vertical wind shear. The upper level environment and the high
ocean heat content in the Bay of Bengal will aid in the steady
intensification of the storm through tau 48. Minor weakening is
forecast by tau 72, due to slightly lower ocean heat content along
the track. The forward track speed of tc 01b has increased over
the past 12 hours, but remains slow as the system continues to
remain in a relatively weak steering environment. The system is
expected to be steered increasingly more by the subtropical ridge
that is located to the east of the storm. After tau 12, tc 01b will
track along the western periphery of the mid-level subtropical ridge
to the east and the track speed will continue to slowly increase.
The forecast reasoning has not significantly changed from the
previous forecast. The track remains near the consensus of the
available dynamic aids, which remain in fair agreement. Maximum
significant wave height at 290000z is 24 feet. Next warnings at
290900z, 291500z, 292100z and 300300z.//
//
Según estos datos, junto con los que ofrece la técnica DVORAK:
29/0230 UTC 13.5N 85.3E T4.0/4.5 NARGIS -- Bay of Bengal 28/2030 UTC 13.3N 85.3E T4.5/4.5 NARGIS -- Bay of Bengal
28/1430 UTC 13.2N 85.2E T4.5/4.5 NARGIS -- Bay of Bengal
Lleva a pensar, tal como recoge Wundergroun, que NARGIS ya ha alcanzado la categoría 2 en la escala de Saffir Simpson, y que se haya debilitado ligeramente después. Personalmente pienso que esa categoría 2 es excesiva y como mucho, que haya alcanzado los 75 - 80 KT y no los 90 que son necesarios para un categoría 2.
00 GMT 04/28/08 12.8N 85.5E 65 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 04/28/08 13.3N 85.5E 75 Category 1
12 GMT 04/28/08 12.9N 85.3E 75 Category 1
18 GMT 04/28/08 13.2N 85.3E 85 Category 1
00 GMT 04/29/08 13.6N 85.2E 100 Category 2
En la última imagen en microondas disponible, no se ve un ojo demasiado bien estructurado... y el dato actual de intensidad es 85 KT según el NRL, que me parece excesivo para un ciclón sin ojo en la imagen visible.
PD.: Torre, recibido