Este seguimiento será flipante....
aun me estoy frotando los ojos al ver las previsiones.
Os añado, lo que dice estofex
... NW/N-Spain and SW/central France [18Z-06Z and onwards] ...
The strong cold front will be the first focus for deep convection, which reaches NW-Spain around 18Z and continues its rapid eastward propagation thereafter. A concern is the fact that trajectories now pass over the Iberian Peninsula, so prefrontal warm sector loses its favorable connection to the high theta-e plume. Nevertheless, a strong cold front reaches SW/W-France at midnight as mid-level lapse rates steepen somewhat (6-7K/km). A forced line of showers/thunderstorms will likely accompany this cold front and this line will move well inland. Better BL moisture around Toulouse should ensure the line to keep its strength over SW-France, while a light weakening trend may occur further to the north. Instability release is on the low-end side, but intense forcing and rapidly strengthening shear point to a widespread severe-damaging wind gust/isolated large hail event. Thunderstorms along the cold front, rooting into the surface layer should be able to ingest SRH-1 values in excess of 400m^2/s^2. This combined with LCLs below 600m and some 0-3km CAPE release augments the tornado risk and a strong tornado is certainly possible, if persistent and surface based convection evolves. Thunderstorm activity will also increase over S/SE-France during the early morning hours, as cold front pushes eastwards. Severe wind gusts and isolated tornadoes are possible in this environment.
Of even bigger concern is the back-bent occlusion, which is forecast to cross the extreme SE Bay of Biscay and SW-France between 03Z and 06Z. It is still too far out to speculate about such more small-scale features, but this possible solution has to be kept in mind. A line of showers/thunderstorms could accompany the passage of this occlusion as mid-levels cool down rapidly. The main risk with this convection would be extreme wind gusts as winds at 850hPa reach 50m/s and forecast soundings support the mix down of such high values to the surface. Directional shear would be also conducive for tornadic activity. Later model runs have to be evaluated before sticking to this possibility. The level-2 was mainly issued as wind gusts along the cold front, associated with deep and/or electrified convection, will likely exceed 33m/s. The potential strong tornado risk, although still somewhat uncertain, also flows in this level-2.
The final area for enhanced thunderstorm chances will be just below the depression's center, which comes ashore somewhere around Nantes at 00Z onwards. The speed shear is much weaker, but directional shear remains high, so isolated tornadoes are possible with thunderstorms, evolving in this environment. Marginal hail and strong gusts are also forecast and hence the level-1 area was expanded well inland to reflect this risk.
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