De hecho, Estofex tiene a la mayor parte de Francia en nivel 1.
Si, aunque hoy no se han mojado con las supercélulas:
DISCUSSION
... south-central France, NW Switzerland and SW Germany ...
Ahead of an approaching upper low/trough/frontal system, strong WAA pushes the warm front across France during the day. Behind the front, quite rapid moisture recovery with upper 10s surface dewpoints overspreads France as well as south-western Germany. Moderately strong instability release with MLCAPEs reaching near 1500 J/kg is quite likely. Over central France, GFS pushes the values even higher, while ECMWF stays slightly above 1000 J/kg. It seems that storms initation will begin in early to mid afternoon hours when strong surface heating weakens the capping inversion across the warm sector. With forming weak surface low and increasing southerly flow, a few near-surface convergence zones can be seen besides the main cold/warm frontal boundaries, which will trigger the convection. Only marginal mid-level jet streak will be present across France/S Germany until late afternoon when deep-layer shear gradually increases up to 15m/s. Despite rather limited shear, organized storms can be still expected with the main threat for large hail given the quite high instability release. Rather slow moving storms could enhance the flash flood threat as well.
Later towards the evening, models are confidently simulating convective rainfall threat mostly along the stationary warm front from eastern France into NW Switzerland and SW Germany. One or two large convective clusters are quite probable in the evening hours trailing ENE-wards overnight due to the increased LLJ ahead of the surface low over east-central France. Therefore, excessive convective rainfall threat could lead into local flash floods.
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