Huracán CELIA Categoría 5 (04E SW México)

Vamos que CELIA ha nacido...


000
WTPZ44 KNHC 191439
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010
800 AM PDT SAT JUN 19 2010

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE DEPRESSION
HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. A
19/1145Z SSMI OVERPASS REVEALED A SIMILAR LOW- AND MID-LEVEL
EYE-LIKE FEATURE NOTED IN AN EARLIER AMSR-E OVERPASS...AND SHIP
WKDY LOCATED ABOUT 40 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER AT 12Z REPORTED A
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND OF 24 KT AND A PRESSURE OF 1007.5 MB...WHICH
SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR OR BELOW 1005 MB.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 12Z FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T1.5
AND T2.0...RESPECTIVELY...BUT SINCE THEN CONVECTION HAS WRAPPED
MORE THAN HALF WAY AROUND THE CENTER YIELDING A DATA T-NUMBER OF
T2.5/35 KT. BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION...THE DEPRESSION HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM CELIA.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 245/04 BASED ON MICROWAVE SATELLITE
POSITION ESTIMATES OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE PREVIOUS TREND OF
CELIA MOVING IN A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO...AND THEN TURNING WESTWARD...IS MAINTAINED BY ALL OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE AS A BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR
TO BUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE CONSENSUS
MODEL...TVCN. DUE TO CELIA'S WESTWARD TRACK AWAY FROM MEXICO...
COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

AS A RESULT OF THE IMPRESSIVE VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF CELIA NOTED IN
MICROWAVE IMAGERY...STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS UNTIL DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE DRY SLOT IN THE
EASTERN QUADRANT...WITH A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION FORECAST
AFTER THAT BASED ON THE LOW VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS OF LESS THAN
5 KT FORECAST BY THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL. BY 72 HOURS...
SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 20-25 KT IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CELIA...WHICH MAY HALT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER NEAR-30C SSTS...
LITTLE OR NO WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      19/1500Z 12.5N  97.1W    35 KT
 12HR VT     20/0000Z 12.4N  98.3W    40 KT
 24HR VT     20/1200Z 12.3N  99.7W    55 KT
 36HR VT     21/0000Z 12.3N 101.1W    70 KT
 48HR VT     21/1200Z 12.3N 102.3W    75 KT
 72HR VT     22/1200Z 12.3N 104.3W    75 KT
 96HR VT     23/1200Z 12.5N 106.5W    70 KT
120HR VT     24/1200Z 13.0N 109.0W    70 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BRENNAN

Que eso no es eye-like-feature hombre...

Si además la microondas de Parungo (siendo más actual) es peor que la de AMSRE



Bah, yo al NHC a veces no lo entiendo. Tarda horrores para decir unas cosas, y sin embargo para otras, corre como alma que lleva el diablo. Porque no entiendo que hablen de eye-like-feature, y ni siquiera tenga nombre  

Puf...menudas previsiones...
AS A RESULT OF THE IMPRESSIVE VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF CELIA NOTED IN
MICROWAVE IMAGERY...STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS UNTIL DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE DRY SLOT IN THE
EASTERN QUADRANT...WITH A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION FORECAST
AFTER THAT BASED ON THE LOW VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS OF LESS THAN
5 KT FORECAST BY THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL. BY 72 HOURS...
SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 20-25 KT IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CELIA...WHICH MAY HALT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER NEAR-30C SSTS...
LITTLE OR NO WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

si lo dice el NHC....

Dejo infrared:


 
edito:Torre, yo solo cité la previsión, es más, me ''pisaste'' el mensaje...

 

ZAS EN TODA LA BOCA!

Voy a tener que ponerme serio con estos americanos  

Ese multisensor me suena...  


Es que sigue y sigue wrapping the center; el visible es espectacular, envolviendo en centro:

Qué bien que tengamos a Celia ya! 

Un par de imágenes más, más lejos...



Más cerca...( al Oeste, Noroeste, Blas)



Según los mapas de intensidad, para mañana a últimas horas le dan 70kt-75kt igual se quedan cortos.

 

¿Alguien se sube al carro del Major?...
Lejos no va a andar...





 

Pepe, esa imágen del visible, ¿no está algo atrasada?

Condiciones de humedad favorables, esto va a esplotar mañana...

Celia que se intensifica

EP, 04, 2010061918,   , BEST,   0, 124N,  976W,  40, 1002, TS,  34, NEQ

Así es Kike.
A ver que nos dice el NHC en el próximo parte, que debe de estar al caer.



 

Pues si pepe el CNH actualiza otorgándole esos 40 KT a CELIA y segun ellos se intensificará rápidamente

GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR AND CURRENT TRENDS...RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WITH A
LEVELING OFF BETWEEN 24-72 HOURS AS EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AGAIN...
WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.

INITIAL      19/2100Z 12.4N  98.0W    40 KT
 12HR VT     20/0600Z 12.3N  99.0W    55 KT
 24HR VT     20/1800Z 12.2N 100.4W    70 KT
 36HR VT     21/0600Z 12.2N 101.7W    75 KT
 48HR VT     21/1800Z 12.2N 103.0W    75 KT
 72HR VT     22/1800Z 12.3N 105.3W    75 KT
 96HR VT     23/1800Z 12.5N 107.5W    80 KT
120HR VT     24/1800Z 13.0N 110.5W    90 KT