Si se está viendo afectada por cizalladura (E-NE), porque el outflow se expande por la parte externa de la circulación. Además, el eyewall flojea por esa zona

SHIPS la situa en 10-15kt. CIMSS en 20-30kt al SW del centro

A ver que dice el NHC

No si mi comentario era ironía, venia a decir que me parecía impresionante su estructura a pesar de la cizalladura.

NHC actualiza el aviso Nº 10, que mantiene a Celia con 70kT

THE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED EYE FEATURE THAT HAS NOT BEEN EVIDENT IN CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY.
IT SEEMS THAT LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE
FOR HALTING THE INTENSIFICATION SEEN YESTERDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS
PREDICT DECREASING UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES DURING THE COUPLE OF
DAYS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY SHOWS LESS INTENSIFICATION THAN
BEFORE. THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS STRENGTHEN THE HURRICANE TO
AROUND 85 KT IN A FEW DAYS...WHILE THE HWRF AND LGEM SHOW A PEAK
ABOUT 10 KT LOWER. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...CELIA SHOULD REACH COOLER WATERS WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE
THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      21/1500Z 11.8N 102.4W    70 KT
12HR VT     22/0000Z 11.7N 103.5W    75 KT
24HR VT     22/1200Z 11.7N 104.9W    80 KT
36HR VT     23/0000Z 11.8N 106.5W    85 KT
48HR VT     23/1200Z 12.1N 108.4W    90 KT
72HR VT     24/1200Z 13.0N 112.0W    95 KT
96HR VT     25/1200Z 14.5N 116.0W    90 KT
120HR VT     26/1200Z 16.0N 120.0W    70 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



pues eso, previsiones algo más conservadoras

CELIA aumenta 5 KT y disminuye su presión

EP, 04, 2010062118,   , BEST,   0, 116N, 1029W,   75,  979, HU,

Ahora si que si. CELIA crece

jojojo, 80 kt

A HINT OF AN EYE HAS
BEEN SEEN IN RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY...BUT HAS NOT BECOME APPARENT
IN INFRARED IMAGERY.
THE OUTFLOW REMAINS SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE
OF THE HURRICANE...INDICATING A CONTINUATION OF MODERATE EASTERLY
SHEAR. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO PREDICT THAT THE SHEAR WILL
DECREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/2100Z 11.6N 103.3W 80 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 11.5N 104.4W 85 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 11.5N 105.8W 90 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 11.5N 107.5W 95 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 11.8N 109.5W 95 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 12.9N 113.4W 95 KT
96HR VT 25/1800Z 14.5N 117.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 26/1800Z 16.5N 121.5W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

siguen sin llegar a 100kt los pronósticos...



Vaya hombre, por 30 segundos...

Lo comentado sobre el outflow, respecto a la cizalladura, la cual según el parte, caerá en una dia o asi, lo que dará mejores condiciones para que CELIA crezca. Oficialmente ya no apuesta por categoría major... Sin embargo, yo si creo que lo conseguirá, y antes de tiempo

Torre, por favor, la ultima vez que borras tu mensaje cuando lo publicas antes que yo...



Uff....pues si que se la está jugando el NHC con ese pronóstico tan conservador si, y más viendo que se ha adelantado 18 horas la llegada a los 80 kt. A ver si logra alcanzar la Cat.3, tampoco queda tan lejos.

CELIA se fortalece a HURACÁN CAT. 2

EP, 04, 2010062200,   , BEST,   0, 117N, 1036W,   90,  970, HU,  64, NEQ

El nuevo aviso del CNH le otorga esa intensidad

THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR WILL FURTHER DECREASE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...ALLOWING FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION

Han aumentado algo las previsiones respecto al aviso pasado

INITIAL      22/0300Z 11.7N 103.9W    90 KT
12HR VT     22/1200Z 11.8N 105.1W    95 KT
24HR VT     23/0000Z 11.9N 106.6W   100 KT
36HR VT     23/1200Z 12.0N 108.5W   105 KT

48HR VT     24/0000Z 12.3N 110.6W   100 KT
72HR VT     25/0000Z 13.3N 114.5W    95 KT
96HR VT     26/0000Z 14.9N 118.5W    85 KT
120HR VT     27/0000Z 16.7N 122.0W    65 KT

CELIA sigue viéndose afectada por cizalladura de E. Se intensifica, pero no con tanta fuerza como podría hacerlo. Nuevamente el outflow se ve afectado en la parte externa de la circulación. No se yo ese eyewall...  

no se ve del todo bien...

Sale el aviso Nº 13, que mantiene a Celia con 90kt.

CELIA IS EXHIBITING A RATHER CIRCULAR-LOOKING COLD-TOPPED CDO
FEATURE WITH MINIMAL BANDING EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGES AT THIS
TIME.  AN EYE HAS NOT BEEN EVIDENT ON GEOSTATIONARY IMAGES BUT AN
EARLIER SSM/I OVERPASS OF THE HURRICANE...FROM JUST AFTER 0000
UTC...DID SHOW A SMALL EYE.

THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS ASYMMETRIC AND IS
OCCURRING PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM.  THE
SHIPS MODEL...WHICH DIAGNOSES VERTICAL SHEAR FROM THE GFS FORECAST
OUTPUT...INDICATES THAT THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER CELIA
SHOULD WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 10 KT WITHIN 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST PREDICTS STRENGTHENING INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE AND IS NOT
TOO DIFFERENT FROM THE SHIPS/LGEM FORECAST ALTHOUGH THE LATTER
MODEL DELAYS THE STRENGTHENING TO LATER IN THE PERIOD.  SINCE THE
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH RATHER SOON...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
INTENSIFIES CELIA A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED
STATISTICALLY-BASED INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  BY DAYS 4-5...SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES UNDER CELIA ARE LIKELY TO COOL SIGNIFICANTLY SO THE
NHC FORECAST SHOWS WEAKENING TO BELOW HURRICANE STATUS BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      22/0900Z 11.8N 104.7W    90 KT
12HR VT     22/1800Z 11.9N 105.9W   100 KT
24HR VT     23/0600Z 12.1N 107.6W   105 KT
36HR VT     23/1800Z 12.3N 109.6W   105 KT
48HR VT     24/0600Z 12.6N 111.8W   100 KT
72HR VT     25/0600Z 13.7N 116.0W    90 KT
96HR VT     26/0600Z 15.0N 120.0W    80 KT
120HR VT     27/0600Z 16.5N 123.0W    60 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

parece que toma mejor aspecto.