Discusión nº 18, NHC.

Mejor aspecto y buenas condiciones para fortalecerse de nuevo.


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HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010
800 AM PDT WED JUN 23 2010

WHILE MICROWAVE IMAGES OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAD DEPICTED THE
EYE OF CELIA...IT IS NOW FINALLY VISIBLE IN GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE EYE WAS FIRST SEEN ON SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGES AROUND
0700 UTC...THOUGH IT WAS QUITE RAGGED...AND SINCE THEN HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER DEFINED. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO
T5.0/90 KT AND T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. BASED
ON THESE DVORAK ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO
85 KT. IN ADDITION...RECENT SSMI AND SSMIS IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE
EYE OF CELIA IS MORE VERTICALLY ALIGNED THIS MORNING.

CELIA HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DECREASING TO 5 KT
OR LESS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND REMAINING THAT WAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE ALL OF THE INTENSITY SHOWS SOME
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...NONE OF THE MODELS
MAKE CELIA A MAJOR HURRICANE. AFTER 48 HOURS...CELIA WILL TRACK
OVER STEADILY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THAT SHOULD
CAUSE WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NUDGED UPWARD
AND IS AT THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE LGEM MODEL.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/10. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE WEAKENING OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF
CELIA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  THIS
SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW CELIA TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.   

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      23/1500Z 12.2N 109.2W    85 KT
12HR VT     24/0000Z 12.5N 111.0W    90 KT
24HR VT     24/1200Z 12.9N 113.4W    95 KT
36HR VT     25/0000Z 13.5N 115.7W    95 KT
48HR VT     25/1200Z 14.2N 117.9W    90 KT
72HR VT     26/1200Z 15.5N 122.0W    70 KT
96HR VT     27/1200Z 16.0N 124.5W    55 KT
120HR VT     28/1200Z 16.5N 126.5W    40 KT

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART

NNNN

Bonito ojo

Ya es un categoría 2 

Y aparte de un bonito ojo, las imágenes cada vez son más bonitas, prueba de ello, es esta otra...



La presión estimada según la técnica Devorak, le da casi 110kt, y menos de 937mb, a modo orientativo, no es oficial.

Que maja CELIA. Por fin sube a Huracán Cat. 3

EP, 04, 2010062318,   , BEST,   0, 122N, 1098W, 100,  963, HU,  64, NEQ

Pues bueno ya tenemos el primer major de la temperada en el Pacifico.

Por cierto, que rapido sea a  intensificado en el dia de hoy  .

Ahí está!





A ver que nos dicen en el parte.

Qué preciosidad, no me lo esperaba... 

Sale el parte, que otorga a Celia 100 kt

CELIA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH
THE EYE NOW MORE SYMMETRIC AND WARMER THAN EARLIER AND THE OVERALL
CLOUD PATTERN IMPROVED.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB
HAVE INCREASED TO 5.5/102 KT AND THE ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS
ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 100 KT...A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE.
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION OF CELIA IS STILL POSSIBLE WHILE IT IS
OVER WARM WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS
THE CYCLONE REMAINING IN A VERY LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE ONLY SHOWS A LITTLE STRENGTHENING
DURING THIS TIME.  BEYOND 24 TO 36 HOURS...CELIA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER STEADILY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE WEAKENING. THE NEW NHC OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ONCE
AGAIN NUDGED UPWARD...DUE TO THE INITIAL HIGHER INTENSITY...AND
REMAINS NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE...IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      23/2100Z 12.3N 110.4W   100 KT
12HR VT     24/0600Z 12.6N 112.3W   110 KT
24HR VT     24/1800Z 13.1N 114.6W   115 KT
36HR VT     25/0600Z 13.8N 117.0W   110 KT
48HR VT     25/1800Z 14.5N 119.2W   100 KT
72HR VT     26/1800Z 15.5N 123.0W    70 KT
96HR VT     27/1800Z 16.0N 125.5W    55 KT
120HR VT     28/1800Z 16.5N 127.0W    40 KT

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART

NNNN

Y la Cat.4.....
Pues en el pronóstico si que se la dan, no? son 114 kt...si no me equivoco





pd:perdodad, que puse aqui a Darby, y allí a Celia...

Imagen preciosa de Celia y Darby



Aunque cuidado por que su ojo empieza a fluctuar, no creo que sea un EWRC, es demasidado pronto...supongo que será cosa del visible, es que las imágenes de 85GHz no han actualizado aún...y en el IR se ve prácticamente lo mismo...
Puede que sea la cizalladura, aunque en teoría no debería afectarle ahora.


Buenas noches( o días... )

CELIA pierde fuelle, y baja nuevamente a Cat. 2, con una fuerza estimada en el último parte del NHC de 90kt

Aunque el núcleo parece sólido, el propio NHC no se fia mucho de él. Apuestan por una nueva intensificación, aunque personalmente, no las tengo todas conmigo, sobretodo ante las dudas de la agencia americana



THE RECENT INTENSITY TRENDS ARE PUZZLING...AND IT IS NOT CLEAR WHAT
HAS LED TO THE CURRENT DISORGANIZED STATE. SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT CELIA REMAINS IN A VERY LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER
HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD FAVOR MAINTENANCE OF ITS
CURRENT INTENSITY OR PERHAPS SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IN THE
SHORT-TERM

CELIA roza de nuevo la Categoría 3, con 95 nudos asignados por el NHC en su último parte (nº 21).

- NHC:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      24/0900Z 12.6N 112.8W    95 KT
12HR VT     24/1800Z 13.0N 114.6W   100 KT
24HR VT     25/0600Z 13.7N 117.0W   100 KT
36HR VT     25/1800Z 14.4N 119.1W    95 KT
48HR VT     26/0600Z 15.1N 120.9W    85 KT
72HR VT     27/0600Z 16.2N 123.9W    60 KT
96HR VT     28/0600Z 16.5N 125.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     29/0600Z 16.5N 126.5W    35 KT

- ATCF:

EP, 04, 2010062406,   , BEST,   0, 124N, 1122W,  95,  967, HU