Más rápido que un rayo Kike...

CELIA'S APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE
TODAY AS SEVERAL CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE FORMED AND WRAPPED
AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS
ALSO IMPROVED IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT TO THE EAST

CELIA IS SHOWING SIGNS OF POTENTIAL RAPID INTENSIFICATION BASED ON
THE INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE BANDING AND THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF A
SMALL CDO FEATURE. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL SHARPLY INCREASES THE
VERTICAL SHEAR TO 20-25 KT THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THIS APPEARS TO
BE DUE IN PART TO THE GFS MODEL'S POOR 12Z INITIALIZATION. THE
OTHER MODELS ONLY INDICATE 10-15 KT 200-MB WINDS ALONG CELIA'S
FORECAST TRACK AND THE LATEST UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS SHOWS 5 KT OR
LESS OF VERTICAL SHEAR...COMPARED TO THE SHIPS-GFS ANALYSIS OF
10-15 KT.  GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR AND CURRENT TRENDS...RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WITH A
LEVELING OFF BETWEEN 24-72 HOURS AS EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...[b]THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AGAIN...
WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.[/b]



La pinta es estupenda, sin duda.

Here you have:






¡¡NO COMMENT!!

CELIA es sorprendente con el aspecto muy bueno que presenta actualmente

"Eso" ya no es un "amago de OJO". Se me antoja muy poco esos 40 kt.
No subo la última imagen en Visible, porque ya lo ha hecho Kike.
Saludos.

Pues según ADT 43 nudos a la 1:45 hora de aqui...

Es un sistema de pequeñas proporciones,tiene mucho potencial para desarrollarse.

No cierra ese ''eye like feature'', démosle tiempo...

Sigue intensificándose



ATCF.-
EP, 04, 2010062000,   , BEST,   0, 122N,  983W,  50,  997, TS,  50, NEQ,

Soy tonto, estaba esperando el parte pero es horario +8UTC

Claro, el atlántico es +5UTC....de ahí la confusión.

me voy a sobar...manda cojones...

A ver si ''arregla'' su centro...

El NHC actualiza y otorga a celia 55 KT-994 MB


CELIA HAS CONTINUED TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...WITH THE
OCCASIONAL GLIMPSE OF AN EYE TRYING TO FORM INSIDE A WELL-DEFINED
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...WHILE
AMSU-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65-70 KT.  THE ATTEMPTS AT EYE
FORMATION SUGGEST AN INTENSITY NEAR THE HIGHER END OF THESE
ESTIMATES...ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS NOT YET PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY CALLING CELIA A HURRICANE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 55 KT...AND THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      20/0300Z 12.1N  98.7W    55 KT
12HR VT     20/1200Z 11.9N  99.8W    65 KT
24HR VT     21/0000Z 11.8N 101.0W    75 KT
36HR VT     21/1200Z 11.7N 102.2W    80 KT
48HR VT     22/0000Z 11.7N 103.2W    80 KT
72HR VT     23/0000Z 12.0N 105.5W    85 KT
96HR VT     24/0000Z 12.5N 108.5W    90 KT
120HR VT     25/0000Z 13.5N 112.0W    95 KT



Todo parece indicar que CELIA será el primer huracán mayor de la temporada 

 





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Celia alcanza los 55kT

ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CELIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE
IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE MASS HAS CONSOLIDATED FURTHER...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
HAVE NOT COOLED. UPPER-LEVEL APPEARS WELL-ESTABLISHED OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT IS RESTRICTED TO THE EAST

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      20/0900Z 12.0N  99.4W    55 KT
12HR VT     20/1800Z 11.8N 100.4W    65 KT
24HR VT     21/0600Z 11.7N 101.7W    75 KT
36HR VT     21/1800Z 11.8N 102.8W    80 KT
48HR VT     22/0600Z 11.8N 104.0W    85 KT
72HR VT     23/0600Z 12.0N 106.7W    95 KT
96HR VT     24/0600Z 13.0N 110.0W   100 KT
120HR VT     25/0600Z 14.0N 113.5W   100 KT

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

Análisis de vientos de Celia de hoy a primeras horas:

Análisis

Una imágen:



Mapa contenido OHC: (Previsto)



Tiene todo a su favor por delante, para seguir intensificándose...

A ver si salen los infrarrojos, por que los satélites actualizados cubren apenas el 40% y no llegan al centro...

Para mí que ahí se está gestando algo...