Así es.

Según el NHC 55 kt

CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE MARKEDLY AND A BANDING EYE HAS OCCASIONALLY BEEN EVIDENT IN BOTH VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS ALSO BEEN IMPROVING...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO
55 KT BASED ON AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5/55 KT FROM SAB.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/10. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. THE FUTURE TRACK OF DARBY CONTINUES TO WEIGH HEAVILY UPON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. ------] THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS...
ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE CARIBBEAN SEA
DISTURBANCE TO VARIOUS DEGREES OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND MOVE THAT
SYSTEM INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS RESULTS IN WEAKENING
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DARBY BY 96-120 HOURS AND
CAUSES A DECREASE IN THE STEERING FLOW. BOTH THE GFS AND
GFS-PARALLEL RUNS TAKE A RATHER ANEMIC LOOKING DARBY QUICKLY
WESTWARD...WHICH ONCE AGAIN APPEARS TO BE DUE TO POOR MODEL
INITIALIZATION. AS A RESULT...LESS WEIGHT HAS BEEN PLACED ON THOSE
MODELS...WITH MORE WEIGHT BEING PLACED ON THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...
UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS.

DARBY APPEARS TO ALREADY BE ABOUT 12 HOURS INTO A RAPID
INTENSIFICATION PHASE. THIS TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR
ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO WITH SLOWER DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT. A
23/1606Z TRMM OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE EARLIER OBSERVED SLIGHT
WESTWARD TILT OF THE INNER CORE VORTEX COLUMN HAD DIMINISHED...
WHICH WOULD INDICATE THAT DARBY HAS BETTER VERTICAL STRUCTURE THAT
IS CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS
LESS THAN 5 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH 48 HOURS...WHICH WOULD
ALSO SUPPORT CONTINUED STRENGTHENING...AND IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE
THAT DARBY COULD BE A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THAT TIME. BY 96 HOURS...
THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE...BUT MUCH LESS NOW THAN
PREVIOUS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM
INTENSITY MODELS.[/i]


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      23/2100Z 12.0N  96.1W    55 KT
12HR VT     24/0600Z 12.3N  97.2W    70 KT
24HR VT     24/1800Z 12.7N  98.8W    80 KT
36HR VT     25/0600Z 13.0N 100.0W    85 KT
48HR VT     25/1800Z 13.4N 101.0W    90 KT
72HR VT     26/1800Z 14.0N 102.0W    90 KT
96HR VT     27/1800Z 14.5N 102.1W    90 KT
120HR VT     28/1800Z 15.0N 102.1W    75 KT

$$
FORECASTER  TORRE (no, es Stewart)

TOMA YA!

Trayectoria



carta de Chances...

buaaa, que preciosidad de bichito....



Probablemente mañana alcanze el rango de Huracán.

Imagen preciosa de Celia y Darby



Y la cizalladura que sigue fastidiándole, a ver como amanece mañana...


Buenas noches.

Primer castañazo de DARBY. Y según el NHC, no parece que haya sido por la cizalladura

WHY THIS IS OCCURRING IS NOT
OBVIOUS...AS THERE ARE NO ANALYSES THAT SHOW SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AFFECTING THE STORM

Aviso nº 6 del NHC, rozando la Categoría de Huracán, 60 nudos.

- NHC:

ACCORDING TO A 0156 UTC TRMM PASS...A PINHOLE EYE FEATURE APPEARED
TO HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
OVER DARBY.  THIS TINY FEATURE HAS NOT BEEN EVIDENT IN INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB
REMAIN AT T3.5...55 KT.  HOWEVER...THE SAB CLASSIFICATION DID YIELD
A DATA T-NUMBER OF 4.5...77 KT...USING THE EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN.
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE ORDINARY FOR SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONES TO BE
STRONGER THAN THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE WILL ALLOW...AND IT IS ASSUMED
THAT DARBY MAY HAVE STRENGTHENED A LITTLE.  MORE RECENTLY...THE
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT RAGGED...BUT A CURVED
BAND HAS DEVELOPED AND IS NOW CONNECTED TO THE CENTRAL CONVECTION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      24/0900Z 12.6N  98.0W    60 KT
12HR VT     24/1800Z 12.9N  99.2W    65 KT
24HR VT     25/0600Z 13.2N 100.6W    70 KT
36HR VT     25/1800Z 13.4N 101.7W    80 KT
48HR VT     26/0600Z 13.6N 102.6W    80 KT
72HR VT     27/0600Z 14.0N 103.5W    70 KT
96HR VT     28/0600Z 14.5N 103.5W    65 KT
120HR VT     29/0600Z 15.0N 103.0W    55 KT

Cita de: Torre en Jueves 24 Junio 2010 07:22:59 AM
WHY THIS IS OCCURRING IS NOT
OBVIOUS...AS THERE ARE NO ANALYSES THAT SHOW SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AFFECTING THE STORM

Vaya...de todas formas en el satélite se observa bastante desorganización con 2 bandas de convección.



De todas formas esto resulta intrigante...
A PINHOLE EYE FEATURE APPEARED
TO HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
OVER DARBY.  THIS TINY FEATURE HAS NOT BEEN EVIDENT IN INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY

EP, 05, 2010062412, , BEST, 0, 127N, 983W, 65, 990, HU

La mejora es palpable.

En la discursión sobre el Sistema, se comenta de que dispone de unas 72 horas de ambiente favorable. Luego su movimiento se ralentizará y aumentará la cizalladura sobre el ESE de la zona, pero esto puede ser compensado por las temperaturas tan cálidas que tiene el agua del mar sobre la zona y que permanecerán casi inalterables, por lo menos durante los próximos 5 dias. Comentan que el sistema puede interaccionar con lo que se está formando en estos momentos en el Caribe Occidental, tal como predijo Torre. Y ésto es lo que de momento, mantiene en vilo a los predictores del NHC, que no saben ó no se imaginan de qué forma lo va a hacer
Una imagen del visible actual:

Pues sí ha mejorado respecto a las imágenes de esta mañana. El JTWC le otorga unos vientos de 120 km/h con rachas que rozan los 150 km/h y una previsión de alcanzar los 185 km/h así pues estaríamos ante un 2-3. Otros centros no lo fortalecen tanto. No obstante parece que puede girar cola y afectar el estado de Guerrero (Acapulco).....ya veremos.


La verdad es que la imagen es muy bonita.....

DARBY se encuentra más o menos atrapado, entre la circulación de CELIA, y el flujo de vientos procedentes de Centroamérica



Tiene buen aspecto ahora, y puede seguir creciendo, pero está condenado a largo plazo. Si alcanza más de 80kt, será en estas próximas horas, no veo más allá su desarrollo, porque será cuando la 93L tome cartas en el asunto

DARBY coge aire

EP, 05, 2010062418,   , BEST,   0, 128N,  990W,  70,  980, HU,  64, NEQ