Manchas solares/Sunspots: Seguimiento del Ciclo Solar (Links en primer post)

La mancha 2002 (la más centrada) sigue creciendo y ha alcanzado configuración BGD, capaz de producir llamaradas clase X...



 


Hoy SSN=152 (provisional).

La mancha 2002 (la más centrada) sigue creciendo y ha alcanzado configuración BGD, capaz de producir llamaradas clase X...



 


Hoy SSN=152 (provisional).

Pues casi, una M de nivel 9. Y además geoefectiva. Veremos en un par de días que es lo que trae consigo.

Ha sido la 1996, a punto de irse al limbo:



 

Hoy SSN=138 (provisional).

Así, de geoefectiva nada de nada. Sorry. Me emocioné.

SSN: 125

 

La Tierra esquivó un balazo solar fatal en julio de 2012

Investigadores aseguran que si el Sol hubiera lanzado la nube de plasma tan solo nueve días antes, nuestra civilización dependiente de la tecnología habría recibido un impacto tremendo del que no nos recuperaríamos en años

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SSN=137 (ayer), 177 (provisional, hoy).

 

No he tenido que abrir el enlace para saber en qué diario estaba. 

No he tenido que abrir el enlace para saber en qué diario estaba. 

SpaceWeather también lo ha publicado...

SOLAR 'SUPERSTORM' NARROWLY MISSES EARTH: The heliophysics communitty is buzzing today in response to an article in Nature Communications, which describes an intense solar storm that narrowly missed Earth almost two years ago. On July 23, 2012, a CME rocketed away from the sun at 2000 km/s, almost four times faster than a typical eruption. The storm tore through Earth orbit, but fortunately Earth wasn't there. Instead it hit the STEREO-A spacecraft, which experienced the most intense solar proton storm since 1976. Researchers have been analyzing the data ever since, and they have concluded that the storm was akin to the Carrington Event of 1859. Scroll past this movie of the CME to learn more:



"Had it hit Earth, it probably would have been like the big one in 1859," says Janet Luhmann of UC Berkeley, a co-author of the paper. "The effect today [on] our modern technologies would have been tremendous."

The Carrington Event was a series of powerful CMEs that hit Earth head-on, sparking Northern Lights as far south as Tahiti. Intense geomagnetic storms caused global telegraph lines to spark, setting fire to some telegraph offices and disabling the 'Victorian Internet." A similar storm today would have a catastrophic effect on modern power grids and telecommunication networks. According to a study by the National Academy of Sciences, the total economic impact could exceed $2 trillion or 20 times greater than the costs of a Hurricane Katrina. Multi-ton transformers fried by such a storm could take years to repair.

The paper in Nature Communications describes what gave the July 2012 storm Carrington-like potency. For one thing, the CME was actually two CMEs separated by only 10 to 15 minutes. Plus the CMEs traveled through a region of space that had been cleared out by another CME four days earlier. As a result, they were not decelerated as much as usual by their transit through the interplanetary medium.

The storm clouds crossed Earth's orbit in a place where Earth itself would be about 1 week later, so it was a relatively narrow escape. The whole episode highlights the perils of space weather. Many observers have noted that the current solar cycle is weak, perhaps the weakest in 100 years. Now we see that even a weak solar cycle can produce a very strong storm. Earth is not safe from these kind of events, so it's time to be prepared.

The original research reported here may be found in Nature Communications: "Observations of an extreme storm in interplanetary space caused by successive coronal mass ejections" by Ying D. Liu et al., published on March, 18, 2014.

 

SSN: 132 (Ayer)

Ha habido un posible error hoy en el seguimiento de la CME de tipo X 1.0 de hoy. Al parecer le han dado una velocidad de aproximación a la Tierra de 4.500 km/s, lo que supone una verdadera animalada, ya que la CME llegaría a toda castaña en un viaje de solo 9 horas. Se está recalculando.

Ha habido un posible error hoy en el seguimiento de la CME de tipo X 1.0 de hoy. Al parecer le han dado una velocidad de aproximación a la Tierra de 4.500 km/s, lo que supone una verdadera animalada, ya que la CME llegaría a toda castaña en un viaje de solo 9 horas. Se está recalculando.

Imagen:





La verdad es que no parece siquiera que vaya a ser muy geoefectiva.

 

Al parecer ha habido un desmentido y por lo tanto pasará de largo.