Informe IPCC 2014 para América del Norte: "Las inundaciones urbanas en zonas fluviales y costeras, que inducen pobreza y daños en las infraestructuras; desorganización de la cadena de suministro, los ecosistemas y los sistemas sociales; impactos de salud pública; y disminución de la calidad del agua, debido a la elevación del nivel del mar, precipitación extrema y ciclones (nivel de confianza alto)''.
Yo , ahí no veo que . la palabra
ciclones venga junta a la palabra/s
aumento. incremento , por lo cual lo de que el ipcc afirma que habrá aumento de la actividad ciclonica te lo has sacado tu de la chistera ..
Pero vamos ha ver lo que realmente dicen en verdad los cientificos.
http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanesEstas son las conclusiones:It is premature to conclude that human activities--and particularly greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming--have already had a detectable impact on Atlantic hurricane or global tropical cyclone activity. That said, human activities may have already caused changes that are not yet detectable due to the small magnitude of the changes or observational limitations, or are model-estimated changes with considerable uncertainty (e.g., aerosol effects).
Anthropogenic warming by the end of the 21st century will likely cause tropical cyclones globally to be more intense on average (by 2 to 11% according to model projections for an IPCC A1B scenario). This change would imply an even larger percentage increase in the destructive potential per storm, assuming no reduction in storm size.
There are better than even odds that anthropogenic warming over the next century will lead to an increase in the occurrence of very intense tropical cyclone in some basins—an increase that would be substantially larger in percentage terms than the 2-11% increase in the average storm intensity. This increase in intense storm occurrence is projected despite a likely decrease (or little change) in the global numbers of all tropical cyclones.
Anthropogenic warming by the end of the 21st century will likely cause tropical cyclones to have substantially higher rainfall rates than present-day ones, with a model-projected increase of about 10-15% for rainfall rates averaged within about 100 km of the storm center.La verdad es que se habla de
aumento de los ciclones intensos , y aumento de la cantidad de lluvia asociados a los mismos , pero no dice nada de aumento de la ocurrencia del fenómeno en general , sino que al contrario , se sugiere que puede haber una leve disminución de los mismos...
This increase in intense storm occurrence is projected despite a likely decrease (or little change) in the global numbers of all tropical cyclones.En cuanto al gráfico es algo , tramposo , ya que habla solo de los huracanes
que han impactado tierra en EEUU , lo cual no representa en absoluto , el comportamiento de la actividad ciclónica mundial