Cita de: Ermuleto en Martes 21 Marzo 2006 18:39:34 PM
Informe sobre el Pronóstico de la Temporada de Ciclones Tropicales 2006



1a Versión - Enero, 2006

Interesante. Pero creo que el último informe apunta a la posibilidad de más ciclones:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/atmosweather/show.html

Cita de: CumulusSirrus en Lunes 20 Marzo 2006 03:12:23 AM
Hola, miren la ultima prediccion de la temporada 2006 de huracanes para el atlantico, es increible de darse esos numeros estariamos igualando el record 2005, incluso superarlo

Official Outlook No. 5: Issued March 17th 2006

Tropical Cyclones (including Tropical Depressions): 27-29
Named Storms: 25-27
Hurricanes: 13-15
Major Hurricanes: 6-8
Category 4-5 Hurricanes: 3-5

Probability of Above Average Activity (115% of Norm): 100%
Probability of Hyperactive Season (150% of Norm): 95%

ACE Index Outlook: 180-270

Probability of a Tropical Cyclone making landfall in U.S: 100%
Probability of a Named Storm making landfall in U.S: 99%
Probability of a Hurricane making landfall in U.S: 93%
Probability of a Major Hurricane making landfall in U.S 80%
Probability of a Category 4-5 Hurricane making landfall in U.S: 51%
Probability of a Category 5 Hurricane making landfall in U.S: 35%

Major Areas of Concern: (+ indicated at least the strength of that category, for example T STM+ means probability of at least 1 Tropical Storm strength storm or higher striking that area)

Area: T STM+ HURRC+ MJ HR+ CAT 4+

NE FL 45% 30% 15% 5%
SE FL 75% 60% 40% 25%
NW FL 60% 45% 30% 15%
SW FL 70% 55% 40% 20%
AL 30% 20% 10% 5%
MS 30% 20% 10% 5%
SE LA 50% 35% 20% 10%
SW LA 40% 25% 10% 5%
N TX 25% 15% 5% <5%
C TX 40% 25% 15% 10%
S TX 45% 35% 25% 15%
GA 20% 10% 5% <5%
SC 30% 15% 10% 5%
NC 50% 35% 20% 10%
Other 35% 25% 15% 5%

Most Likely Landfalling Storms for U.S:

Most likely number of landfalling storms in U.S: 9
Most likely number of landfalling Hurricanes in U.S: 5
Most likely number of landfalling Major Hurricanes in U.S: 4

Most likely months for landfalling storms: late-July, late-August, mid-September

Four most likely areas to recieve storms: SE FL, SW FL, NW FL, SE LA
Three most likely areas to recieve hurricanes: SE FL, SW FL, S TX
Two most likely areas to receive major hurricanes: SE FL, SW FL

My Next Blog Entries

From the April 1st update and onwards, I will be issuing an even more detailed outlook complete with maps and further probabilties. I will also write a discussion as to why I decided on the numbers each time, and also a quick update on the sea surface temperatures, La Nina, and long range models.

Please feel free to leave your own forecasts as well as comment on mine

Thanks,

Rich

Next Update: April 1st 2006

Ciclón Tropical WATI (Huracán Categoría 1)







70 Kts y 972 mb (NRL Navy).

87.4 Kts y 961.6 mb (CIMMS).






12 GMT 03/19/06  -16S 163.1E     40       Tropical Storm
18 GMT 03/19/06  -16.8S 161.8E     50       Tropical Storm
00 GMT 03/20/06  -17.2S 160.0E     65       Tropical Storm
06 GMT 03/20/06  -17.6S 158.8E     65       Tropical Storm
12 GMT 03/20/06  -17.9S 157.8E     65       Tropical Storm
18 GMT 03/20/06  -17.7S 156.3E     65       Tropical Storm
00 GMT 03/21/06  -17.6S 155.4E     65       Tropical Storm
06 GMT 03/21/06  -17.9S 154.8E     75       Category 1
12 GMT 03/21/06  -17.7S 154.3E     75       Category 1

Esta tarde en las noticias del tiempo de TV3 oí hablar de este ciclón y buscando me encontré con esta información:
Nombre:       Wati
Categoría:       3
Localización:       17.4S 153.7E
Movimiento reciente:       WNW a 10 km/h

Wati se espera que permanezca aguas afuera de la costa australiana, con movimiento lento durante el resto de la semana.La combinación de este sistema y un alta presión de 1028 hPa en el mar de Tasmania, se espera que produzcan fuertes vientos y mares entre Bowen y Fraser Island.Mares enormes se desarrollarán a lo largo de las aguas abiertas de las costas sur y centrales.
Podéis ver la imagen del último satelite en este enlace:
http://www.bom.gov.au/gms/IDE00035.latest.shtml
Y la trayectoria que se espera que siga en este otro:
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65004.shtml

Ciclón Tropical FLOYD (Tormenta Tropical)






55 Kts y 984 mb.

IDQ20066
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Correction - TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 5am EST on Wednesday the 22nd of March 2006

At 5am EST Wednesday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Wati, category 3 with central
pressure 970 hPa, was located over the central Coral Sea.

Wati is positioned at 5am near 17.4S 153.7E, which is about 630 km northeast of
Mackay. Tropical Cyclone Wati is moving towards the west-northwest at 10 km per
hour and should gradually intensify over the next 24 hours.

Wati is expected to remain slow moving in offshore waters for the rest of the
week. The combination of this system and a 1028 hPa high in the Tasman Sea is
expected to produce strong to gale force winds off the coast between Bowen and
Fraser Island. Large seas will develop along open waters of the southern and
central coasts.

The next bulletin will be issued at 11am Wednesday.

Queda fusionado CON SEGUIMIENTO DE HURACANES.
Un saludo Esocaire

El Ciclón Tropical WATI (Huracán Categoría 1 - Escala Saffir-Simpson) tiene en estos momentos, 75 Kts y 967 mb.


IDQ20066
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 11pm EST on Wednesday the 22nd of March 2006

At 11pm EST Wednesday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Wati, category 3 (Escala australiana), with central
pressure 955 hPa, was located over the central Coral Sea near latitude 18.0
south, longitude 153.9 east, which is about 610 km northeast of Mackay. The
cyclone has recently remained almost stationary.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Wati should remain near stationary over the next 12
hours while maintaining its intensity, and is subsequently most likely to adopt
a general southerly track over the following few days, in response to an upper
trough approaching from the west, and a building mid-level ridge to the east of
the cyclone. Although this is the most likely scenario, there remain some
subtleties in the surrounding flow, and there is a small chance the cyclone may
remain slow-moving, and edge slightly closer to the central Qld coast. 

The combination of the cyclone and a large high in the Tasman Sea is expected to
produce strong winds and large seas off the coast between Bowen and Fraser
Island.   

The next bulletin will be issued by 5am Thursday.


12 GMT 03/19/06  -16S 163.1E     40       Tropical Storm
18 GMT 03/19/06  -16.8S 161.8E     50       Tropical Storm
00 GMT 03/20/06  -17.2S 160.0E     65       Tropical Storm
06 GMT 03/20/06  -17.6S 158.8E     65       Tropical Storm
12 GMT 03/20/06  -17.9S 157.8E     65       Tropical Storm
18 GMT 03/20/06  -17.7S 156.3E     65       Tropical Storm
00 GMT 03/21/06  -17.6S 155.4E     65       Tropical Storm
06 GMT 03/21/06  -17.9S 154.8E     75       Category 1
12 GMT 03/21/06  -17.7S 154.3E     75       Category 1
18 GMT 03/21/06  -17.5S 153.7E     80       Category 1
06 GMT 03/22/06  -17.9S 153.7E     90       Category 1
12 GMT 03/22/06  -18S 153.7E     85       Category 1





Esperemos que no siga la trayectoria marcada con la línea azul, porque lo llevaría nuevamente hacia tierra.

Date :  22 MAR 2006    Time :   133300 UTC
      Lat :   18:06:12 S     Lon :  154:36:16 E

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                4.6 / 968.2mb/ 79.6kt

     
     Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP :  +4.6mb

      6hr-Avg T#  3hr-Avg T#   Adj T#   Raw T#
         4.5         4.5        4.5      4.5

Eye Temp : -78.5C       Cloud Region Temp : -68.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC 
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC   

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
                   Weakening Flag : WEAKEN



Este es el análisis del CIMMS sobre WATI.

Ciclón Tropical FLOYD (Huracán Categoría 1)








75 kts y 967 mb. Empate técnico, entre FLOYD y WATI. 


IDW24000
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 8:50 pm WST on Wednesday, 22 March 2006
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

Tropical Cyclone Floyd [Severity Category 2](escala australiana) was located at 8pm WST Wednesday
near 13.1S 112.0E, that is 995 kilometres
north northwest of Karratha, and moving west at 15 kilometres per hour. The
cyclone is not expected to affect the coast within the next 48 hours.

The next advice will be issued at 3am Thursday.


06 GMT 03/21/06  -12.5S 115.7E     45       Tropical Storm
18 GMT 03/21/06  -13.2S 114.0E     65       Tropical Storm
06 GMT 03/22/06  -13.4S 112.5E     75       Category 1
12 GMT 03/22/06  -13.4S 111.7E     85       Category 1





Interesante el modelo de trayectoria, marcado con la línea de color azul. Lo encaminaría hacia Australia, pasaría rozándola.

Date :  22 MAR 2006    Time :   133300 UTC
      Lat :   13:37:18 S     Lon :  111:05:47 E

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                4.7 / 969.8mb/ 82.2kt

     
     Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP :  +8.6mb

      6hr-Avg T#  3hr-Avg T#   Adj T#   Raw T#
         4.7         4.7        4.9      5.0

Eye Temp : -83.5C       Cloud Region Temp : -85.2C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN       
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC   

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
                   Weakening Flag : OFF



Este es el análisis del CIMMS sobre FLOYD. Se espera que se refuerce, hasta llegar a 90 kts. Yo creo que lo hará e inclusive los superará, gracias a su futuro movimiento hacia el Sur.

Jejejeje... Tenemos otro Sistema Tropical gestándose, en el Noroeste de Australia. Este a diferencia de los otros es muy peculiar, ya que se está formando en tierra. No es la primera vez que ocurre esto en Australia, ya a finales del 2005 ocurrió con otro Sistema. Una vez en el mar se reforzó, para más tarde golpear tierra con mucha virulencia.

Este nuevo Sistema va a dar mucho que hablar, estoy seguro. En breve, se va a adentrar en el mar y seguramente se refuerce.

En estos momentos tiene 20 kts y 1004 mb.




Animación

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDE00900.loop.shtml