Huracán CELIA Categoría 5 (04E SW México)

Esto es lo más actual que he encontrado, Pepe  :

Potencia que le dan, infrarrojos y trayectoria.

Animación de Celia





http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/2010_04E/webManager/mainpage.html

No he encontrado nada por el blog de Jeff Masters, ni por ningún blog/foro/website de USÁmerica, bueno, dejo la imagen mas ''nueva'' de hace 9 horas.



edito:vale, es lo que cuelga Sagra

 

CELIA aun NO es huracán en el nuevo aviso del CNH le siguen dando la misma intensidad de   55 KT

Imagen Rainbow

los topes nubosos de CELIA son muy frios cerca de su centro

Pues si que se está haciendo de rogar.
Se sigue contemplando esa Categoría 3.

THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR TO GRADUALLY RELAXING OVER CELIA IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...SHOWING GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF NEAR 100 KT IN 3 OR 4 DAYS.  SOME
WEAKENING IS INDICATED AT DAY 5...AS CELIA WILL LIKELY BE
APPROACHING COOLER WATERS BY THAT TIME.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL...AND IS ABOVE ALL OF THE
DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...ONLY THE
GFDN SHOWS CELIA REACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      20/1500Z 11.9N 100.0W    55 KT
 12HR VT     21/0000Z 11.7N 101.0W    65 KT
 24HR VT     21/1200Z 11.6N 102.3W    75 KT
 36HR VT     22/0000Z 11.7N 103.4W    80 KT
 48HR VT     22/1200Z 11.8N 104.7W    85 KT
 72HR VT     23/1200Z 12.3N 107.8W    95 KT
 96HR VT     24/1200Z 13.5N 111.5W   100 KT
120HR VT     25/1200Z 15.0N 115.0W    90 KT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

JOJOJOJO!!!

Ahora si hay ''eye like feature'' , o por lo menos un amago
100W 11.5N

En la imagen de 85GHz no se aprecia tan detalladamente..
Visible


 

CELIA se intensifica a huracán

EP, 04, 2010062018,   , BEST,   0, 116N, 1000W,  65,  990, HU

Cambio en las previsones de Celia, dándole un máximo de 115mph,



Y por aquí ya le nombran huracán:

Huracán Celia

Por cierto ya se aprecia el ojo en ese link

 

No me extraña, sinceramente...
Supongo que en el próximo parte tendremos huracán.

SHIPS  se casca un bicho de 106kt en +72 horas

No pongo visible, que está reciente de mi anterior post.

 

Pongo animación 

sale el parte

THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT THE EASTERLY SHEAR CURRENT THAT HAS
BEEN AFFECTING CELIA WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW CELIA TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE OTHERWISE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD AND
IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. A BROAD PEAK IN
INTENSITY IS INDICATED LATER IN THE PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY SOME
WEAKENING BY DAY 5 AS CELIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF
COOLER WATERS AROUND THAT TIME.  IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE SHIPS
RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF 25
KT OF INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT ONLY A 2 PERCENT
CHANCE OF 30 KT OR MORE IN THAT PERIOD.

THE CENTER OF CELIA MOVED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE LONG TERM INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 260/6.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING
REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS CELIA WILL BE STEERED GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR
THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS BY A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.
BEYOND THAT TIME...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW CELIA TO TURN MORE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS.  

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      20/2100Z 11.6N 100.3W    65 KT
 12HR VT     21/0600Z 11.4N 101.3W    75 KT
 24HR VT     21/1800Z 11.4N 102.5W    85 KT
 36HR VT     22/0600Z 11.5N 103.7W    90 KT
 48HR VT     22/1800Z 11.6N 105.1W   100 KT
 72HR VT     23/1800Z 12.3N 108.5W   100 KT
 96HR VT     24/1800Z 13.5N 112.5W   100 KT
120HR VT     25/1800Z 15.0N 116.0W    90 KT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


Se mantienen las previsiones de 100kt, a ver hasta donde es capaz de llegar

 

Pues si

...CELIA BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2010 EAST PACIFIC SEASON...

eeeehhh!!
QUIETA AHI QUE TE VEAMOS!!

ostias!!



Veo a Celia algo cabreada...



A ver si sale una imagen de 85GHz decente...