Cita de: fhfh en Lunes 29 Mayo 2006 19:52:13 PM
Y como es que no es ningun sistema tropical si es mas grande que Aletta? 

Porque no reune las características que debe tener un Sistema Tropical. Aunque podría darnos una sorpresa, ya que dentro de muy poco se topará con una Onda Tropical.

Atentos en el Atlántico, Caribe y Golfo de México, creo que la formación de un Sistema Tropical es inminente. Esto podría ocurrir entre el Miércoles y el Jueves.

Zonas para mi parecer, con un alto porcentaje de posibilidades:

- Golfo de México y costas de Panamá.


Saludos.

Gracias Ermuleto 

Y que es una onda tropical? 

Cita de: Ermuleto en Lunes 29 Mayo 2006 20:00:31 PM

Cita de: fhfh en Lunes 29 Mayo 2006 19:52:13 PM
Y como es que no es ningun sistema tropical si es mas grande que Aletta? 

Porque no reune las características que debe tener un Sistema Tropical. Aunque podría darnos una sorpresa, ya que dentro de muy poco se topará con una Onda Tropical.

Atentos en el Atlántico, Caribe y Golfo de México, creo que la formación de un Sistema Tropical es inminente. Esto podría ocurrir entre el Miércoles y el Jueves.

Zonas para mi parecer, con un alto porcentaje de posibilidades:

- Golfo de México y costas de Panamá.


Saludos.

Efectivamente, la zona del golfo de mexico es la que han dado muchos organismos y informes para ser el primer TS de la temporada atlantica

Cita de: fhfh en Lunes 29 Mayo 2006 20:28:50 PM
Gracias Ermuleto 

Y que es una onda tropical? 

ONDA TROPICAL (Onda del Este)

Perturbación de escala sinóptica en la corriente de los vientos alisios y viaja con ellos hacia el oeste a una velocidad media de 15 Km/h. Produce fuerte convección sobre la zona que atraviesa.

Gracia Ermuleto 

Aletta va a menos...

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      29/2100Z 15.9N 102.1W    35 KT
12HR VT     30/0600Z 15.9N 102.8W    40 KT
24HR VT     30/1800Z 15.8N 103.7W    40 KT
36HR VT     31/0600Z 15.8N 104.7W    35 KT
48HR VT     31/1800Z 15.6N 105.7W    35 KT
72HR VT     01/1800Z 15.5N 107.5W    30 KT
96HR VT     02/1800Z 15.5N 109.0W    25 KT
120HR VT     03/1800Z 15.5N 111.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW


Le han bajado bastante la intensidad máxima y la probabilidades de que suba a huracan son poco menos que nada.

A ver si la zona que comenta Ermuleto se anima con esa onda tropical y vemos nacer al esperado Alberto.

Aletta tiene las horas contadas. Ha bajado a Depresión Tropical con 30Kts y disminuyendo rápidamente a extratropical.

A ver que da de si el golfo de mexico 

Hoy en el periodico de aqui, en la ultima hoja, ponia que el 1 de junio jueves, empezaria la temporada en el atlantico y que se esperaba que fuera menos intensa que la pasada 2005, pero aun asi bastante por encima de la media 

No entiendo nada de nada. La depresión tropical Aletta segun el NHC/Navy está disminuyendo su intensidad y estaría en 25kts/1005mb.

Sin embargo, el CIMSS da una intensidad muy superior, con 55Kts/1001mb. En el historial se puede ver que la presión ha ido disminuyendo y que la intensidad de los vientos ha aumentado en las últimas horas.



¿Alguien puede explicar el porqué de estas grandes diferencias? Me imagino que debe haber una explicación razonable, pero ahora mismo se me escapa.

Hola, mientras esperamos el inminenete inicio de la temp. en el atlantico, les dejo un interesante pronostico que encontre en weather undergraund de lo que podria llegar a ser la temporada de huracanes...... is in inglish, I'am soorrry!!!!!!!

Final Official Outlook: Issued May 24th 2006

Tropical Cyclones (including Tropical Depressions): 19-21
Named Storms: 18-20
Hurricanes: 10-12
Major Hurricanes: 5-7
Category 4-5 Hurricanes: 3-5

Probability of Above Average Activity (115% of Norm): 90%
Probability of Hyperactive Season (150% of Norm): 75%

ACE Index Outlook: 150-235

Probability of a Tropical Cyclone making landfall in U.S: 95%
Probability of a Named Storm making landfall in U.S: 94%
Probability of a Hurricane making landfall in U.S: 82%
Probability of a Major Hurricane making landfall in U.S 71%
Probability of a Category 4-5 Hurricane making landfall in U.S: 53%
Probability of a Category 5 Hurricane making landfall in U.S: 39%

Major Areas of Concern: (+ indicated at least the strength of that category, for example T STM+ means probability of at least 1 Tropical Storm strength storm or higher striking that area)

Area: T STM+ HURRC+ MJ HR+ CAT 4+

NE FL 35% 25% 10% 5%
SE FL 65% 50% 35% 20%
NW FL 60% 40% 30% 15%
SW FL 65% 50% 40% 20%
AL 30% 20% 10% 5%
MS 30% 20% 10% 5%
SE LA 35% 25% 15% 5%
SW LA 30% 20% 10% 5%
N TX 25% 15% 5% <5%
C TX 40% 25% 15% 10%
S TX 45% 30% 20% 10%
GA 20% 10% 5% <5%
SC 25% 15% 5% <5%
NC 55% 40% 25% 10%
Other 40% 25% 10% <5%


Most Likely Landfalling Storms for U.S:

This section is the most difficult to predict. Accuracy in the past has been 30-40%.

Most likely number of landfalling storms in U.S: 8
Most likely number of landfalling Hurricanes in U.S: 4
Most likely number of landfalling Major Hurricanes in U.S: 3

Most likely months for landfalling storms: mid-July, late-August, mid-September

Four most likely areas to recieve storms: SE FL, SW FL, NW FL, NC
Three most likely areas to recieve hurricanes: SE FL, NC, NW FL
Two most likely areas to receive major hurricanes: SE FL, SW FL


Tropical Updates:

Sea Surface Temperature Discussion:

As we approach June 1st and the start of hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin, one of the most important factors in determining the frequency and the strength of future and present storms is how warm the water is below them. Early this year, sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico were 3-4 degrees C (5-7 degrees F) above average, and while they have dropped off slightly in recent weeks, they are still between 0.5 and 1.5 degrees C (1-3 degrees F) warmer than usual. As for the the Caribbean, temperatures in the western areas are slightly warmer than temperatures in the eastern areas. This will allow the very warm waters near the Yucatan channel to feed northward into the Gulf via the loop current. The rest of the Atlantic Basin is above average, particularly in the area near the coast of the Carolinas. However, temperatures in the deep tropics are slightly cooler than last year's record values.Bear in mind that the next 2 weeks is annually the period in which sea surface temperatures (especially in the western Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico) exhibit rapid warming. Therefore, I expect that average temperatures in the Gulf will reach 27-28 degrees C (80-82 degrees F) by the end of the first week of June, and most areas in the western Atlantic south of 30 degrees North latitude will most likely be at or above the common tropical cyclone genesis threshold of 26 degrees C (79 degrees F). Despite the fact that overall sea surface temperatures in the whole Atlantic Basin are slightly cooler than last year's temperatures, I still expect most areas to be above climatological values and contribute to another active hurricane season.


Sea surface temperatures for May 23rd 2006.




Sea surface temperatures for May 23rd 2005.




Sea surface temperature forecast for May 28th 2006.


Wind Shear Discussion:
Many of the most reliable models predicted early last week that the tropical and subtropical jet (The plume of high shear that exisits in the less active tropical months) would break apart and leave almost the entire Atlantic Basin under 20 knots or less of shear by the beginning of this week. Well, that has yet to happen, and judging by the latest model initializations, it probably won't happen this week either. However, shear in most of the Caribbean is below the climatological average, and areas of the deep tropical Atlantic are experiencing well below average shear, which suggests that the jet is maybe starting to crumble. Based on past years and long range models such as the GFS, I think moderate shear will still exist in most of the Atlantic Basin until the second week of June, when I think the subtropical and tropical jet will finally disappear leaving the Atlantic Basin under typical hurricane season values of shear. I do not expect wind shear to be any higher than last year's values across the Atlantic Basin. Why? Because there is no El Nino, which drives stronger than normal easterly trade winds into the Atlantic causin higher values of vertical wind shear, and also, the fact that much of the Atlantic Basin has been sitting under an upper level ridge of high pressure, which tends to weaken trade winds therefore decreasing vertical shear levels. Thus, I don't think that wind shear will be any more of a problem than in an average hurricane season, again supporting many people's forecasts of an active hurricane season.

Wind shear averages for the Atlantic Basin (scroll down to the bottom of the screen)

GFS May 24th 12Z Model Shear forecast for May 30th


The Bermuda High:

This is the topic that most people want to know about. It is also happens to be one of the hardest areas in meteorology to predict accurately over a period of time. The Bermuda High bears incredible importance to coastlines across the Atlantic Basin, because it is the main weather item used in determining how many and how strong tropical cyclones can get, and, most importantly, where they will end up. Sinc surface high pressure areas (like the Bermuda High) act as road blocks for tropical cyclones, storms tend to move around them towards the higher latitudes. The Bermuda High usually sits in the middle of the Atlantic Basin (hence named because it is centered close to the island of Bermuda, or sometimes named the Azores High as it is semi-permanent and can move towards the Azores Islands), therefore, it acts as the road sign for many of a season's tropical cyclones.

The position and intensity of this High is of upmost importance to the United States and the rest of the Atlantic Basin coastline, as it affects which areas receive storms. The stronger the Bermuda High, the further west a storm can travel before turning North. If the Bermuda High is centered to the east of its usual position, the quicker a storm will be able to turn North, hence increasing the likelihood that the storm will "recurve" out into the open Atlantic. However, if the Bermuda High is centered west of its usual position, like we saw in the 2004 Atlantic Hurricane Season, tropical cyclones cannot turn North as far east and therefore can't recurve away from the United States. This is why Florida was slammed by 4 hurricanes, because the Bermuda High directed them west all the way to the United States where they made a north turn either in the Gulf of Mexico or over land.

Concerning the 2006 hurricane season, no one can accurately forecast where and how strong the Bermuda High will be during the peak months (August through October). The main reason for this is the fact that the Bermuda High is semi-permanent, meaning it can move around the basin and change strength often. However, due to the fact that an active trough pattern has been occuring throughout the year so far, I think that the Bermuda High will be displaced slightly east of its usual position. However, it is not all good news, because the High has been particularly strong recently, and I don't see a lot of reasons for it to weaken much throughout hurricane season. Therefore, I believe we will see a stronger than average Bermuda High that will be frequently moving due to many troughs displacing it. I realize, however, that this is an extremely tough weather pattern to forecast, and so we should all be prepared for the Bermuda High to change strength and displace itself often.


In the meantime, everyone is welcome to comment, hold discussions, or just congregate here as they please. I hope that everyone takes care and continues to help people as you all do so well on this site. I hope you have a safe and happy first 2 weeks of hurricane season!

El unico comentario que voy a acer es este: Es increible la diferencia a estas fechas de las SST con respecto al año pasado en esas imagenes....

Hola, como ya sabéis el año pasado fuimos testigos de la violencia de las tormentas tropicales Delta y Vince, éste año podrá pasar lo mismo?

Otra cosa, el otro día vi en la tele que éste año estaba la temperatura del agua del mar demasiado caliente incluso más que el año pasado, por la zona de Canarias pero mas abajo... es que no se como decir... dijeron que no se solía dar esa temperatura en éstas fechas... recordemos que vamos a llegar a junio, sabe dios como estará la temperatura del agua en agosto...

¿que pasará?

me encanta la intriga... jaja