Cita de: CumulusSirrus en Lunes 22 Mayo 2006 19:45:04 PM
En referencia a la noticia que nos deja gonza ,yo les dejo el ultimo parte de la noaa recien saldo del horno......
Una de las cosas que me inquietan es que en este reporte ellos dicen que la discucion se centra no en si la temporada va a hacer mayor de lo normal sino cuan mayor de lo normal puede llegar a ser........

NOAA: 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook 
Issued: 22 May 2006


SUMMARY
NOAA's 2006 Atlantic hurricane season outlook indicates an 80% chance of an above-normal hurricane season, a 15% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 5% chance of a below-normal season. This outlook is produced by scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), National Hurricane Center (NHC), and Hurricane Research Division (HRD). See NOAA's definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons.

The outlook calls for a very active 2006 season, with 13-16 named storms, 8-10 hurricanes, and 4-6 major hurricanes. The likely range of the ACE index is 135%-205% of the median. This prediction indicates a continuation of above-normal activity that began in 1995. However, we do not currently expect a repeat of last year's record season.

The predicted 2006 activity strongly reflects an expected continuation of conditions associated with the multi-decadal signal, which has favored above-normal Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995. These conditions include considerably warmer than normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs), lower wind shear, reduced sea level pressure, and a more conducive structure of the African easterly jet. An updated Atlantic hurricane outlook will be issued in early August, which begins the peak months (August-October) of the hurricane season.

DISCUSSION

1. Expected Activity - 80% chance above normal, 15% chance near normal, 5% chance below normal

An important measure of the total seasonal activity is NOAA's Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which accounts for the collective intensity and duration of Atlantic named storms and hurricanes during a given hurricane season. The ACE index is also used to define above-, near-, and below-normal hurricane seasons (see Background Information). A value of 117% of the median (Median value is 87.5) corresponds to the lower boundary for an above-normal season.

For the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season, the ACE index is expected to be in the range of 135%-205% of the median. The upper half of this range is above the 175% baseline that Goldenberg et al. (Science, 2001) use to define a hyperactive season. Based on this predicted ACE range and on the 80% probability of an above-normal season, we expect 13-16 named storms, 8-10 hurricanes, and 4-6 major hurricanes [categories 3-4-5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale]. This predicted ACE range can be satisfied even if the numbers of named storms, hurricanes, or major hurricanes fall outside their expected ranges.

The vast majority of named storms and hurricanes are expected to form during August-October over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, which is typical for above-normal seasons. These systems generally track westward toward the Caribbean Sea and/or United States as they strengthen. Historically, very active seasons have averaged 2-4 landfalling hurricanes in the continental United States and 2-3 hurricanes in the region around the Caribbean Sea. However, it is currently not possible to confidently predict at these extended ranges the number or intensity of landfalling hurricanes, and whether or not a given locality will be impacted by a hurricane this season.

2. Expected Climate Conditions – Active multi-decadal signal, above-average Atlantic Ocean temperatures, ENSO-neutral conditions

All of the Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995 have been above normal, with the exception of two moderate to strong El Niño years (1997 and 2002). This contrasts sharply with the 1971-1994 period of generally below-normal activity (Goldenberg et al., Science, 2001). Time series of key atmospheric wind parameters highlight the dramatic differences between these above-normal and below-normal periods. Conditions were also very conducive for above-normal hurricane seasons during the 1950s and 1960s, as seen by comparing Atlantic SSTs and seasonal ACE values.

The regional atmospheric circulation contributing to these long-period fluctuations in hurricane activity is strongly linked to the tropics-wide multi-decadal signal (Bell and Chelliah, 2006). Since 1995 this signal has been very conducive to above-normal hurricane seasons and warmer Atlantic SSTs, and it is again the main factor guiding the 2006 outlook.

Over the North Atlantic, key aspects of the multi-decadal signal expected during the 2006 hurricane season include 1) warmer SSTs, lower surface air pressure, and increased moisture across the tropical Atlantic, 2) an amplified ridge at upper levels across the central and eastern subtropical North Atlantic, 3) reduced vertical wind shear in the deep tropics over the central North Atlantic, which results from an expanded area of easterly winds in the upper atmosphere (green arrows) and weaker easterly trade winds in the lower atmosphere (dark blue arrows), and 4) weaker easterly winds in the middle and lower atmosphere, resulting in a configuration of the African easterly jet (wavy blue arrow) that favors hurricane development from tropical waves moving westward from the African coast. Some early-season indicators of an active hurricane season are already developing. These include warmer SSTs and weaker easterly winds in the middle atmosphere, both of which have strong links to the multi-decadal signal.

Although we expect a very active hurricane season during 2006, we are not forecasting a repeat of last year's record season at this time. This is partly because the tropical Atlantic SSTs are not presently as warm as we saw last year at this time. Also, a combination of conditions led to the record 2005 season. Some of those, particularly an amplified upper-level ridge over the eastern U.S., long periods of suppressed convection near the date line, and exceptionally low pressures in the Gulf and Caribbean Sea region, are simply not predictable at this time.

Another factor known to significantly impact Atlantic hurricane seasons is ENSO (Gray, 1984. El Niño favors fewer hurricanes and La Niña favors more hurricanes. Based on the most recent ENSO outlook issued by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, ENSO-neutral conditions are expected in the tropical Pacific through much of the Atlantic hurricane season. Therefore, ENSO is not expected to impact this hurricane season.

3. Multi-decadal fluctuations in Atlantic hurricane activity

Atlantic hurricane seasons exhibit prolonged periods lasting decades of generally above-normal or below-normal activity. These fluctuations in hurricane activity result almost entirely from differences in the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes forming from tropical storms first named in the main development region, which spans the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea.

Hurricane seasons during 1995-2005 have averaged 15 named storms, 8.5 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an average ACE index of 179% of the median. NOAA classifies nine of the last eleven hurricane seasons as above normal, and seven as hyperactive. In contrast, during the preceding 1971-1994 period, hurricane seasons averaged 8.5 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 1.5 major hurricanes, with an average ACE index of only 75% of the median. One-half of these seasons were below normal, only three were above normal (1980, 1988, 1989), and none were hyperactive.

4. Uncertainties in the Outlook

The main uncertainty in this outlook is not whether the season will be above normal, but how much above normal it will be. The 2006 season could become the fourth hyperactive season in a row. Another uncertainty is related to forecasting some of the specific circulation features known to produce exceptionally active seasons. High activity during the last three seasons resulted partly from an amplified upper-level ridge and lower wind shear over the western subtropical North Atlantic and eastern United States (Bell et al. 2004, 2005, 2006). In the event these conditions again develop, which cannot be predicted with confidence at this time, the 2006 seasonal ACE value could even exceed the high end of our predicted range. However, we do not currently expect a repeat of last year's record season.

Despite the forecasted ENSO-neutral conditions, the possibility exists for prolonged periods of suppressed convection over the central equatorial Pacific, consistent with very warm SSTs and enhanced tropical convection remaining over Indonesia and the western equatorial Pacific. Suppressed convection over the central equatorial Pacific produces a La Niña-like response in the atmospheric circulation, and results in a stronger upper-level ridge and lower wind shear over the western tropical Atlantic. The combination of an active Atlantic era and suppressed convection near the date line is known to favor extremely active Atlantic hurricane seasons, as was seen last season.

NOAA scientists will closely monitor the evolving climate conditions. NOAA's updated Atlantic hurricane outlook will be issued in early August, which begins the peak months (August-October) of the hurricane season.

Muy interesante la noticia compañero...

lo malo es que en ingles no se entiende ni mucho menos todo lo que deviera....haber si cuelgan mas referencias de lo que puede pasar este año, bsadas en los analisis que estan haciendo de la situacion los cientificos. S2.

Yo, oponion muy personal; creo que esta temporada va a ser increible y va a seguir avanzando en la firmeza de asentar en la conciencia colectiva, que el cambio climatico es mucho mas grave de lo que se dice, mas rapido y que sus primeros efectos estan hay a la vuelta de la esquina. No hablo de un dia de mañana de semejante velocidad (no olvidemos que es una pelicula (para mi gusto muy buena, y no solo por tratar de temas meteo,je,je)) pero si de otro veloz, de otro que veremos nosotros.

He encontrado esto (es un estracto de lo que se colgo ayer  , pero en español):

Pronostican otra dura temporada de huracanes en el Atlántico

MIAMI (AFP) - Unos 10 huracanes podrían formarse este año en el Atlántico y amenazar al Caribe y las costas del Golfo de México, dijeron unos expertos el lunes, pidiendo a los residentes de zonas vulnerables que se preparen para impactos devastadores y que obedezcan las órdenes de evacuación.

"El pronóstico señala que la temporada 2006 será muy activa, con entre 13 y 16 tormentas con nombre, 8 a 10 huracanes y 4 a 6 huracanes poderosos" de categoría 3 ó más en la escala Saffir-Simpson (máxima 5), indicó el lunes en un informe la Administración Nacional Oceánica y Atmosférica estadounidense (NOAA).

El director de la NOAA, el vicealmirante Conrad Lautenbacher, dijo que es probable que de dos a cuatro de esos huracanes lleguen a Estados Unidos, y expresó que sólo pensar en que otro huracán pueda impactar en el país en la costa del Golfo de México "es una posibilidad perturbadora pero real".

El informe indica que la temporada ciclónica que comienza el próximo 1 de junio no alcanzará los niveles del año pasado, cuando se formaron 28 tormentas y de ellas 15 huracanes, siete de ellos considerados intensos.

El promedio de tormentas en la cuenca Atlántica ha sido de 11 durante los pasados 40 años.

Pero Robert Latham, director de Emergencias de Mississippi (sur estadounidense), advirtió que no se necesita un huracán "mayor" para acabar de demoler la región ya devastada por "Katrina" el año pasado, cuando dejó 1.500 muertos en la costa del Golfo, la mayor parte en Nueva Orleans, y más de 200 en Mississippi.

El director de Emergencias de Luisiana, Jeff Smith, también advirtió que los diques y compuertas que mantenían a raya a las aguas en Nueva Orleans aún no han sido reparados por completo.

El daño de esos sistemas provocó enormes inundaciones en la ciudad tras "Katrina" y provocó la mayor parte de las muertes.

"El Cuerpo de Ingenieros del Ejército recientemente indicaba que todas las compuertas y sistemas de diques no van a estar listos a los niveles anteriores a Katrina para el 1 de junio", dijo Smith.

Por eso ambos enfatizaron la inminencia de evacuar zonas vulnerables en cuanto las autoridades lo ordenen, en Estados Unidos y todos los países en la cuenca, en Centroamérica y el Caribe.

El año pasado unos cinco huracanes azotaron varios países del Caribe, sobre todo la península de Yucatán, que recibió el azote tanto de huracanes como tormentas.

Los más serios fueron 'Stan', que mató en octubre a más de 2.000 personas, la mayoría en Guatemala, y 'Wilma' que el mismo mes demolió el balneario mexicano de Cancún y mató a unas 20 personas en Estados Unidos. 'Dennis' azotó en julio a Jamaica, Haití, Cuba y Estados Unidos, y dejó 54 muertos

Cuba fue afectada por tres huracanes de gran intensidad, entre ellos 'Dennis', que dejó pérdidas por 1.400 millones de dólares, 'Wilma', por 704,2 millones y 'Rita', por 207 millones.

Expertos de la Universidad Estatal de Colorado, en su primer pronóstico para la temporada, dijeron que esperan este año la formación de 17 tormentas tropicales en el Atlántico, de las cuales nueve podrían ser huracanes, cinco de ellos intensos.

por otro lado hay un seguimiento en el indico y las areas de probabilidad de formacion de sistema tropical, se disparan en el pacifico oeste http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyrfpr.gif

En la temporada pasada hubieron unos 28 sistemas tropicales.

Yo creo que está claro que esta temporada va a ser algo por encima de lo normal, peor no va a serlo tanto como el año pasado. La cuestión está en "cuanto nos quedaremos del año pasado".

Creo que llegaremos a unas 20 o así, sistema tropicales en el atlántico.

Yo me mantengo escéptico sobre cuántos se formaran, porque la verdad, después de ver la temporada pasada, 20 me parecen pocas, pero 28 también me parecen muchas.

El problema, es que pensar que la temporada 2005, por cantidad de tormentas, vaya a ser única, se me hace difícil, sobre todo por el salto que supone respecto a 2004, da la sensación de que en 2005 comenzase algo diferente. No sé, sólo es una sensación.



El navy esta siguiendo un sistema en el pacífico este, bastante interesante, 20 kts y 1010mb de presión, además de otro en el Índico, con 15kts y presión desconocida, parece que volvemos a la juerga

Onda tropical No. 1 (23 al 27 de mayo)

La onda tropical No. 1 de la temporada se extiende a lo largo de 91°W y al Sur de 14°N, se mueve hacia el Oeste a 9 km/h, originando lluvias intensas sobre los estados del Sur y Sureste del país. Se mantiene en vigilancia por su lento desarrollo.

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/boletin/avisos/temprana/temprana.html




El año pasado empezó la temporada del Pacífico Este, el 17 de Mayo. De momento se está atrasando el comienzo de esta temporada, pero ese Sistema Tropical tiene muy buena pinta.

Saludos.


Fuente: http://smn.cna.gob.mx/

Que alegria que me dais chicos voy a ponerme a carburar

Accuweahter:

Thunderstorms have become more widespread across the eastern Pacific in the last 24 hours. But, as of Tuesday morning, none were showing signs of immediate tropical development. The most concentrated thunderstorms are currently south of Guatemala. Upper-levels winds will be light over the next few days. So, Accuweather.com will keep an eye on the area

NHC:TROPICAL WAVES...  A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W/94W TO THE S OF 14N AND HAS MOVED W   AT 5-10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A   BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH THE 1218   UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATING TWO POSSIBLE SURFACE CIRCULATIONS   NEAR 11N98W AND 11N93W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE   EXISTENCE OF BOTH CENTERS. THE CENTER NEAR 11N98W IS ANALYZED AS   A SURFACE LOW PRES 1007 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG   CONVECTION IS SLOWLY ORGANIZING WITHIN THIS BROAD AREA OF   CYCLONIC TURNING AND ALSO ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 92W AND 101W.



Los dos aparentemente le dan vida...haber yo..
Pues de momento estoy con accuweather, seguiremos el sistema, aun asi lo veo bien formado con tal giro y nucleo definido temperatura en 30ºC minimo, y vorticidad y cizalladura que deben ayudar

para donde apunta ? si se acerca a tierra para yo averiguar si hay webcams

Cita de: buscotornados en Martes 23 Mayo 2006 20:09:19 PM
para donde apunta ? si se acerca a tierra para yo averiguar si hay webcams

De momento es poca, cosa se dirige hacia el W, por lo cual no tocara tierra

   Respecto al número de sistemas tropicales, me parece recordar el año pasado, que la estimación se hacía con lo lluvioso que fuera el mes de mayo en El Salvador, el año pasado entró "Adrián", y este año viendo el GOES, parece que están teniendo un mes movidito, ¿Alguien puede confirmarlo?.
   Saludos.

pufff segun el navy el sistema del pacifico Este, esta desinchadito...pero en los satelites de movimiento no logro ver una desorganizacion total como en la infroroja del navy...en fin...esto muere pronto señores

Thunderstorms are now widespread along the Intertropical Convergence Zone in the eastern Pacific. There are even a few areas of weak low pressure. At the moment, there are no areas of concern for immediate development. But, water temperatures are in the lower and middle 80s. Upper-level winds will be light for the next several days. So, there is the chance a tropical depression will develop in the next 2 to 3 days


El accuweather no lo da por perdido, y hasta incluso posibilidad de evolucionar a mas.


A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W TO THE S OF 14N AND HAS MOVED W AT   8 KT THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE WAS LOCATED ACCURATELY AT 00Z   BASED ON 2 SHIP REPORTS. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD AREA OF   LOW PRES THAT COVERS THE AREA FROM ROUGHLY 3N TO 13N BETWEEN   107W AND 90W. SEVERAL OTHER CYCLONIC SWIRLS ARE NOTED ON IMAGERY   BUT SEEM TO BE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. A CYCLONIC SWIRL NEAR   11N92W BEARS WATCHING AS IT HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF PULLING N OF   THE ITCZ IN A DAY OR SO. CURRENTLY THE CONVECTION DESCRIBED IN   THE ITCZ PARAGRAPH